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Last update: 2026-02-20

Time Series

Title	Date	Abstract	Comment
VETime: Vision Enhanced Zero-Shot Time Series Anomaly Detection	2026-02-18	Show Time-series anomaly detection (TSAD) requires identifying both immediate Point Anomalies and long-range Context Anomalies. However, existing foundation models face a fundamental trade-off: 1D temporal models provide fine-grained pointwise localization but lack a global contextual perspective, while 2D vision-based models capture global patterns but suffer from information bottlenecks due to a lack of temporal alignment and coarse-grained pointwise detection. To resolve this dilemma, we propose VETime, the first TSAD framework that unifies temporal and visual modalities through fine-grained visual-temporal alignment and dynamic fusion. VETime introduces a Reversible Image Conversion and a Patch-Level Temporal Alignment module to establish a shared visual-temporal timeline, preserving discriminative details while maintaining temporal sensitivity. Furthermore, we design an Anomaly Window Contrastive Learning mechanism and a Task-Adaptive Multi-Modal Fusion to adaptively integrate the complementary perceptual strengths of both modalities. Extensive experiments demonstrate that VETime significantly outperforms state-of-the-art models in zero-shot scenarios, achieving superior localization precision with lower computational overhead than current vision-based approaches. Code available at: https://github.com/yyyangcoder/VETime.
A Systematic Evaluation of Sample-Level Tokenization Strategies for MEG Foundation Models	2026-02-18	Show Recent success in natural language processing has motivated growing interest in large-scale foundation models for neuroimaging data. Such models often require discretization of continuous neural time series data, a process referred to as 'tokenization'. However, the impact of different tokenization strategies for neural data is currently poorly understood. In this work, we present a systematic evaluation of sample-level tokenization strategies for transformer-based large neuroimaging models (LNMs) applied to magnetoencephalography (MEG) data. We compare learnable and non-learnable tokenizers by examining their signal reconstruction fidelity and their impact on subsequent foundation modeling performance (token prediction, biological plausibility of generated data, preservation of subject-specific information, and performance on downstream tasks). For the learnable tokenizer, we introduce a novel approach based on an autoencoder. Experiments were conducted on three publicly available MEG datasets spanning different acquisition sites, scanners, and experimental paradigms. Our results show that both learnable and non-learnable discretization schemes achieve high reconstruction accuracy and broadly comparable performance across most evaluation criteria, suggesting that simple fixed sample-level tokenization strategies can be used in the development of neural foundation models. The code is available at https://github.com/OHBA-analysis/Cho2026_Tokenizer.	15 pa... 15 pages, 10 figures, 1 table
Still Competitive: Revisiting Recurrent Models for Irregular Time Series Prediction	2026-02-18	Show Modeling irregularly sampled multivariate time series is a persistent challenge in domains like healthcare and sensor networks. While recent works have explored a variety of complex learning architectures to solve the prediction problems for irregularly sampled time series, it remains unclear what the true benefits of some of these architectures are, and whether clever modifications of simpler and more efficient RNN-based algorithms are still competitive, i.e. they are on par with or even superior to these methods. In this work, we propose and study GRUwE: Gated Recurrent Unit with Exponential basis functions, that builds upon RNN-based architectures for observations made at irregular times. GRUwE supports both regression-based and event-based predictions in continuous time. GRUwE works by maintaining a Markov state representation of the time series that updates with the arrival of irregular observations. The Markov state update relies on two reset mechanisms: (i) observation-triggered reset to account for the new observation, and (ii) time-triggered reset that relies on learnable exponential decays, to support the predictions in continuous time. Our empirical evaluations across several real-world benchmarks on next-observation and next-event prediction tasks demonstrate that GRUwE can indeed achieve competitive or superior performance compared to the recent state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. Thanks to its simplicity, GRUwE offers compelling advantages: it is easy to implement, requires minimal hyper-parameter tuning efforts, and significantly reduces the computational overhead in the online deployment.	Publi... Published in Transactions on Machine Learning Research, 2026
Generalised Linear Models Driven by Latent Processes: Asymptotic Theory and Applications	2026-02-18	Show This paper introduces a class of generalised linear models (GLMs) driven by latent processes for modelling count, real-valued, binary, and positive continuous time series. Extending earlier latent-process regression frameworks based on Poisson or one-parameter exponential family assumptions, we allow the conditional distribution of the response to belong to a bi-parameter exponential family, with the latent process entering the conditional mean multiplicatively. This formulation substantially broadens the scope of latent-process GLMs, for instance, it naturally accommodates gamma responses for positive continuous data, enables estimation of an unknown dispersion parameter via method of moments, and avoids restrictive conditions on link functions that arise under existing formulations. We establish the asymptotic normality of the GLM estimators obtained from the GLM likelihood that ignores the latent process, and we derive the correct information matrix for valid inference. In addition, we provide a principled approach to prediction and forecasting in GLMs driven by latent processes, a topic not previously addressed in the literature. We present two real data applications on measles infections in North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany) and paleoclimatic glacial varves, which highlight the practical advantages and enhanced flexibility of the proposed modelling framework.	Paper... Paper submitted for publication
Channel Dependence, Limited Lookback Windows, and the Simplicity of Datasets: How Biased is Time Series Forecasting?	2026-02-18	Show In Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), the lookback window is a critical hyperparameter often set arbitrarily, undermining the validity of model evaluations. We argue that the lookback window must be tuned on a per-task basis to ensure fair comparisons. Our empirical results show that failing to do so can invert performance rankings, particularly when comparing univariate and multivariate methods. Experiments on standard benchmarks reposition Channel-Independent (CI) models, such as PatchTST, as state-of-the-art methods. However, we reveal this superior performance is largely an artifact of weak inter-channel correlations and simplicity of patterns within these specific datasets. Using Granger causality analysis and ODE datasets (with implicit channel correlations), we demonstrate that the true strength of multivariate Channel-Dependent (CD) models emerges on datasets with strong, inherent cross-channel dependencies, where they significantly outperform CI models. We conclude with four key recommendations for improving TSF research: (i) consider the lookback window as a key hyperparameter to tune, (ii) for standard datasets, examining CI architectures is advantageous, (iii) leverage statistical analysis of datasets to guide the choice between CI and CD architectures, and (iv) prefer CD models in scenarios with limited data.
HPMixer: Hierarchical Patching for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting	2026-02-18	Show In long-term multivariate time series forecasting, effectively capturing both periodic patterns and residual dynamics is essential. To address this within standard deep learning benchmark settings, we propose the Hierarchical Patching Mixer (HPMixer), which models periodicity and residuals in a decoupled yet complementary manner. The periodic component utilizes a learnable cycle module [7] enhanced with a nonlinear channel-wise MLP for greater expressiveness. The residual component is processed through a Learnable Stationary Wavelet Transform (LSWT) to extract stable, shift-invariant frequency-domain representations. Subsequently, a channel-mixing encoder models explicit inter-channel dependencies, while a two-level non-overlapping hierarchical patching mechanism captures coarse- and fine-scale residual variations. By integrating decoupled periodicity modeling with structured, multi-scale residual learning, HPMixer provides an effective framework. Extensive experiments on standard multivariate benchmarks demonstrate that HPMixer achieves competitive or state-of-the-art performance compared to recent baselines.	18 pa... 18 pages, 5 figures, 5 tables, PAKDD 2026
Hardware-accelerated graph neural networks: an alternative approach for neuromorphic event-based audio classification and keyword spotting on SoC FPGA	2026-02-18	Show As the volume of data recorded by embedded edge sensors increases, particularly from neuromorphic devices producing discrete event streams, there is a growing need for hardware-aware neural architectures that enable efficient, low-latency, and energy-conscious local processing. We present an FPGA implementation of event-graph neural networks for audio processing. We utilise an artificial cochlea that converts time-series signals into sparse event data, reducing memory and computation costs. Our architecture was implemented on a SoC FPGA and evaluated on two open-source datasets. For classification task, our baseline floating-point model achieves 92.7% accuracy on SHD dataset - only 2.4% below the state of the art - while requiring over 10x and 67x fewer parameters. On SSC, our models achieve 66.9-71.0% accuracy. Compared to FPGA-based spiking neural networks, our quantised model reaches 92.3% accuracy, outperforming them by up to 19.3% while reducing resource usage and latency. For SSC, we report the first hardware-accelerated evaluation. We further demonstrate the first end-to-end FPGA implementation of event-audio keyword spotting, combining graph convolutional layers with recurrent sequence modelling. The system achieves up to 95% word-end detection accuracy, with only 10.53 microsecond latency and 1.18 W power consumption, establishing a strong benchmark for energy-efficient event-driven KWS.	Under... Under revision in TRETS Journal
Machine Learning Driven Prediction of the Behavior of Biohybrid Actuators	2026-02-18	Show Skeletal muscle-based biohybrid actuators have proved to be a promising component in soft robotics, offering efficient movement. However, their intrinsic biological variability and nonlinearity pose significant challenges for controllability and predictability. To address these issues, this study investigates the application of supervised learning, a form of machine learning, to model and predict the behavior of biohybrid machines (BHMs), focusing on a muscle ring anchored on flexible polymer pillars. First, static prediction models (i.e., random forest and neural network regressors) are trained to estimate the maximum exerted force achieved from input variables such as muscle sample, electrical stimulation parameters, and baseline exerted force. Second, a dynamic modeling framework, based on Long Short-Term Memory networks, is developed to serve as a digital twin, replicating the time series of exerted forces observed in response to electrical stimulation. Both modeling approaches demonstrate high predictive accuracy. The best performance of the static models is characterized by R2 of 0.9425, whereas the dynamic model achieves R2 of 0.9956. The static models can enable optimization of muscle actuator performance for targeted applications and required force outcomes, while the dynamic model provides a foundation for developing robustly adaptive control strategies in future biohybrid robotic systems.
A Versatile Variational Quantum Kernel Framework for Non-Trivial Classification	2026-02-18	Show Quantum kernel methods are a promising branch of quantum machine learning, yet their effectiveness on diverse, high-dimensional, real-world data remains unverified. Current research has largely been limited to low-dimensional or synthetic datasets, preventing a thorough evaluation of their potential. To address this gap, we developed an algorithmic framework for variational quantum kernels utilizing resource-efficient ansätze for complex classification tasks and introduced a parameter scaling technique to accelerate convergence. We conducted a comprehensive benchmark of this framework on eight challenging, real-world and high-dimensional datasets covering tabular, image, time series, and graph data. Our results show that the proposed quantum kernels demonstrate competitive classification accuracy compared to standard classical kernels in classical simulation, such as the radial basis function (RBF) kernel. This work demonstrates that properly designed quantum kernels can function as versatile, high-performance tools, laying a foundation for quantum-enhanced applications in real-world machine learning. Further research is needed to fully assess the practical performance of quantum methods.
KnowIt: Deep Time Series Modeling and Interpretation	2026-02-18	Show KnowIt (Knowledge discovery in time series data) is a flexible framework for building deep time series models and interpreting them. It is implemented as a Python toolkit, with source code and documentation available from https://must-deep-learning.github.io/KnowIt. It imposes minimal assumptions about task specifications and decouples the definition of dataset, deep neural network architecture, and interpretability technique through well defined interfaces. This ensures the ease of importing new datasets, custom architectures, and the definition of different interpretability paradigms while maintaining on-the-fly modeling and interpretation of different aspects of a user's own time series data. KnowIt aims to provide an environment where users can perform knowledge discovery on their own complex time series data through building powerful deep learning models and explaining their behavior. With ongoing development, collaboration and application our goal is to make this a platform to progress this underexplored field and produce a trusted tool for deep time series modeling.
StarEmbed: Benchmarking Time Series Foundation Models on Astronomical Observations of Variable Stars	2026-02-18	Show Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are increasingly being adopted as highly-capable general-purpose time series representation learners. Although their training corpora are vast, they exclude astronomical time series data. Observations of stars produce peta-scale time series with unique challenges including irregular sampling and heteroskedasticity. We introduce StarEmbed, the first public benchmark for rigorous and standardized evaluation of state-of-the-art TSFMs on stellar time series observations (``light curves''). We benchmark on three scientifically-motivated downstream tasks: unsupervised clustering, supervised classification, and out-of-distribution source detection. StarEmbed integrates a catalog of expert-vetted labels with multi-variate light curves from the Zwicky Transient Facility, yielding ~40k hand-labeled light curves spread across seven astrophysical classes. We evaluate the zero-shot representation capabilities of three TSFMs (MOIRAI, Chronos, Chronos-Bolt) and a domain-specific transformer (Astromer) against handcrafted feature extraction, the long-standing baseline in the astrophysics literature. Our results demonstrate that these TSFMs, especially the Chronos models, which are trained on data completely unlike the astronomical observations, can outperform established astrophysics-specific baselines in some tasks and effectively generalize to entirely new data. In particular, TSFMs deliver state-of-the-art performance on our out-of-distribution source detection benchmark. With the first benchmark of TSFMs on astronomical time series data, we test the limits of their generalization and motivate a paradigm shift in time-domain astronomy from using task-specific, fully supervised pipelines toward adopting generic foundation model representations for the analysis of peta-scale datasets from forthcoming observatories.
