Flow Difference Method

This repository contains code and data for one county to estimate the Bayesian and Deterministic versions of the Flow Difference Method (FDM) for projecting net migration by age.

Bayesian FDM

Steps:

1. Estimate the model via estimateBayesFDMwacounty.R.
2. Extract MCMC samples via extract_rc_samples.R
3. Apply the estimates to a given total net migration via applyFDM.R

Deterministic FDM

The estimation and application is shown in applyFDM.R.

References

H. Sevcikova, J. Raymer J., A. E. Raftery (2024). Forecasting Net Migration By Age: The Flow-Difference Approach. arXiv:2411.09878.