Amortized Predictability-aware Training Framework for Time Series Forecasting and Classification	2026-02-18	Show Time series data are prone to noise in various domains, and training samples may contain low-predictability patterns that deviate from the normal data distribution, leading to training instability or convergence to poor local minima. Therefore, mitigating the adverse effects of low-predictability samples is crucial for time series analysis tasks such as time series forecasting (TSF) and time series classification (TSC). While many deep learning models have achieved promising performance, few consider how to identify and penalize low-predictability samples to improve model performance from the training perspective. To fill this gap, we propose a general Amortized Predictability-aware Training Framework (APTF) for both TSF and TSC. APTF introduces two key designs that enable the model to focus on high-predictability samples while still learning appropriately from low-predictability ones: (i) a Hierarchical Predictability-aware Loss (HPL) that dynamically identifies low-predictability samples and progressively expands their loss penalty as training evolves, and (ii) an amortization model that mitigates predictability estimation errors caused by model bias, further enhancing HPL's effectiveness. The code is available at https://github.com/Meteor-Stars/APTF.	This ... This work is accepted by the proceedings of the ACM Web Conference 2026 (WWW 2026). The code is available at the link https://github.com/Meteor-Stars/APTF
SEMixer: Semantics Enhanced MLP-Mixer for Multiscale Mixing and Long-term Time Series Forecasting	2026-02-18	Show Modeling multiscale patterns is crucial for long-term time series forecasting (TSF). However, redundancy and noise in time series, together with semantic gaps between non-adjacent scales, make the efficient alignment and integration of multi-scale temporal dependencies challenging. To address this, we propose SEMixer, a lightweight multiscale model designed for long-term TSF. SEMixer features two key components: a Random Attention Mechanism (RAM) and a Multiscale Progressive Mixing Chain (MPMC). RAM captures diverse time-patch interactions during training and aggregates them via dropout ensemble at inference, enhancing patch-level semantics and enabling MLP-Mixer to better model multi-scale dependencies. MPMC further stacks RAM and MLP-Mixer in a memory-efficient manner, achieving more effective temporal mixing. It addresses semantic gaps across scales and facilitates better multiscale modeling and forecasting performance. We not only validate the effectiveness of SEMixer on 10 public datasets, but also on the \textit{2025 CCF AlOps Challenge} based on 21GB real wireless network data, where SEMixer achieves third place. The code is available at the link https://github.com/Meteor-Stars/SEMixer.	This ... This work is accepted by the proceedings of the ACM Web Conference 2026 (WWW 2026). The code is available at the link https://github.com/Meteor-Stars/SEMixer
Linked Data Classification using Neurochaos Learning	2026-02-18	Show Neurochaos Learning (NL) has shown promise in recent times over traditional deep learning due to its two key features: ability to learn from small sized training samples, and low compute requirements. In prior work, NL has been implemented and extensively tested on separable and time series data, and demonstrated its superior performance on both classification and regression tasks. In this paper, we investigate the next step in NL, viz., applying NL to linked data, in particular, data that is represented in the form of knowledge graphs. We integrate linked data into NL by implementing node aggregation on knowledge graphs, and then feeding the aggregated node features to the simplest NL architecture: ChaosNet. We demonstrate the results of our implementation on homophilic graph datasets as well as heterophilic graph datasets of verying heterophily. We show better efficacy of our approach on homophilic graphs than on heterophilic graphs. While doing so, we also present our analysis of the results, as well as suggestions for future work.
Deep TPC: Temporal-Prior Conditioning for Time Series Forecasting	2026-02-18	Show LLM-for-time series (TS) methods typically treat time shallowly, injecting positional or prompt-based cues once at the input of a largely frozen decoder, which limits temporal reasoning as this information degrades through the layers. We introduce Temporal-Prior Conditioning (TPC), which elevates time to a first-class modality that conditions the model at multiple depths. TPC attaches a small set of learnable time series tokens to the patch stream; at selected layers these tokens cross-attend to temporal embeddings derived from compact, human-readable temporal descriptors encoded by the same frozen LLM, then feed temporal context back via self-attention. This disentangles time series signal and temporal information while maintaining a low parameter budget. We show that by training only the cross-attention modules and explicitly disentangling time series signal and temporal information, TPC consistently outperforms both full fine-tuning and shallow conditioning strategies, achieving state-of-the-art performance in long-term forecasting across diverse datasets. Code available at: https://github.com/fil-mp/Deep_tpc	Accep... Accepted to ICASSP 2026
TimeOmni-1: Incentivizing Complex Reasoning with Time Series in Large Language Models	2026-02-18	Show Recent advances in multimodal time series learning underscore a paradigm shift from analytics centered on basic patterns toward advanced time series understanding and reasoning. However, existing multimodal time series datasets mostly remain at the level of surface alignment and question answering, without reaching the depth of genuine reasoning. The absence of well-defined tasks that genuinely require time series reasoning, along with the scarcity of high-quality data, has limited progress in building practical time series reasoning models (TSRMs). To this end, we introduce Time Series Reasoning Suite (TSR-Suite), which formalizes four atomic tasks that span three fundamental capabilities for reasoning with time series: (1) perception, acquired through scenario understanding and causality discovery; (2) extrapolation, realized via event-aware forecasting; and (3) decision-making, developed through deliberation over perception and extrapolation. TSR-Suite is the first comprehensive time series reasoning suite that supports not only thorough evaluation but also the data pipeline and training of TSRMs. It contains more than 23K samples, of which 2.3K are carefully curated through a human-guided hierarchical annotation process. Building on this foundation, we introduce TimeOmni-1, the first unified reasoning model designed to address diverse real-world problems demanding time series reasoning. The model is trained in multiple stages, integrating a mixture of task scenarios, novel reward functions, and tailored optimizations. Experiments show that TimeOmni-1 delivers strong out-of-distribution generalization across all tasks and achieves a high rate of valid responses. It significantly improves causality discovery accuracy (64.0% vs. 35.9% with GPT-4.1) and raises the valid response rate by over 6% compared to GPT-4.1 on the event-aware forecasting task.	Accep... Accepted by the 14th International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR 2026)
Axle Sensor Fusion for Online Continual Wheel Fault Detection in Wayside Railway Monitoring	2026-02-18	Show Reliable and cost-effective maintenance is essential for railway safety, particularly at the wheel-rail interface, which is prone to wear and failure. Predictive maintenance frameworks increasingly leverage sensor-generated time-series data, yet traditional methods require manual feature engineering, and deep learning models often degrade in online settings with evolving operational patterns. This work presents a semantic-aware, label-efficient continual learning framework for railway fault diagnostics. Accelerometer signals are encoded via a Variational AutoEncoder into latent representations capturing the normal operational structure in a fully unsupervised manner. Importantly, semantic metadata, including axle counts, wheel indexes, and strain-based deformations, is extracted via AI-driven peak detection on fiber Bragg grating sensors (resistant to electromagnetic interference) and fused with the VAE embeddings, enhancing anomaly detection under unknown operational conditions. A lightweight gradient boosting supervised classifier stabilizes anomaly scoring with minimal labels, while a replay-based continual learning strategy enables adaptation to evolving domains without catastrophic forgetting. Experiments show the model detects minor imperfections due to flats and polygonization, while adapting to evolving operational conditions, such as changes in train type, speed, load, and track profiles, captured using a single accelerometer and strain gauge in wayside monitoring.
Robust Causal Discovery in Real-World Time Series with Power-Laws	2026-02-17	Show Exploring causal relationships in stochastic time series is a challenging yet crucial task with a vast range of applications, including finance, economics, neuroscience, and climate science. Many algorithms for Causal Discovery (CD) have been proposed; however, they often exhibit a high sensitivity to noise, resulting in spurious causal inferences in real data. In this paper, we observe that the frequency spectra of many real-world time series follow a power-law distribution, notably due to an inherent self-organizing behavior. Leveraging this insight, we build a robust CD method based on the extraction of power-law spectral features that amplify genuine causal signals. Our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives on both synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets with known causal structures, demonstrating its robustness and practical relevance.
Conditionally Whitened Generative Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting	2026-02-17	Show Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is challenging due to non-stationarity, inter-variable dependencies, and distribution shifts. While recent diffusion and flow matching models have shown promise, they often ignore informative priors such as conditional means and covariances. In this work, we propose Conditionally Whitened Generative Models (CW-Gen), a framework that incorporates prior information through conditional whitening. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions under which replacing the traditional terminal distribution of diffusion models, namely the standard multivariate normal, with a multivariate normal distribution parameterized by estimators of the conditional mean and covariance improves sample quality. Guided by this analysis, we design a novel Joint Mean-Covariance Estimator (JMCE) that simultaneously learns the conditional mean and sliding-window covariance. Building on JMCE, we introduce Conditionally Whitened Diffusion Models (CW-Diff) and extend them to Conditionally Whitened Flow Matching (CW-Flow). Experiments on five real-world datasets with six state-of-the-art generative models demonstrate that CW-Gen consistently enhances predictive performance, capturing non-stationary dynamics and inter-variable correlations more effectively than prior-free approaches. Empirical results further demonstrate that CW-Gen can effectively mitigate the effects of distribution shift.	Accep... Accepted by the fourteenth International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR 2026). https://openreview.net/forum?id=GG01lCopSK
SSL4EO-S12 v1.1: A Multimodal, Multiseasonal Dataset for Pretraining, Updated	2026-02-17	Show This work presents SSL4EO-S12 v1.1, a multimodal, multitemporal Earth Observation dataset designed for pretraining large-scale foundation models. Building on the success of SSL4EO-S12, this extension updates the previous version to fix geospatial alignment inaccuracies and the inefficent data structure. The dataset allows low-barrier, analysis-ready data loading while maintaining the predecessor's spatial coverage of the world's 10,000 largest cities and surrounding geographies, resulting in 246k time series with nearly one million image patches. We package each time series in Zarr file format stored in WebDataset tar shards for efficient data loading and representation of meta-information such as cloud masks. We add new modalities for elevation, land-cover, and vegetation to support multimodal pre-training. Released under the CC-BY-4.0 license, SSL4EO-S12 v1.1 facilitates open research and provides a robust foundation for future advancements in self-supervised learning and geospatial analysis. The dataset is available online through https://huggingface.co/datasets/embed2scale/SSL4EO-S12-v1.1.
Can Multimodal LLMs Perform Time Series Anomaly Detection?	2026-02-17	Show Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) has been a long-standing pillar problem in Web-scale systems and online infrastructures, such as service reliability monitoring, system fault diagnosis, and performance optimization. Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated unprecedented capabilities in time series analysis, the potential of multimodal LLMs (MLLMs), particularly vision-language models, in TSAD remains largely under-explored. One natural way for humans to detect time series anomalies is through visualization and textual description. It motivates our research question: Can multimodal LLMs perform time series anomaly detection? Existing studies often oversimplify the problem by treating point-wise anomalies as special cases of range-wise ones or by aggregating point anomalies to approximate range-wise scenarios. They limit our understanding for realistic scenarios such as multi-granular anomalies and irregular time series. To address the gap, we build a VisualTimeAnomaly benchmark to comprehensively investigate zero-shot capabilities of MLLMs for TSAD, progressively from point-, range-, to variate-wise anomalies, and extends to irregular sampling conditions. Our study reveals several key insights in multimodal MLLMs for TSAD. Built on these findings, we propose a MLLMs-based multi-agent framework TSAD-Agents to achieve automatic TSAD. Our framework comprises scanning, planning, detection, and checking agents that synergistically collaborate to reason, plan, and self-reflect to enable automatic TSAD. These agents adaptively invoke tools such as traditional methods and MLLMs and dynamically switch between text and image modalities to optimize detection performance.	ACM W... ACM Web Conference 2026 (WWW'26)
Time-Series Foundation Models for ISP Traffic Forecasting	2026-02-17	Show Accurate network-traffic forecasting enables proactive capacity planning and anomaly detection in Internet Service Provider (ISP) networks. Recent advances in time-series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated strong zero-shot and few-shot generalization across diverse domains, yet their effectiveness for computer networking remains unexplored. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of a TSFM, IBM's Tiny Time Mixer (TTM), on the CESNET-TimeSeries24 dataset, a 40-week real-world ISP telemetry corpus. We assess TTM under zero-shot and few-shot settings across multiple forecasting horizons (hours to days), aggregation hierarchies (institutions, subnets, IPs), and temporal resolutions (10-minute and hourly). Results show that TTM achieves consistent accuracy (RMSE 0.026-0.057) and stable $R^2$ scores across horizons and context lengths, outperforming or matching fully trained deep learning baselines such as GRU and LSTM. Inference latency remains under 0.05s per 100 points on a single MacBook Pro using CPU-only computation, confirming deployability without dedicated GPU or MPS acceleration. These findings highlight the potential of pretrained TSFMs to enable scalable, efficient, and training-free forecasting for modern network monitoring and management systems.	Accep... Accepted by the IEEE/IFIP Network Operations and Management Symposium (NOMS) 2026
Continuous-Time Piecewise-Linear Recurrent Neural Networks	2026-02-17	Show In dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR) we aim to recover the dynamical system (DS) underlying observed time series. Specifically, we aim to learn a generative surrogate model which approximates the underlying, data-generating DS, and recreates its long-term properties (`climate statistics'). In scientific and medical areas, in particular, these models need to be mechanistically tractable -- through their mathematical analysis we would like to obtain insight into the recovered system's workings. Piecewise-linear (PL), ReLU-based RNNs (PLRNNs) have a strong track-record in this regard, representing SOTA DSR models while allowing mathematical insight by virtue of their PL design. However, all current PLRNN variants are discrete-time maps. This is in disaccord with the assumed continuous-time nature of most physical and biological processes, and makes it hard to accommodate data arriving at irregular temporal intervals. Neural ODEs are one solution, but they do not reach the DSR performance of PLRNNs and often lack their tractability. Here we develop theory for continuous-time PLRNNs (cPLRNNs): We present a novel algorithm for training and simulating such models, bypassing numerical integration by efficiently exploiting their PL structure. We further demonstrate how important topological objects like equilibria or limit cycles can be determined semi-analytically in trained models. We compare cPLRNNs to both their discrete-time cousins as well as Neural ODEs on DSR benchmarks, including systems with discontinuities which come with hard thresholds.
The Stationarity Bias: Stratified Stress-Testing for Time-Series Imputation in Regulated Dynamical Systems	2026-02-17	Show Time-series imputation benchmarks employ uniform random masking and shape-agnostic metrics (MSE, RMSE), implicitly weighting evaluation by regime prevalence. In systems with a dominant attractor -- homeostatic physiology, nominal industrial operation, stable network traffic -- this creates a systematic \emph{Stationarity Bias}: simple methods appear superior because the benchmark predominantly samples the easy, low-entropy regime where they trivially succeed. We formalize this bias and propose a \emph{Stratified Stress-Test} that partitions evaluation into Stationary and Transient regimes. Using Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) as a testbed -- chosen for its rigorous ground-truth forcing functions (meals, insulin) that enable precise regime identification -- we establish three findings with broad implications:(i)~Stationary Efficiency: Linear interpolation achieves state-of-the-art reconstruction during stable intervals, confirming that complex architectures are computationally wasteful in low-entropy regimes.(ii)~Transient Fidelity: During critical transients (post-prandial peaks, hypoglycemic events), linear methods exhibit drastically degraded morphological fidelity (DTW), disproportionate to their RMSE -- a phenomenon we term the \emph{RMSE Mirage}, where low pointwise error masks the destruction of signal shape.(iii)~Regime-Conditional Model Selection: Deep learning models preserve both pointwise accuracy and morphological integrity during transients, making them essential for safety-critical downstream tasks. We further derive empirical missingness distributions from clinical trials and impose them on complete training data, preventing models from exploiting unrealistically clean observations and encouraging robustness under real-world missingness. This framework generalizes to any regulated system where routine stationarity dominates critical transients.
CEPAE: Conditional Entropy-Penalized Autoencoders for Time Series Counterfactuals	2026-02-17	Show The ability to accurately perform counterfactual inference on time series is crucial for decision-making in fields like finance, healthcare, and marketing, as it allows us to understand the impact of events or treatments on outcomes over time. In this paper, we introduce a new counterfactual inference approach tailored to time series data impacted by market events, which is motivated by an industrial application. Utilizing the abduction-action-prediction procedure and the Structural Causal Model framework, we first adapt methods based on variational autoencoders and adversarial autoencoders, both previously used in counterfactual literature although not in time series settings. Then, we present the Conditional Entropy-Penalized Autoencoder (CEPAE), a novel autoencoder-based approach for counterfactual inference, which employs an entropy penalization loss over the latent space to encourage disentangled data representations. We validate our approach both theoretically and experimentally on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world datasets, showing that CEPAE generally outperforms the other approaches in the evaluated metrics.
FARS: Factor Augmented Regression Scenarios in R	2026-02-17	Show In the context of macroeconomic/financial time series, the FARS package provides a comprehensive framework in R for the construction of conditional densities of the variable of interest based on the factor-augmented quantile regressions (FA-QRs) methodology, with the factors extracted from multi-level dynamic factor models (ML-DFMs) with potential overlapping group-specific factors. Furthermore, the package also allows the construction of measures of risk as well as modeling and designing economic scenarios based on the conditional densities. In particular, the package enables users to: (i) extract global and group-specific factors using a flexible multi-level factor structure; (ii) compute asymptotically valid confidence regions for the estimated factors, accounting for uncertainty in the factor loadings; (iii) obtain estimates of the parameters of the FA-QRs together with their standard deviations; (iv) recover full predictive conditional densities from estimated quantiles; (v) obtain risk measures based on extreme quantiles of the conditional densities; and (vi) estimate the conditional density and the corresponding extreme quantiles when the factors are stressed.
Benchmarking IoT Time-Series AD with Event-Level Augmentations	2026-02-17	Show Anomaly detection (AD) for safety-critical IoT time series should be judged at the event level: reliability and earliness under realistic perturbations. Yet many studies still emphasize point-level results on curated base datasets, limiting value for model selection in practice. We introduce an evaluation protocol with unified event-level augmentations that simulate real-world issues: calibrated sensor dropout, linear and log drift, additive noise, and window shifts. We also perform sensor-level probing via mask-as-missing zeroing with per-channel influence estimation to support root-cause analysis. We evaluate 14 representative models on five public anomaly datasets (SWaT, WADI, SMD, SKAB, TEP) and two industrial datasets (steam turbine, nuclear turbogenerator) using unified splits and event aggregation. There is no universal winner: graph-structured models transfer best under dropout and long events (e.g., on SWaT under additive noise F1 drops 0.804->0.677 for a graph autoencoder, 0.759->0.680 for a graph-attention variant, and 0.762->0.756 for a hybrid graph attention model); density/flow models work well on clean stationary plants but can be fragile to monotone drift; spectral CNNs lead when periodicity is strong; reconstruction autoencoders become competitive after basic sensor vetting; predictive/hybrid dynamics help when faults break temporal dependencies but remain window-sensitive. The protocol also informs design choices: on SWaT under log drift, replacing normalizing flows with Gaussian density reduces high-stress F1 from ~0.75 to ~0.57, and fixing a learned DAG gives a small clean-set gain (~0.5-1.0 points) but increases drift sensitivity by ~8x.	https... https://underline.io/events/521/sessions/21822/lecture/143905-benchmarking-iot-time-series-ad-with-event-level-augmentations?tab=poster
GenFacts-Generative Counterfactual Explanations for Multi-Variate Time Series	2026-02-17	Show Counterfactual explanations aim to enhance model transparency by showing how inputs can be minimally altered to change predictions. For multivariate time series, existing methods often generate counterfactuals that are invalid, implausible, or unintuitive. We introduce GenFacts, a generative framework based on a class-discriminative variational autoencoder. It integrates contrastive and classification-consistency objectives, prototype-based initialization, and realism-constrained optimization. We evaluate GenFacts on radar gesture data as an industrial use case and handwritten letter trajectories as an intuitive benchmark. Across both datasets, GenFacts outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in plausibility (+18.7%) and achieves the highest interpretability scores in a human study. These results highlight that plausibility and user-centered interpretability, rather than sparsity alone, are key to actionable counterfactuals in time series data.	5 pag... 5 pages, 2 figures. Accepted at ICASSP 2026
AgriWorld:A World Tools Protocol Framework for Verifiable Agricultural Reasoning with Code-Executing LLM Agents	2026-02-17	Show Foundation models for agriculture are increasingly trained on massive spatiotemporal data (e.g., multi-spectral remote sensing, soil grids, and field-level management logs) and achieve strong performance on forecasting and monitoring. However, these models lack language-based reasoning and interactive capabilities, limiting their usefulness in real-world agronomic workflows. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) excel at interpreting and generating text, but cannot directly reason over high-dimensional, heterogeneous agricultural datasets. We bridge this gap with an agentic framework for agricultural science. It provides a Python execution environment, AgriWorld, exposing unified tools for geospatial queries over field parcels, remote-sensing time-series analytics, crop growth simulation, and task-specific predictors (e.g., yield, stress, and disease risk). On top of this environment, we design a multi-turn LLM agent, Agro-Reflective, that iteratively writes code, observes execution results, and refines its analysis via an execute-observe-refine loop. We introduce AgroBench, with scalable data generation for diverse agricultural QA spanning lookups, forecasting, anomaly detection, and counterfactual "what-if" analysis. Experiments outperform text-only and direct tool-use baselines, validating execution-driven reflection for reliable agricultural reasoning.
Hybrid quantum recurrent neural network for remaining useful life prediction	2026-02-17	Show Predictive maintenance in aerospace heavily relies on accurate estimation of the remaining useful life of jet engines. In this paper, we introduce a Hybrid Quantum Recurrent Neural Network framework, combining Quantum Long Short-Term Memory layers with classical dense layers for Remaining Useful Life forecasting on NASA's Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation dataset. Each Quantum Long Short-Term Memory gate replaces conventional linear transformations with Quantum Depth-Infused circuits, allowing the network to learn high-frequency components more effectively. Experimental results demonstrate that, despite having fewer trainable parameters, the Hybrid Quantum Recurrent Neural Network achieves up to a 5% improvement over a Recurrent Neural Network based on stacked Long Short-Term Memory layers in terms of mean root-mean-square error and mean absolute error. Moreover, a thorough comparison of our method with established techniques, including Random Forest, Convolutional Neural Network, and Multilayer Perceptron, demonstrates that our approach, which achieves a Root Mean Squared Error of 15.46, surpasses these baselines by approximately 13.68%, 16.21%, and 7.87%, respectively. Nevertheless, certain advanced joint architectures still outperform it. Our findings highlight the potential of hybrid quantum-classical approaches for robust time-series forecasting under limited-data conditions, offering new avenues for enhancing reliability in predictive maintenance tasks.	11 pa... 11 pages, 5 figures. 3 tables
Learning Representations from Incomplete EHR Data with Dual-Masked Autoencoding	2026-02-16	Show Learning from electronic health records (EHRs) time series is challenging due to irregular sam- pling, heterogeneous missingness, and the resulting sparsity of observations. Prior self-supervised meth- ods either impute before learning, represent missingness through a dedicated input signal, or optimize solely for imputation, reducing their capacity to efficiently learn representations that support clinical downstream tasks. We propose the Augmented-Intrinsic Dual-Masked Autoencoder (AID-MAE), which learns directly from incomplete time series by applying an intrinsic missing mask to represent naturally missing values and an augmented mask that hides a subset of observed values for reconstruction during training. AID-MAE processes only the unmasked subset of tokens and consistently outperforms strong baselines, including XGBoost and DuETT, across multiple clinical tasks on two datasets. In addition, the learned embeddings naturally stratify patient cohorts in the representation space.	10 pages, 4 figures
Two-Part Forecasting for Time-Shifted Metrics	2026-02-16	Show Katz, Savage, and Brusch propose a two-part forecasting method for sectors where event timing differs from recording time. They treat forecasting as a time-shift operation, using univariate time series for total bookings and a Bayesian Dirichlet Auto-Regressive Moving Average (B-DARMA) model to allocate bookings across trip dates based on lead time. Analysis of Airbnb data shows that this approach is interpretable, flexible, and potentially more accurate for forecasting demand across multiple time axes.
AIRS-Bench: a Suite of Tasks for Frontier AI Research Science Agents	2026-02-16	Show LLM agents hold significant promise for advancing scientific research. To accelerate this progress, we introduce AIRS-Bench (the AI Research Science Benchmark), a suite of 20 tasks sourced from state-of-the-art machine learning papers. These tasks span diverse domains, including language modeling, mathematics, bioinformatics, and time series forecasting. AIRS-Bench tasks assess agentic capabilities over the full research lifecycle -- including idea generation, experiment analysis and iterative refinement -- without providing baseline code. The AIRS-Bench task format is versatile, enabling easy integration of new tasks and rigorous comparison across different agentic frameworks. We establish baselines using frontier models paired with both sequential and parallel scaffolds. Our results show that agents exceed human SOTA in four tasks but fail to match it in sixteen others. Even when agents surpass human benchmarks, they do not reach the theoretical performance ceiling for the underlying tasks. These findings indicate that AIRS-Bench is far from saturated and offers substantial room for improvement. We open-source the AIRS-Bench task definitions and evaluation code to catalyze further development in autonomous scientific research.	49 pa... 49 pages, 14 figures, 10 tables
A Bayesian Dirichlet Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model for Forecasting Currency Shares	2026-02-16	Show We analyze daily Airbnb service-fee shares across eleven settlement currencies, a compositional series that shows bursts of volatility after shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Standard Dirichlet time series models assume constant precision and therefore miss these episodes. We introduce B-DARMA-DARCH, a Bayesian Dirichlet autoregressive moving average model with a Dirichlet ARCH component, which lets the precision parameter follow an ARMA recursion. The specification preserves the Dirichlet likelihood so forecasts remain valid compositions while capturing clustered volatility. Simulations and out-of-sample tests show that B-DARMA-DARCH lowers forecast error and improves interval calibration relative to Dirichlet ARMA and log-ratio VARMA benchmarks, providing a concise framework for settings where both the level and the volatility of proportions matter.
Muscle Anatomy-aware Geometric Deep Learning for sEMG-based Gesture Decoding	2026-02-16	Show Robust and accurate decoding of gesture from non-invasive surface electromyography (sEMG) is important for various applications including spatial computing, healthcare, and entertainment, and has been actively pursued by researchers and industry. Majority of sEMG-based gesture decoding algorithms employ deep neural networks that are designed for Euclidean data, and may not be suitable for analyzing multi-dimensional, non-stationary time-series with long-range dependencies such as sEMG. State-of-the-art sEMG-based decoding methods also demonstrate high variability across subjects and sessions, requiring re-calibration and adaptive fine-tuning to boost performance. To address these shortcomings, this work proposes a geometric deep learning model that learns on symmetric positive definite (SPD) manifolds and leverages unsupervised domain adaptation to desensitize the model to subjects and sessions. The model captures the features in time and across sensors with multiple kernels, projects the features onto SPD manifold, learns on manifolds and projects back to Euclidean space for classification. It uses a domain-specific batch normalization layer to address variability between sessions, alleviating the need for re-calibration or fine-tuning. Experiments with publicly available benchmark gesture decoding datasets (Ninapro DB6, Flexwear-HD) demonstrate the superior generalizability of the model compared to Euclidean and other SPD-based models in the inter-session scenario, with up to 8.83 and 4.63 points improvement in accuracy, respectively. Detailed analyses reveal that the model extracts muscle-specific information for different tasks and ablation studies highlight the importance of modules introduced in the work. The proposed method pushes the state-of-the-art in sEMG-based gesture recognition and opens new research avenues for manifold-based learning for muscle signals.
Hybrid Feature Learning with Time Series Embeddings for Equipment Anomaly Prediction	2026-02-16	Show In predictive maintenance of equipment, deep learning-based time series anomaly detection has garnered significant attention; however, pure deep learning approaches often fail to achieve sufficient accuracy on real-world data. This study proposes a hybrid approach that integrates 64-dimensional time series embeddings from Granite TinyTimeMixer with 28-dimensional statistical features based on domain knowledge for HVAC equipment anomaly prediction tasks. Specifically, we combine time series embeddings extracted from a Granite TinyTimeMixer encoder fine-tuned with LoRA (Low-Rank Adaptation) and 28 types of statistical features including trend, volatility, and drawdown indicators, which are then learned using a LightGBM gradient boosting classifier. In experiments using 64 equipment units and 51,564 samples, we achieved Precision of 91--95% and ROC-AUC of 0.995 for anomaly prediction at 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day horizons. Furthermore, we achieved production-ready performance with a false positive rate of 1.1% or less and a detection rate of 88--94%, demonstrating the effectiveness of the system for predictive maintenance applications. This work demonstrates that practical anomaly detection systems can be realized by leveraging the complementary strengths between deep learning's representation learning capabilities and statistical feature engineering.	17 pa... 17 pages, 7 figures, 1 table
Rethinking the Role of LLMs in Time Series Forecasting	2026-02-16	Show Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced to time series forecasting (TSF) to incorporate contextual knowledge beyond numerical signals. However, existing studies question whether LLMs provide genuine benefits, often reporting comparable performance without LLMs. We show that such conclusions stem from limited evaluation settings and do not hold at scale. We conduct a large-scale study of LLM-based TSF (LLM4TSF) across 8 billion observations, 17 forecasting scenarios, 4 horizons, multiple alignment strategies, and both in-domain and out-of-domain settings. Our results demonstrate that \emph{LLM4TS indeed improves forecasting performance}, with especially large gains in cross-domain generalization. Pre-alignment outperforming post-alignment in over 90% of tasks. Both pretrained knowledge and model architecture of LLMs contribute and play complementary roles: pretraining is critical under distribution shifts, while architecture excels at modeling complex temporal dynamics. Moreover, under large-scale mixed distributions, a fully intact LLM becomes indispensable, as confirmed by token-level routing analysis and prompt-based improvements. Overall, Our findings overturn prior negative assessments, establish clear conditions under which LLMs are not only useful, and provide practical guidance for effective model design. We release our code at https://github.com/EIT-NLP/LLM4TSF.
A Meta-Knowledge-Augmented LLM Framework for Hyperparameter Optimization in Time-Series Forecasting	2026-02-16	Show Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) plays a central role in the performance of deep learning models, yet remains computationally expensive and difficult to interpret, particularly for time-series forecasting. While Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a standard approach, it typically treats tuning tasks independently and provides limited insight into its decisions. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) offer new opportunities to incorporate structured prior knowledge and reasoning into optimization pipelines. We introduce LLM-AutoOpt, a hybrid HPO framework that combines BO with LLM-based contextual reasoning. The framework encodes dataset meta-features, model descriptions, historical optimization outcomes, and target objectives as structured meta-knowledge within LLM prompts, using BO to initialize the search and mitigate cold-start effects. This design enables context-aware and stable hyperparameter refinement while exposing the reasoning behind optimization decisions. Experiments on a multivariate time series forecasting benchmark demonstrate that LLM-AutoOpt achieves improved predictive performance and more interpretable optimization behavior compared to BO and LLM baselines without meta-knowledge.
Challenges and Requirements for Benchmarking Time Series Foundation Models	2026-02-16	Show Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) represent a new paradigm for time-series forecasting, promising zero-shot predictions without the need for task-specific training or fine-tuning. However, similar to Large Language Models (LLMs), the evaluation of TSFMs is challenging: as training corpora grow increasingly large, it becomes difficult to ensure the integrity of the test sets used for benchmarking. Our investigation of existing TSFM evaluation studies identifies two kinds of information leakage: (1) train-test sample overlaps arising from the multi-purpose reuse of datasets and (2) temporal overlap of correlated train and test series. Ignoring these forms of information leakage when benchmarking TSFMs risks producing overly optimistic performance estimates that fail to generalize to real-world settings. We therefore argue for the development of novel evaluation methodologies that avoid pitfalls already observed in both LLM and classical time-series benchmarking, and we call on the research community to adopt principled approaches to safeguard the integrity of TSFM evaluation.
TokaMind: A Multi-Modal Transformer Foundation Model for Tokamak Plasma Dynamics	2026-02-16	Show We present TokaMind, an open-source foundation model framework for fusion plasma modeling, based on a Multi-Modal Transformer (MMT) and trained on heterogeneous tokamak diagnostics from the publicly available MAST dataset. TokaMind supports multiple data modalities (time-series, 2D profiles, and videos) with different sampling rates, robust missing-signal handling, and efficient task adaptation via selectively loading and freezing four model components. To represent multi-modal signals, we use a training-free Discrete Cosine Transform embedding (DCT3D) and provide a clean interface for alternative embeddings (e.g., Variational Autoencoders - VAEs). We evaluate TokaMind on the recently introduced MAST benchmark TokaMark, comparing training and embedding strategies. Our results show that fine-tuned TokaMind outperforms the benchmark baseline on all but one task, and that, for several tasks, lightweight fine-tuning yields better performance than training the same architecture from scratch under a matched epoch budget. These findings highlight the benefits of multi-modal pretraining for tokamak plasma dynamics and provide a practical, extensible foundation for future fusion modeling tasks. Training code and model weights will be made publicly available.
Kernel-based optimization of measurement operators for quantum reservoir computers	2026-02-16	Show Finding optimal measurement operators is crucial for the performance of quantum reservoir computers (QRCs), since they employ a fixed quantum feature map. We formulate the training of both stateless (quantum extreme learning machines, QELMs) and stateful (memory dependent) QRCs in the framework of kernel ridge regression. This approach renders an optimal measurement operator that minimizes prediction error for a given reservoir and training dataset. For large qubit numbers, this method is more efficient than the conventional training of QRCs. We discuss efficiency and practical implementation strategies, including Pauli basis decomposition and operator diagonalization, to adapt the optimal observable to hardware constraints. Numerical experiments on image classification and time series prediction tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, which can also be applied to other quantum ML models.	26 pages, 4 figures
VCDF: A Validated Consensus-Driven Framework for Time Series Causal Discovery	2026-02-16	Show Time series causal discovery is essential for understanding dynamic systems, yet many existing methods remain sensitive to noise, non-stationarity, and sampling variability. We propose the Validated Consensus-Driven Framework (VCDF), a simple and method-agnostic layer that improves robustness by evaluating the stability of causal relations across blocked temporal subsets. VCDF requires no modification to base algorithms and can be applied to methods such as VAR-LiNGAM and PCMCI. Experiments on synthetic datasets show that VCDF improves VAR-LiNGAM by approximately 0.08-0.12 in both window and summary F1 scores across diverse data characteristics, with gains most pronounced for moderate-to-long sequences. The framework also benefits from longer sequences, yielding up to 0.18 absolute improvement on time series of length 1000 and above. Evaluations on simulated fMRI data and IT-monitoring scenarios further demonstrate enhanced stability and structural accuracy under realistic noise conditions. VCDF provides an effective reliability layer for time series causal discovery without altering underlying modeling assumptions.	Accep... Accepted to Pacific-Asia Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (PAKDD) 2026
A Decomposable Forward Process in Diffusion Models for Time-Series Forecasting	2026-02-16	Show We introduce a model-agnostic forward diffusion process for time-series forecasting that decomposes signals into spectral components, preserving structured temporal patterns such as seasonality more effectively than standard diffusion. Unlike prior work that modifies the network architecture or diffuses directly in the frequency domain, our proposed method alters only the diffusion process itself, making it compatible with existing diffusion backbones (e.g., DiffWave, TimeGrad, CSDI). By staging noise injection according to component energy, it maintains high signal-to-noise ratios for dominant frequencies throughout the diffusion trajectory, thereby improving the recoverability of long-term patterns. This strategy enables the model to maintain the signal structure for a longer period in the forward process, leading to improved forecast quality. Across standard forecasting benchmarks, we show that applying spectral decomposition strategies, such as the Fourier or Wavelet transform, consistently improves upon diffusion models using the baseline forward process, with negligible computational overhead. The code for this paper is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/D-FDP-4A29.	submitted to ICML'26
Predictive Query Language: A Domain-Specific Language for Predictive Modeling on Relational Databases	2026-02-16	Show The purpose of predictive modeling on relational data is to predict future or missing values in a relational database, for example, future purchases of a user, risk of readmission of the patient, or the likelihood that a financial transaction is fraudulent. Typically powered by machine learning methods, predictive models are used in recommendations, financial fraud detection, supply chain optimization, and other systems, providing billions of predictions every day. However, training a machine learning model requires manual work to extract the required training examples - prediction entities and target labels - from the database, which is slow, laborious, and prone to mistakes. Here, we present the Predictive Query Language (PQL), an SQL-inspired declarative language for defining predictive tasks on relational databases. PQL allows specifying a predictive task in a single declarative query, enabling the automatic computation of training labels for a large variety of machine learning tasks, such as regression, classification, time-series forecasting, and recommender systems. PQL is already successfully integrated and used in a collection of use cases as part of a predictive AI platform. The versatility of the language can be demonstrated through its many ongoing use cases, including financial fraud, item recommendations, and workload prediction. We demonstrate its versatile design through two implementations; one for small-scale, low-latency use and one that can handle large-scale databases.
Covariance-Aware Transformers for Quadratic Programming and Decision Making	2026-02-16	Show We explore the use of transformers for solving quadratic programs and how this capability benefits decision-making problems that involve covariance matrices. We first show that the linear attention mechanism can provably solve unconstrained QPs by tokenizing the matrix variables (e.g.~$A$ of the objective $\frac{1}{2}x^\top Ax+b^\top x$) row-by-row and emulating gradient descent iterations. Furthermore, by incorporating MLPs, a transformer block can solve (i) $\ell_1$-penalized QPs by emulating iterative soft-thresholding and (ii) $\ell_1$-constrained QPs when equipped with an additional feedback loop. Our theory motivates us to introduce Time2Decide: a generic method that enhances a time series foundation model (TSFM) by explicitly feeding the covariance matrix between the variates. We empirically find that Time2Decide uniformly outperforms the base TSFM model for the classical portfolio optimization problem that admits an $\ell_1$-constrained QP formulation. Remarkably, Time2Decide also outperforms the classical "Predict-then-Optimize (PtO)" procedure, where we first forecast the returns and then explicitly solve a constrained QP, in suitable settings. Our results demonstrate that transformers benefit from explicit use of second-order statistics, and this can enable them to effectively solve complex decision-making problems, like portfolio construction, in one forward pass.
MixLinear: Extreme Low Resource Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with 0.1K Parameters	2026-02-16	Show Recently, there has been a growing interest in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), which involves predicting long-term future values by analyzing a large amount of historical time-series data to identify patterns and trends. There exist significant challenges in LTSF due to its complex temporal dependencies and high computational demands. Although Transformer-based models offer high forecasting accuracy, they are often too compute-intensive to be deployed on devices with hardware constraints. On the other hand, the linear models aim to reduce the computational overhead by employing either decomposition methods in the time domain or compact representations in the frequency domain. In this paper, we propose MixLinear, an ultra-lightweight multivariate time series forecasting model specifically designed for resource-constrained devices. MixLinear effectively captures both temporal and frequency domain features by modeling intra-segment and inter-segment variations in the time domain and extracting frequency variations from a low-dimensional latent space in the frequency domain. By reducing the parameter scale of a downsampled $n$-length input/output one-layer linear model from $O(n^2)$ to $O(n)$, MixLinear achieves efficient computation without sacrificing accuracy. Extensive evaluations with four benchmark datasets show that MixLinear attains forecasting performance comparable to, or surpassing, state-of-the-art models with significantly fewer parameters ($0.1K$), which makes it well-suited for deployment on devices with limited computational capacity.
HiVid: LLM-Guided Video Saliency For Content-Aware VOD And Live Streaming	2026-02-15	Show Content-aware streaming requires dynamic, chunk-level importance weights to optimize subjective quality of experience (QoE). However, direct human annotation is prohibitively expensive while vision-saliency models generalize poorly. We introduce HiVid, the first framework to leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) as a scalable human proxy to generate high-fidelity weights for both Video-on-Demand (VOD) and live streaming. We address 3 non-trivial challenges: (1) To extend LLMs' limited modality and circumvent token limits, we propose a perception module to assess frames in a local context window, autoregressively building a coherent understanding of the video. (2) For VOD with rating inconsistency across local windows, we propose a ranking module to perform global re-ranking with a novel LLM-guided merge-sort algorithm. (3) For live streaming which requires low-latency, online inference without future knowledge, we propose a prediction module to predict future weights with a multi-modal time series model, which comprises a content-aware attention and adaptive horizon to accommodate asynchronous LLM inference. Extensive experiments show HiVid improves weight prediction accuracy by up to 11.5% for VOD and 26% for live streaming over SOTA baselines. Real-world user study validates HiVid boosts streaming QoE correlation by 14.7%.	ICLR 2026
TS-Haystack: A Multi-Scale Retrieval Benchmark for Time Series Language Models	2026-02-15	Show Time Series Language Models (TSLMs) are emerging as unified models for reasoning over continuous signals in natural language. However, long-context retrieval remains a major limitation: existing models are typically trained and evaluated on short sequences, while real-world time-series sensor streams can span millions of datapoints. This mismatch requires precise temporal localization under strict computational constraints, a regime that is not captured by current benchmarks. We introduce TS-Haystack, a long-context temporal retrieval benchmark comprising ten task types across four categories: direct retrieval, temporal reasoning, multi-step reasoning and contextual anomaly. The benchmark uses controlled needle insertion by embedding short activity bouts into longer longitudinal accelerometer recordings, enabling systematic evaluation across context lengths ranging from seconds to 2 hours per sample. We hypothesize that existing TSLM time series encoders overlook temporal granularity as context length increases, creating a task-dependent effect: compression aids classification but impairs retrieval of localized events. Across multiple model and encoding strategies, we observe a consistent divergence between classification and retrieval behavior. Learned latent compression preserves or improves classification accuracy at compression ratios up to 176$\times$, but retrieval performance degrades with context length, incurring in the loss of temporally localized information. These results highlight the importance of architectural designs that decouple sequence length from computational complexity while preserving temporal fidelity.	18 pa... 18 pages, 13 figures, 10 tables (main paper: 5 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables)
Neural Optimal Transport in Hilbert Spaces: Characterizing Spurious Solutions and Gaussian Smoothing	2026-02-15	Show We study Neural Optimal Transport in infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces. In non-regular settings, Semi-dual Neural OT often generates spurious solutions that fail to accurately capture target distributions. We analytically characterize this spurious solution problem using the framework of regular measures, which generalize Lebesgue absolute continuity in finite dimensions. To resolve ill-posedness, we extend the semi-dual framework via a Gaussian smoothing strategy based on Brownian motion. Our primary theoretical contribution proves that under a regular source measure, the formulation is well-posed and recovers a unique Monge map. Furthermore, we establish a sharp characterization for the regularity of smoothed measures, proving that the success of smoothing depends strictly on the kernel of the covariance operator. Empirical results on synthetic functional data and time-series datasets demonstrate that our approach effectively suppresses spurious solutions and outperforms existing baselines.	31 pages, 3 figures
UniST-Pred: A Robust Unified Framework for Spatio-Temporal Traffic Forecasting in Transportation Networks Under Disruptions	2026-02-15	Show Spatio-temporal traffic forecasting is a core component of intelligent transportation systems, supporting various downstream tasks such as signal control and network-level traffic management. In real-world deployments, forecasting models must operate under structural and observational uncertainties, conditions that are rarely considered in model design. Recent approaches achieve strong short-term predictive performance by tightly coupling spatial and temporal modeling, often at the cost of increased complexity and limited modularity. In contrast, efficient time-series models capture long-range temporal dependencies without relying on explicit network structure. We propose UniST-Pred, a unified spatio-temporal forecasting framework that first decouples temporal modeling from spatial representation learning, then integrates both through adaptive representation-level fusion. To assess robustness of the proposed approach, we construct a dataset based on an agent-based, microscopic traffic simulator (MATSim) and evaluate UniST-Pred under severe network disconnection scenarios. Additionally, we benchmark UniST-Pred on standard traffic prediction datasets, demonstrating its competitive performance against existing well-established models despite a lightweight design. The results illustrate that UniST-Pred maintains strong predictive performance across both real-world and simulated datasets, while also yielding interpretable spatio-temporal representations under infrastructure disruptions. The source code and the generated dataset are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/UniST-Pred-EF27
EIDOS: Latent-Space Predictive Learning for Time Series Foundation Models	2026-02-15	Show Most time series foundation models are pretrained by directly predicting future observations, which often yields weakly structured latent representations that capture surface noise rather than coherent and predictable temporal dynamics. In this work, we introduce EIDOS, a foundation model family that shifts pretraining from future value prediction to latent-space predictive learning. We train a causal Transformer to predict the evolution of latent representations, encouraging the emergence of structured and temporally coherent latent states. To ensure stable targets for latent-space learning, we design a lightweight aggregation branch to construct target representations. EIDOS is optimized via a joint objective that integrates latent-space alignment, observational grounding to anchor representations to the input signal, and direct forecasting supervision. On the GIFT-Eval benchmark, EIDOS mitigates structural fragmentation in the representation space and achieves state-of-the-art performance. These results demonstrate that constraining models to learn predictable latent dynamics is a principled step toward more robust and reliable time series foundation models.
Vision-Based Early Fault Diagnosis and Self-Recovery for Strawberry Harvesting Robots	2026-02-15	Show Strawberry harvesting robots faced persistent challenges such as low integration of visual perception, fruit-gripper misalignment, empty grasping/misgrasp, and strawberry slippage from the gripper due to insufficient gripping force, all of which compromised harvesting stability and efficiency in orchard environments. To overcome these issues, this paper proposed a visual fault diagnosis and self-recovery framework that integrated multi-task perception with corrective control strategies. At the core of this framework was SRR-Net, an end-to-end multi-task perception model that simultaneously performed strawberry detection, segmentation, and ripeness estimation, thereby unifying visual perception with fault diagnosis.Based on this integrated perception, a relative error compensation method based on the simultaneous target-gripper detection was designed to address positional misalignment, correcting deviations when error exceeded the tolerance threshold.To mitigate empty grasping/misgrasp and fruit-slippage faults, an early abort strategy was implemented. A micro-optical camera embedded in the end-effector provided real-time visual feedback, enabling grasp classification during the deflating stage and strawberry slip prediction during snap-off through MobileNet V3-Small classifier and a time-series LSTM classifier. Experiments demonstrated that SRR-Net maintained high perception accuracy. For detection, it achieved a precision of 0.895 and recall of 0.813 on strawberries, and 0.972/0.958 on hands. In segmentation, it yielded a precision of 0.887 and recall of 0.747 for strawberries, and 0.974/0.947 for hands. For ripeness estimation, SRR-Net attained a mean absolute error of 0.035, while simultaneously supporting multi-task perception and sustaining a competitive inference speed of 163.35 FPS.
OpenTSLM: Time-Series Language Models for Reasoning over Multivariate Medical Text- and Time-Series Data	2026-02-14	Show LLMs have emerged as powerful tools for interpreting multimodal data. In medicine, they hold particular promise for synthesizing large volumes of clinical information into actionable insights and digital health applications. Yet, a major limitation remains their inability to handle time series. To overcome this gap, we present OpenTSLM, a family of Time Series Language Models (TSLMs) created by integrating time series as a native modality to pretrained LLMs, enabling reasoning over multiple time series of any length. We investigate two architectures for OpenTSLM. The first, OpenTSLM-SoftPrompt, models time series implicitly by concatenating learnable time series tokens with text tokens via soft prompting. Although parameter-efficient, we hypothesize that explicit time series modeling scales better and outperforms implicit approaches. We thus introduce OpenTSLM-Flamingo, which integrates time series with text via cross-attention. We benchmark both variants against baselines that treat time series as text tokens or plots, across a suite of text-time-series Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning tasks. We introduce three datasets: HAR-CoT, Sleep-CoT, and ECG-QA-CoT. Across all, OpenTSLM models outperform baselines, reaching 69.9 F1 in sleep staging and 65.4 in HAR, compared to 9.05 and 52.2 for finetuned text-only models. Notably, even 1B-parameter OpenTSLM models surpass GPT-4o (15.47 and 2.95). OpenTSLM-Flamingo matches OpenTSLM-SoftPrompt in performance and outperforms on longer sequences, while maintaining stable memory requirements. By contrast, SoftPrompt grows exponentially in memory with sequence length, requiring around 110 GB compared to 40 GB VRAM when training on ECG-QA with LLaMA-3B. Expert reviews by clinicians find strong reasoning capabilities exhibited by OpenTSLMs on ECG-QA. To facilitate further research, we provide all code, datasets, and models open-source.
MarcoPolo: A Zero-Permission Attack for Location Type Inference from the Magnetic Field using Mobile Devices	2026-02-14	Show Location information extracted from mobile devices has been largely exploited to reveal our routines, significant places, and interests just to name a few. Given the sensitivity of the information it reveals, location access is protected by mobile operating systems and users have control over which applications can access it. We argue that applications can still infer the coarse-grain location information by using alternative sensors that are available in off-the-shelf mobile devices that do not require any permissions from the users. In this paper we present a zero-permission attack based on the use of the in-built magnetometer, considering a variety of methods for identifying location-types from their magnetic signature. We implement the proposed approach by using four different techniques for time-series classification. In order to evaluate the approach, we conduct an in-the-wild study to collect a dataset of nearly 70 hours of magnetometer readings with six different phones at 66 locations, each accompanied by a label that classifies it as belonging to one of six selected categories. Finally, using this dataset, we quantify the performance of all models based on two evaluation criteria: (i) leave-a-place-out (using the test data collected from an unknown place), and (ii) leave-a-device-out (using the test data collected from an unknown device) showing that we are able to achieve 40.5% and 39.5% accuracy in classifying the location-type for each evaluation criteria respectively against a random baseline of approximately 16.7% for both of them.	22 pa... 22 pages, 6 figures, 4 tables. Published at the 23rd International Conference on Cryptology and Network Security (CANS 2024)
A Quadratic Link between Out-of-Sample $R^2$ and Directional Accuracy	2026-02-14	Show This study provides a novel perspective on the metric disconnect phenomenon in financial time series forecasting through an analytical link that reconciles the out-of-sample $R^2$ ($R^2_{\text{OOS}}$) and directional accuracy (DA). In particular, using the random walk model as a baseline and assuming that sign correctness is independent of the realized magnitude, we show that these two metrics exhibit a quadratic relationship for MSE-optimal point forecasts. For point forecasts with modest DAs, the theoretical value of $R^2_{\text{OOS}}$ is intrinsically negligible. Thus, a negative empirical $R^2_{\text{OOS}}$ is expected if the model is suboptimal or affected by finite sample noise.
TKN: Transformer-based Keypoint Prediction Network For Real-time Video Prediction	2026-02-14	Show Video prediction is a complex time-series forecasting task with great potential in many use cases. However, traditional methods prioritize accuracy and overlook slow prediction speeds due to complex model structures, redundant information, and excessive GPU memory consumption. These methods often predict frames sequentially, making acceleration difficult and limiting their applicability in real-time scenarios like danger prediction and warning.Therefore, we propose a transformer-based keypoint prediction neural network (TKN). TKN extracts dynamic content from video frames in an unsupervised manner, reducing redundant feature computation. And, TKN uses an acceleration matrix to reduce the computational cost of attention and employs a parallel computing structure for prediction acceleration. To the best of our knowledge, TKN is the first real-time video prediction solution that achieves a prediction rate of 1,176 fps, significantly reducing computation costs while maintaining other performance. Qualitative and quantitative experiments on multiple datasets have demonstrated the superiority of our method, suggesting that TKN has great application potential.
AnomaMind: Agentic Time Series Anomaly Detection with Tool-Augmented Reasoning	2026-02-14	Show Time series anomaly detection is critical in many real-world applications, where effective solutions must localize anomalous regions and support reliable decision-making under complex settings. However, most existing methods frame anomaly detection as a purely discriminative prediction task with fixed feature inputs, rather than an evidence-driven diagnostic process. As a result, they often struggle when anomalies exhibit strong context dependence or diverse patterns. We argue that these limitations stem from the lack of adaptive feature preparation, reasoning-aware detection, and iterative refinement during inference. To address these challenges, we propose AnomaMind, an agentic time series anomaly detection framework that reformulates anomaly detection as a sequential decision-making process. AnomaMind operates through a structured workflow that progressively localizes anomalous intervals in a coarse-to-fine manner, augments detection through multi-turn tool interactions for adaptive feature preparation, and refines anomaly decisions via self-reflection. The workflow is supported by a set of reusable tool engines, enabling context-aware diagnostic analysis. A key design of AnomaMind is an explicitly designed hybrid inference mechanism for tool-augmented anomaly detection. In this mechanism, general-purpose models are responsible for autonomous tool interaction and self-reflective refinement, while core anomaly detection decisions are learned through reinforcement learning under verifiable workflow-level feedback, enabling task-specific optimization within a flexible reasoning framework. Extensive experiments across diverse settings demonstrate that AnomaMind consistently improves anomaly detection performance. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/AnomaMind.
Cast-R1: Learning Tool-Augmented Sequential Decision Policies for Time Series Forecasting	2026-02-14	Show Time series forecasting has long been dominated by model-centric approaches that formulate prediction as a single-pass mapping from historical observations to future values. Despite recent progress, such formulations often struggle in complex and evolving settings, largely because most forecasting models lack the ability to autonomously acquire informative evidence, reason about potential future changes, or revise predictions through iterative decision processes. In this work, we propose Cast-R1, a learned time series forecasting framework that reformulates forecasting as a sequential decision-making problem. Cast-R1 introduces a memory-based state management mechanism that maintains decision-relevant information across interaction steps, enabling the accumulation of contextual evidence to support long-horizon reasoning. Building on this formulation, forecasting is carried out through a tool-augmented agentic workflow, in which the agent autonomously interacts with a modular toolkit to extract statistical features, invoke lightweight forecasting models for decision support, perform reasoning-based prediction, and iteratively refine forecasts through self-reflection. To train Cast-R1, we adopt a two-stage learning strategy that combines supervised fine-tuning with multi-turn reinforcement learning, together with a curriculum learning scheme that progressively increases task difficulty to improve policy learning. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world time series datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of Cast-R1. We hope this work provides a practical step towards further exploration of agentic paradigms for time series modeling. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/Cast-R1-TS.
MEMTS: Internalizing Domain Knowledge via Parameterized Memory for Retrieval-Free Domain Adaptation of Time Series Foundation Models	2026-02-14	Show While Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have demonstrated exceptional performance in generalized forecasting, their performance often degrades significantly when deployed in real-world vertical domains characterized by temporal distribution shifts and domain-specific periodic structures. Current solutions are primarily constrained by two paradigms: Domain-Adaptive Pretraining (DAPT), which improves short-term domain fitting but frequently disrupts previously learned global temporal patterns due to catastrophic forgetting; and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), which incorporates external knowledge but introduces substantial retrieval overhead. This creates a severe scalability bottleneck that fails to meet the high-efficiency requirements of real-time stream processing. To break this impasse, we propose Memory for Time Series (MEMTS), a lightweight and plug-and-play method for retrieval-free domain adaptation in time series forecasting. The key component of MEMTS is a Knowledge Persistence Module (KPM), which internalizes domain-specific temporal dynamics, such as recurring seasonal patterns and trends into a compact set of learnable latent prototypes. In doing so, it transforms fragmented historical observations into continuous, parameterized knowledge representations. This paradigm shift enables MEMTS to achieve accurate domain adaptation with constant-time inference and near-zero latency, while effectively mitigating catastrophic forgetting of general temporal patterns, all without requiring any architectural modifications to the frozen TSFM backbone. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate the SOTA performance of MEMTS.
NeuroMambaLLM: Dynamic Graph Learning of fMRI Functional Connectivity in Autistic Brains Using Mamba and Language Model Reasoning	2026-02-14	Show Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong semantic reasoning across multimodal domains. However, their integration with graph-based models of brain connectivity remains limited. In addition, most existing fMRI analysis methods rely on static Functional Connectivity (FC) representations, which obscure transient neural dynamics critical for neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism. Recent state-space approaches, including Mamba, model temporal structure efficiently, but are typically used as standalone feature extractors without explicit high-level reasoning. We propose NeuroMambaLLM, an end-to-end framework that integrates dynamic latent graph learning and selective state-space temporal modelling with LLMs. The proposed method learns the functional connectivity dynamically from raw Blood-Oxygen-Level-Dependent (BOLD) time series, replacing fixed correlation graphs with adaptive latent connectivity while suppressing motion-related artifacts and capturing long-range temporal dependencies. The resulting dynamic brain representations are projected into the embedding space of an LLM model, where the base language model remains frozen and lightweight low-rank adaptation (LoRA) modules are trained for parameter-efficient alignment. This design enables the LLM to perform both diagnostic classification and language-based reasoning, allowing it to analyze dynamic fMRI patterns and generate clinically meaningful textual reports.
The Accuracy Smoothness Dilemma in Prediction: a Novel Multivariate M-SSA Forecast Approach	2026-02-14	Show Forecasting presents a complex estimation challenge, as it involves balancing multiple, often conflicting, priorities and objectives. Conventional forecast optimization methods typically emphasize a single metric--such as minimizing the mean squared error (MSE)--which may neglect other crucial aspects of predictive performance. To address this limitation, the recently developed Smooth Sign Accuracy (SSA) framework extends the traditional MSE approach by simultaneously accounting for sign accuracy, MSE, and the frequency of sign changes in the predictor. This addresses a fundamental trade-off--the so-called accuracy-smoothness (AS) dilemma--in prediction. We extend this approach to the multivariate M-SSA, leveraging the original criterion to incorporate cross-sectional information across multiple time series. As a result, the M-SSA criterion enables the integration of various design objectives related to AS forecasting performance, effectively generalizing conventional MSE-based metrics. To demonstrate its practical applicability and versatility, we explore the application of the M-SSA in three primary domains: forecasting, real-time signal extraction (nowcasting), and smoothing. These case studies illustrate the framework's capacity to adapt to different contexts while effectively managing inherent trade-offs in predictive modelling.
Physics Aware Neural Networks: Denoising for Magnetic Navigation	2026-02-14	Show Magnetic-anomaly navigation, leveraging small-scale variations in the Earth's magnetic field, is a promising alternative when GPS is unavailable or compromised. Airborne systems face a key challenge in extracting geomagnetic field data: the aircraft itself induces magnetic noise. Although the classical Tolles-Lawson model addresses this, it inadequately handles stochastically corrupted magnetic data required for navigation. To address stochastic noise, we propose a framework based on two physics-based constraints: divergence-free vector field and E(3)-equivariance. These ensure the learned magnetic field obeys Maxwell's equations and that outputs transform correctly with sensor position/orientation. The divergence-free constraint is implemented by training a neural network to output a vector potential $A$, with the magnetic field defined as its curl. For E(3)-equivariance, we use tensor products of geometric tensors representable via spherical harmonics with known rotational transformations. Enforcing physical consistency and restricting the admissible function space acts as an implicit regularizer that improves spatio-temporal performance. We present ablation studies evaluating each constraint alone and jointly across CNNs, MLPs, Liquid Time Constant models, and Contiformers. Continuous-time dynamics and long-term memory are critical for modelling magnetic time series; the Contiformer architecture, which provides both, outperforms state-of-the-art methods. To mitigate data scarcity, we generate synthetic datasets using the World Magnetic Model (WMM) with time-series conditional GANs, producing realistic, temporally consistent magnetic sequences across varied trajectories and environments. Experiments show that embedding these constraints significantly improves predictive accuracy and physical plausibility, outperforming classical and unconstrained deep learning approaches.
LEAD-Drift: Real-time and Explainable Intent Drift Detection by Learning a Data-Driven Risk Score	2026-02-14	Show Intent-Based Networking (IBN) simplifies network management, but its reliability is challenged by "intent drift", where the network's state gradually deviates from its intended goal, often leading to silent failures. Conventional approaches struggle to detect the subtle, early stages of intent drift, raising alarms only when degradation is significant and failure is imminent, which limits their effectiveness for proactive assurance. To address this, we propose LEAD-Drift, a framework that detects intent drift in real time to enable proactive failure prevention. LEAD-Drift's core contribution is reformulating intent failure detection as a supervised learning problem by training a lightweight neural network on fixed-horizon labels to predict a future risk score. The model's raw output is then smoothed with an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and passed through a statistically tuned threshold to generate robust, real-time alerts. Furthermore, we enhance the framework with two key features for operational intelligence: a multi-horizon modeling technique for dynamic time-to-failure estimation, and per-alert explainability using SHAP to identify root-cause KPIs. Our evaluation on a time-series dataset shows LEAD-Drift provides significantly earlier warnings, improving the average lead time by 7.3 minutes (+17.8%) compared to a distance-based baseline. It also reduces alert noise by 80.2% compared to a weighted-KPI heuristic, with only a minor trade-off in lead time. These results demonstrate that LEAD-Drift as a highly effective, interpretable, and operationally efficient solution for proactive network assurance in IBN.	Copyr... Copyright 2026 IEEE. Accepted for publication in IEEE ICC 2026. This is a author version. 6 pages
Joint Time Series Chain: Detecting Unusual Evolving Trend across Time Series	2026-02-14	Show Time series chain (TSC) is a recently introduced concept that captures the evolving patterns in large scale time series. Informally, a time series chain is a temporally ordered set of subsequences, in which consecutive subsequences in the chain are similar to one another, but the last and the first subsequences maybe be dissimilar. Time series chain has the great potential to reveal latent unusual evolving trend in the time series, or identify precursor of important events in a complex system. Unfortunately, existing definitions of time series chains only consider finding chains in a single time series. As a result, they are likely to miss unexpected evolving patterns in interrupted time series, or across two related time series. To address this limitation, in this work, we introduce a new definition called \textit{Joint Time Series Chain}, which is specially designed for the task of finding unexpected evolving trend across interrupted time series or two related time series. Our definition focuses on mitigating the robustness issues caused by the gap or interruption in the time series. We further propose an effective ranking criterion to identify the best chain. We demonstrate that our proposed approach outperforms existing TSC work in locating unusual evolving patterns through extensive empirical evaluations. We further demonstrate the utility of our work with a real-life manufacturing application from Intel. Our source code is publicly available at the supporting page https://github.com/lizhang-ts/JointTSC .
SWIFT: Mapping Sub-series with Wavelet Decomposition Improves Time Series Forecasting	2026-02-14	Show In recent work on time-series prediction, Transformers and even large language models have garnered significant attention due to their strong capabilities in sequence modeling. However, in practical deployments, time-series prediction often requires operation in resource-constrained environments, such as edge devices, which are unable to handle the computational overhead of large models. To address such scenarios, some lightweight models have been proposed, but they exhibit poor performance on non-stationary sequences. In this paper, we propose $\textit{SWIFT}$, a lightweight model that is not only powerful, but also efficient in deployment and inference for Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF). Our model is based on three key points: (i) Utilizing wavelet transform to perform lossless downsampling of time series. (ii) Achieving cross-band information fusion with a learnable filter. (iii) Using only one shared linear layer or one shallow MLP for sub-series' mapping. We conduct comprehensive experiments, and the results show that $\textit{SWIFT}$ achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on multiple datasets, offering a promising method for edge computing and deployment in this task. Moreover, it is noteworthy that the number of parameters in $\textit{SWIFT-Linear}$ is only 25% of what it would be with a single-layer linear model for time-domain prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/LancelotXWX/SWIFT.
Locally Private Parametric Methods for Change-Point Detection	2026-02-14	Show We study parametric change-point detection, where the goal is to identify distributional changes in time series, under local differential privacy. In the non-private setting, we derive improved finite-sample accuracy guarantees for a change-point detection algorithm based on the generalized log-likelihood ratio test, via martingale methods. In the private setting, we propose two locally differentially private algorithms based on randomized response and binary mechanisms, and analyze their theoretical performance. We derive bounds on detection accuracy and validate our results through empirical evaluation. Our results characterize the statistical cost of local differential privacy in change-point detection and show how privacy degrades performance relative to a non-private benchmark. As part of this analysis, we establish a structural result for strong data processing inequalities (SDPI), proving that SDPI coefficients for Rényi divergences and their symmetric variants (Jeffreys-Rényi divergences) are achieved by binary input distributions. These results on SDPI coefficients are also of independent interest, with applications to statistical estimation, data compression, and Markov chain mixing.	43 pages, 20 figures
Differentiable Rule Induction from Raw Sequence Inputs	2026-02-14	Show Rule learning-based models are widely used in highly interpretable scenarios due to their transparent structures. Inductive logic programming (ILP), a form of machine learning, induces rules from facts while maintaining interpretability. Differentiable ILP models enhance this process by leveraging neural networks to improve robustness and scalability. However, most differentiable ILP methods rely on symbolic datasets, facing challenges when learning directly from raw data. Specifically, they struggle with explicit label leakage: The inability to map continuous inputs to symbolic variables without explicit supervision of input feature labels. In this work, we address this issue by integrating a self-supervised differentiable clustering model with a novel differentiable ILP model, enabling rule learning from raw data without explicit label leakage. The learned rules effectively describe raw data through its features. We demonstrate that our method intuitively and precisely learns generalized rules from time series and image data.	Accep... Accepted at ICLR 2025
QuaRK: A Quantum Reservoir Kernel for Time Series Learning	2026-02-14	Show Quantum reservoir computing offers a promising route for time series learning by modelling sequential data via rich quantum dynamics while the only training required happens at the level of a lightweight classical readout. However, studies featuring efficient and implementable quantum reservoir architectures along with model learning guarantees remain scarce in the literature. To close this gap, we introduce QuaRK, an end-to-end framework that couples a hardware-realistic quantum reservoir featurizer with a kernel-based readout scheme. Given a sequence of sample points, the reservoir injects the points one after the other to yield a compact feature vector from efficiently measured k-local observables using classical shadow tomography, after which a classical kernel-based readout learns the target mapping with explicit regularization and fast optimization. The resulting pipeline exposes clear computational knobs -- circuit width and depth as well as the measurement budget -- while preserving the flexibility of kernel methods to model nonlinear temporal functionals and being scalable to high-dimensional data. We further provide learning-theoretic generalization guarantees for dependent temporal data, linking design and resource choices to finite-sample performance, thereby offering principled guidance for building reliable temporal learners. Empirical experiments validate QuaRK and illustrate the predicted interpolation and generalization behaviours on synthetic beta-mixing time series tasks.
Federated Learning of Nonlinear Temporal Dynamics with Graph Attention-based Cross-Client Interpretability	2026-02-13	Show Networks of modern industrial systems are increasingly monitored by distributed sensors, where each system comprises multiple subsystems generating high dimensional time series data. These subsystems are often interdependent, making it important to understand how temporal patterns at one subsystem relate to others. This is challenging in decentralized settings where raw measurements cannot be shared and client observations are heterogeneous. In practical deployments each subsystem (client) operates a fixed proprietary model that cannot be modified or retrained, limiting existing approaches. Nonlinear dynamics further make cross client temporal interdependencies difficult to interpret because they are embedded in nonlinear state transition functions. We present a federated framework for learning temporal interdependencies across clients under these constraints. Each client maps high dimensional local observations to low dimensional latent states using a nonlinear state space model. A central server learns a graph structured neural state transition model over the communicated latent states using a Graph Attention Network. For interpretability we relate the Jacobian of the learned server side transition model to attention coefficients, providing the first interpretable characterization of cross client temporal interdependencies in decentralized nonlinear systems. We establish theoretical convergence guarantees to a centralized oracle and validate the framework through synthetic experiments demonstrating convergence, interpretability, scalability and privacy. Additional real world experiments show performance comparable to decentralized baselines.	Manus... Manuscript under review
MemeTrans: A Dataset for Detecting High-Risk Memecoin Launches on Solana	2026-02-13	Show Launchpads have become the dominant mechanism for issuing memecoins on blockchains due to their fully automated, no-code creation process. This new issuance paradigm has led to a surge in high-risk token launches, causing substantial financial losses for unsuspecting buyers. In this paper, we introduce MemeTrans, the first dataset for studying and detecting high-risk memecoin launches on Solana. MemeTrans covers over 40k memecoin launches that successfully migrated to the public Decentralized Exchange (DEX), with over 30 million transactions during the initial sale on launchpad and 180 million transactions after migration. To precisely capture launch patterns, we design 122 features spanning dimensions such as context, trading activity, holding concentration, and time-series dynamics, supplemented with bundle-level data that reveals multiple accounts controlled by the same entity. Finally, we introduce an annotation approach to label the risk level of memecoin launches, which combines statistical indicators with a manipulation-pattern detector. Experiments on the introduced high-risk launch detection task suggest that designed features are informative for capturing high-risk patterns and ML models trained on MemeTrans can effectively reduce financial loss by 56.1%. Our dataset, experimental code, and pipeline are publicly available at: https://github.com/git-disl/MemeTrans.
Detecting Parameter Instabilities in Functional Concurrent Linear Regression	2026-02-13	Show We develop methodology to detect structural breaks in the slope function of a concurrent functional linear regression model for functional time series in $C[0,1]$. Our test is based on a CUSUM process of regressor-weighted OLS residual functions. To accommodate both global and local changes, we propose $L^2$- and sup-norm versions, with the sup-norm particularly sensitive to spike-like changes. Under Hölder regularity and weak dependence conditions, we establish a functional strong invariance principle, derive the asymptotic null distribution, and show that the resulting tests are consistent against a broad class of alternatives with breaks in the slope function. Simulation studies illustrate finite-sample size and power. We apply the method to sports data obtained via body-worn sensors from running athletes, focusing on hip and knee joint-angle trajectories recorded during a fatiguing run. As fatigue accumulates, runners adapt their movement patterns, and sufficiently pronounced adjustments are expected to appear as a change point in the regression relationship. In this manner, we illustrate how the proposed tests support interpretable inference for biomechanical functional time series.
Barron-Wiener-Laguerre models	2026-02-13	Show We propose a probabilistic extension of Wiener-Laguerre models for causal operator learning. Classical Wiener-Laguerre models parameterize stable linear dynamics using orthonormal Laguerre bases and apply a static nonlinear map to the resulting features. While structurally efficient and interpretable, they provide only deterministic point estimates. We reinterpret the nonlinear component through the lens of Barron function approximation, viewing two-layer networks, random Fourier features, and extreme learning machines as discretizations of integral representations over parameter measures. This perspective naturally admits Bayesian inference on the nonlinear map and yields posterior predictive uncertainty. By combining Laguerre-parameterized causal dynamics with probabilistic Barron-type nonlinear approximators, we obtain a structured yet expressive class of causal operators equipped with uncertainty quantification. The resulting framework bridges classical system identification and modern measure-based function approximation, providing a principled approach to time-series modeling and nonlinear systems identification.
Kairos: Toward Adaptive and Parameter-Efficient Time Series Foundation Models	2026-02-13	Show Inherent temporal heterogeneity, such as varying sampling densities and periodic structures, has posed substantial challenges in zero-shot generalization for Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs). Existing TSFMs predominantly rely on massive parameterization to absorb such heterogeneity, as their static tokenization and positional encoding schemes entangle diverse temporal patterns into a fixed representation space, encouraging memorization rather than adaptation. To address this limitation, we propose Kairos, a flexible and parameter-efficient TSFM that decouples temporal heterogeneity from model capacity through a novel tokenization perspective. Kairos introduces a dynamic patching tokenizer and a mixture-of-size encoding that adapt observational granularity to local information density, enabling fine-grained temporal abstraction without increasing model width or depth. In addition, we design a multi-granularity positional embedding based on dynamic rotary encodings, which conditions on instance-level spectral features and temporal structure induced by dynamic patching tokenization, allowing robust modeling of diverse temporal dependencies. Trained on a novel Predictability-Stratified Time-Series (PreSTS) corpus, Kairos achieves superior zero-shot performance with substantially fewer parameters on two mainstream benchmarks, GIFT-Eval and Time-Series-Library. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/Kairos .
EXCODER: EXplainable Classification Of DiscretE time series Representations	2026-02-13	Show Deep learning has significantly improved time series classification, yet the lack of explainability in these models remains a major challenge. While Explainable AI (XAI) techniques aim to make model decisions more transparent, their effectiveness is often hindered by the high dimensionality and noise present in raw time series data. In this work, we investigate whether transforming time series into discrete latent representations-using methods such as Vector Quantized Variational Autoencoders (VQ-VAE) and Discrete Variational Autoencoders (DVAE)-not only preserves but enhances explainability by reducing redundancy and focusing on the most informative patterns. We show that applying XAI methods to these compressed representations leads to concise and structured explanations that maintain faithfulness without sacrificing classification performance. Additionally, we propose Similar Subsequence Accuracy (SSA), a novel metric that quantitatively assesses the alignment between XAI-identified salient subsequences and the label distribution in the training data. SSA provides a systematic way to validate whether the features highlighted by XAI methods are truly representative of the learned classification patterns. Our findings demonstrate that discrete latent representations not only retain the essential characteristics needed for classification but also offer a pathway to more compact, interpretable, and computationally efficient explanations in time series analysis.	Accep... Accepted at PAKDD 2026
LTSM-Bundle: A Toolbox and Benchmark on Large Language Models for Time Series Forecasting	2026-02-13	Show Time Series Forecasting (TSF) has long been a challenge in time series analysis. Inspired by the success of Large Language Models (LLMs), researchers are now developing Large Time Series Models (LTSMs)-universal transformer-based models that use autoregressive prediction-to improve TSF. However, training LTSMs on heterogeneous time series data poses unique challenges, including diverse frequencies, dimensions, and patterns across datasets. Recent endeavors have studied and evaluated various design choices aimed at enhancing LTSM training and generalization capabilities. However, these design choices are typically studied and evaluated in isolation and are not benchmarked collectively. In this work, we introduce LTSM-Bundle, a comprehensive toolbox, and benchmark for training LTSMs, spanning pre-processing techniques, model configurations, and dataset configuration. It modularized and benchmarked LTSMs from multiple dimensions, encompassing prompting strategies, tokenization approaches, training paradigms, base model selection, data quantity, and dataset diversity. Furthermore, we combine the most effective design choices identified in our study. Empirical results demonstrate that this combination achieves superior zero-shot and few-shot performances compared to state-of-the-art LTSMs and traditional TSF methods on benchmark datasets.
Uncertainty in Federated Granger Causality: From Origins to Systemic Consequences	2026-02-13	Show Granger Causality (GC) provides a rigorous framework for learning causal structures from time-series data. Recent federated variants of GC have targeted distributed infrastructure applications (e.g., smart grids) with distributed clients that generate high-dimensional data bound by data-sovereignty constraints. However, Federated GC algorithms only yield deterministic point estimates of causality and neglect uncertainty. This paper establishes the first methodology for rigorously quantifying uncertainty and its propagation within federated GC frameworks. We systematically classify sources of uncertainty, explicitly differentiating aleatoric (data noise) from epistemic (model variability) effects. We derive closed-form recursions that model the evolution of uncertainty through client-server interactions and identify four novel cross-covariance components that couple data uncertainties with model parameter uncertainties across the federated architecture. We also define rigorous convergence conditions for these uncertainty recursions and obtain explicit steady-state variances for both server and client model parameters. Our convergence analysis demonstrates that steady-state variances depend exclusively on client data statistics, thus eliminating dependence on initial epistemic priors and enhancing robustness. Empirical evaluations on synthetic benchmarks and real-world industrial datasets demonstrate that explicitly characterizing uncertainty significantly improves the reliability and interpretability of federated causal inference.	Manus... Manuscript under review
Instruction-based Time Series Editing	2026-02-13	Show In time series editing, we aim to modify some properties of a given time series without altering others. For example, when analyzing a hospital patient's blood pressure, we may add a sudden early drop and observe how it impacts their future while preserving other conditions. Existing diffusion-based editors rely on rigid, predefined attribute vectors as conditions and produce all-or-nothing edits through sampling. This attribute- and sampling-based approach limits flexibility in condition format and lacks customizable control over editing strength. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Instruction-based Time Series Editing, where users specify intended edits using natural language. This allows users to express a wider range of edits in a more accessible format. We then introduce InstructTime, the first instruction-based time series editor. InstructTime takes in time series and instructions, embeds them into a shared multi-modal representation space, then decodes their embeddings to generate edited time series. By learning a structured multi-modal representation space, we can easily interpolate between embeddings to achieve varying degrees of edit. To handle local and global edits together, we propose multi-resolution encoders. In our experiments, we use synthetic and real datasets and find that InstructTime is a state-of-the-art time series editor: InstructTime achieves high-quality edits with controllable strength, can generalize to unseen instructions, and can be easily adapted to unseen conditions through few-shot learning.	(KDD ... (KDD 26) Proceedings of the 32nd ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining V.1
Context-Specific Causal Graph Discovery with Unobserved Contexts: Non-Stationarity, Regimes and Spatio-Temporal Patterns	2026-02-13	Show Real-world problems, for example in climate applications, often require causal reasoning on spatially gridded time series data or data with comparable structure. While the underlying system is often believed to behave similarly at different Points in space and time, those variations that do exist are relevant twofold: They often encode important information in and of themselves. And they may negatively affect the stability and validity of results if not accounted for. We study the information encoded in changes of the causal graph, with stability in mind. Two core challenges arise, related to the complexity of encoding system-states and to statistical convergence properties in the presence of imperfectly recoverable non-stationary structure. We provide a framework realizing principles conceptually suitable to overcome these challenges - an interpretation supported by numerical experiments. Primarily, we modify constraint-based causal discovery approaches on the level of independence testing. This leads to a framework which is additionally highly modular, easily extensible and widely applicable. For example, it allows to leverage existing constraint-based causal discovery methods (demonstrated on PC, PC-stable, FCI, PCMCI, PCMCI+ and LPCMCI), and to systematically divide the problem into simpler subproblems that are easier to analyze and understand and relate more clearly to well-studied problems like change-point-detection, clustering, independence-testing and more. Code is available at https://github.com/martin-rabel/Causal_GLDF.
PriceFM: Foundation Model for Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting	2026-02-13	Show Electricity price forecasting in Europe presents unique challenges due to the continent's increasingly integrated and physically interconnected power market. While recent advances in foundation models have led to substantial improvements in general time series forecasting, most existing approaches do not incorporate prior graph knowledge from the transmission topology, which can limit their ability to exploit meaningful cross-region dependencies in interconnected power systems, motivating a domain-specific foundation model. In this paper, we address this gap by first introducing a comprehensive and up-to-date dataset across 24 European countries (38 regions), spanning from 2022-01-01 to 2026-01-01. Building on this groundwork, we propose PriceFM, a probabilistic foundation model pretrained on this large dataset. Specifically, PriceFM maps each region's price and exogenous features into a comparable latent embedding via a shared Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) projection layer, then injects prior graph knowledge by constructing a sparse graph mask derived from transmission topology. Across a large-scale European benchmark, PriceFM achieves strong performance and demonstrates superior generalization under both zero-shot and full-shot evaluation compared with multiple competitive baselines.	17 pa... 17 pages, 5 figures, 9 tables

Trajectory

Title	Date	Abstract	Comment
Sensor Query Schedule and Sensor Noise Covariances for Accuracy-constrained Trajectory Estimation	2026-02-18	Show Trajectory estimation involves determining the trajectory of a mobile robot by combining prior knowledge about its dynamic model with noisy observations of its state obtained using sensors. The accuracy of such a procedure is dictated by the system model fidelity and the sensor parameters, such as the accuracy of the sensor (as represented by its noise covariance) and the rate at which it can generate observations, referred to as the sensor query schedule. Intuitively, high-rate measurements from accurate sensors lead to accurate trajectory estimation. However, cost and resource constraints limit the sensor accuracy and its measurement rate. Our work's novel contribution is the estimation of sensor schedules and sensor covariances necessary to achieve a specific estimation accuracy. Concretely, we focus on estimating: (i) the rate or schedule with which a sensor of known covariance must generate measurements to achieve specific estimation accuracy, and alternatively, (ii) the sensor covariance necessary to achieve specific estimation accuracy for a given sensor update rate. We formulate the problem of estimating these sensor parameters as semidefinite programs, which can be solved by off-the-shelf solvers. We validate our approach in simulation and real experiments by showing that the sensor schedules and the sensor covariances calculated using our proposed method achieve the desired trajectory estimation accuracy. Our method also identifies scenarios where certain estimation accuracy is unachievable with the given system and sensor characteristics.
Physical Activity Trajectories Preceding Incident Major Depressive Disorder Diagnosis Using Consumer Wearable Devices in the All of Us Research Program: Case-Control Study	2026-02-18	Show Low physical activity is a known risk factor for major depressive disorder (MDD), but changes in activity before a first clinical diagnosis remain unclear, especially using long-term objective measurements. This study characterized trajectories of wearable-measured physical activity during the year preceding incident MDD diagnosis. We conducted a retrospective nested case-control study using linked electronic health record and Fitbit data from the All of Us Research Program. Adults with at least 6 months of valid wearable data in the year before diagnosis were eligible. Incident MDD cases were matched to controls on age, sex, body mass index, and index time (up to four controls per case). Daily step counts and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were aggregated into monthly averages. Linear mixed-effects models compared trajectories from 12 months before diagnosis to diagnosis. Within cases, contrasts identified when activity first significantly deviated from levels 12 months prior. The cohort included 4,104 participants (829 cases and 3,275 controls; 81.7% women; median age 48.4 years). Compared with controls, cases showed consistently lower activity and significant downward trajectories in both step counts and MVPA during the year before diagnosis (P < 0.001). Significant declines appeared about 4 months before diagnosis for step counts and 5 months for MVPA. Exploratory analyses suggested subgroup differences, including steeper declines in men, greater intensity reductions at older ages, and persistently low activity among individuals with obesity. Sustained within-person declines in physical activity emerged months before incident MDD diagnosis. Longitudinal wearable monitoring may provide early signals to support risk stratification and earlier intervention.
IMPACT: Behavioral Intention-aware Multimodal Trajectory Prediction with Adaptive Context Trimming	2026-02-18	Show While most prior research has focused on improving the precision of multimodal trajectory predictions, the explicit modeling of multimodal behavioral intentions (e.g., yielding, overtaking) remains relatively underexplored. This paper proposes a unified framework that jointly predicts both behavioral intentions and trajectories to enhance prediction accuracy, interpretability, and efficiency. Specifically, we employ a shared context encoder for both intention and trajectory predictions, thereby reducing structural redundancy and information loss. Moreover, we address the lack of ground-truth behavioral intention labels in mainstream datasets (Waymo, Argoverse) by auto-labeling these datasets, thus advancing the community's efforts in this direction. We further introduce a vectorized occupancy prediction module that infers the probability of each map polyline being occupied by the target vehicle's future trajectory. By leveraging these intention and occupancy prediction priors, our method conducts dynamic, modality-dependent pruning of irrelevant agents and map polylines in the decoding stage, effectively reducing computational overhead and mitigating noise from non-critical elements. Our approach ranks first among LiDAR-free methods on the Waymo Motion Dataset and achieves first place on the Waymo Interactive Prediction Dataset. Remarkably, even without model ensembling, our single-model framework improves the soft mean average precision (softmAP) by 10 percent compared to the second-best method in the Waymo Interactive Prediction Leaderboard. Furthermore, the proposed framework has been successfully deployed on real vehicles, demonstrating its practical effectiveness in real-world applications.	accep... accepted by IEEE Robotics and Automation Letters
SEISMO: Increasing Sample Efficiency in Molecular Optimization with a Trajectory-Aware LLM Agent	2026-02-18	Show Optimizing the structure of molecules to achieve desired properties is a central bottleneck across the chemical sciences, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry where it underlies the discovery of new drugs. Since molecular property evaluation often relies on costly and rate-limited oracles, such as experimental assays, molecular optimization must be highly sample-efficient. To address this, we introduce SEISMO, an LLM agent that performs strictly online, inference-time molecular optimization, updating after every oracle call without the need for population-based or batched learning. SEISMO conditions each proposal on the full optimization trajectory, combining natural-language task descriptions with scalar scores and, when available, structured explanatory feedback. Across the Practical Molecular Optimization benchmark of 23 tasks, SEISMO achieves a 2-3 times higher area under the optimisation curve than prior methods, often reaching near-maximal task scores within 50 oracle calls. Our additional medicinal-chemistry tasks show that providing explanatory feedback further improves efficiency, demonstrating that leveraging domain knowledge and structured information is key to sample-efficient molecular optimization.	Fabia... Fabian P. Krüger and Andrea Hunklinger contributed equally to this work
Multi-Agent Meta-Advisor for UAV Fleet Trajectory Design in Vehicular Networks	2026-02-18	Show Future vehicular networks require continuous connectivity to serve highly mobile users in urban environments. To mitigate the coverage limitations of fixed terrestrial macro base stations (MBS) under non line-of-sight (NLoS) conditions, fleets of unmanned aerial base stations (UABSs) can be deployed as aerial base stations, dynamically repositioning to track vehicular users and traffic hotspots in coordination with the terrestrial network. This paper addresses cooperative multi-agent trajectory design under different service areas and takeoff configurations, where rapid and safe adaptation across scenarios is essential. We formulate the problem as a multi-task decentralized partially observable Markov decision process and solve it using centralized training and decentralized execution with double dueling deep Q-network (3DQN), enabling online training for real-world deployments. However, efficient exploration remains a bottleneck, with conventional strategies like $ε$-greedy requiring careful tuning. To overcome this, we propose the multi-agent meta-advisor with advisor override (MAMO). This framework guides agent exploration through a meta-policy learned jointly across tasks. It uses a dynamic override mechanism that allows agents to reject misaligned guidance when the advisor fails to generalize to a specific scenario. Simulation results across three realistic urban scenarios and multiple takeoff configurations show that MAMO achieves faster convergence and higher returns than tuned $ε$-greedy baselines, outperforming both an advisor-only ablation and a single generalized policy. Finally, we demonstrate that the learned UABS fleet significantly improves network performance compared to deployments without aerial support.
Spatially-Aware Adaptive Trajectory Optimization with Controller-Guided Feedback for Autonomous Racing	2026-02-17	Show We present a closed-loop framework for autonomous raceline optimization that combines NURBS-based trajectory representation, CMA-ES global trajectory optimization, and controller-guided spatial feedback. Instead of treating tracking errors as transient disturbances, our method exploits them as informative signals of local track characteristics via a Kalman-inspired spatial update. This enables the construction of an adaptive, acceleration-based constraint map that iteratively refines trajectories toward near-optimal performance under spatially varying track and vehicle behavior. In simulation, our approach achieves a 17.38% lap time reduction compared to a controller parametrized with maximum static acceleration. On real hardware, tested with different tire compounds ranging from high to low friction, we obtain a 7.60% lap time improvement without explicitly parametrizing friction. This demonstrates robustness to changing grip conditions in real-world scenarios.	Accep... Accepted at ICRA 2026
FlowDrive: moderated flow matching with data balancing for trajectory planning	2026-02-17	Show Learning-based planners are sensitive to the long-tailed distribution of driving data. Common maneuvers dominate datasets, while dangerous or rare scenarios are sparse. This imbalance can bias models toward the frequent cases and degrade performance on critical scenarios. To tackle this problem, we compare balancing strategies for sampling training data and find reweighting by trajectory pattern an effective approach. We then present FlowDrive, a flow-matching trajectory planner that learns a conditional rectified flow to map noise directly to trajectory distributions with few flow-matching steps. We further introduce moderated, in-the-loop guidance that injects small perturbation between flow steps to systematically increase trajectory diversity while remaining scene-consistent. On nuPlan and the interaction-focused interPlan benchmarks, FlowDrive achieves state-of-the-art results among learning-based planners and approaches methods with rule-based refinements. After adding moderated guidance and light post-processing (FlowDrive*), it achieves overall state-of-the-art performance across nearly all benchmark splits. Our code is available at https://github.com/einsteinguang/flow_drive_planner.
Constraining Streaming Flow Models for Adapting Learned Robot Trajectory Distributions	2026-02-17	Show Robot motion distributions often exhibit multi-modality and require flexible generative models for accurate representation. Streaming Flow Policies (SFPs) have recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for generating robot trajectories by integrating learned velocity fields directly in action space, enabling smooth and reactive control. However, existing formulations lack mechanisms for adapting trajectories post-training to enforce safety and task-specific constraints. We propose Constraint-Aware Streaming Flow (CASF), a framework that augments streaming flow policies with constraint-dependent metrics that reshape the learned velocity field during execution. CASF models each constraint, defined in either the robot's workspace or configuration space, as a differentiable distance function that is converted into a local metric and pulled back into the robot's control space. Far from restricted regions, the resulting metric reduces to the identity; near constraint boundaries, it smoothly attenuates or redirects motion, effectively deforming the underlying flow to maintain safety. This allows trajectories to be adapted in real time, ensuring that robot actions respect joint limits, avoid collisions, and remain within feasible workspaces, while preserving the multi-modal and reactive properties of streaming flow policies. We demonstrate CASF in simulated and real-world manipulation tasks, showing that it produces constraint-satisfying trajectories that remain smooth, feasible, and dynamically consistent, outperforming standard post-hoc projection baselines.	8 pages, 8 figure
SafeFlowMPC: Predictive and Safe Trajectory Planning for Robot Manipulators with Learning-based Policies	2026-02-17	Show The emerging integration of robots into everyday life brings several major challenges. Compared to classical industrial applications, more flexibility is needed in combination with real-time reactivity. Learning-based methods can train powerful policies based on demonstrated trajectories, such that the robot generalizes a task to similar situations. However, these black-box models lack interpretability and rigorous safety guarantees. Optimization-based methods provide these guarantees but lack the required flexibility and generalization capabilities. This work proposes SafeFlowMPC, a combination of flow matching and online optimization to combine the strengths of learning and optimization. This method guarantees safety at all times and is designed to meet the demands of real-time execution by using a suboptimal model-predictive control formulation. SafeFlowMPC achieves strong performance in three real-world experiments on a KUKA 7-DoF manipulator, namely two grasping experiment and a dynamic human-robot object handover experiment. A video of the experiments is available at http://www.acin.tuwien.ac.at/42d6. The code is available at https://github.com/TU-Wien-ACIN-CDS/SafeFlowMPC.	Accep... Accepted at ICRA 2026
Directional Reasoning Trajectory Change (DRTC): Identifying Critical Trace Segments in Reasoning Models	2026-02-17	Show Understanding how language models carry out long-horizon reasoning remains an open challenge. Existing interpretability methods often highlight tokens or spans correlated with an answer, but they rarely reveal where the model makes consequential reasoning turns, which earlier context causally triggers those turns, or whether the highlighted text actually steers the reasoning process. We introduce Directional Reasoning Trajectory Change (DRTC), a process-causal framework for interpreting long-form reasoning from a single on-policy rollout. DRTC detects pivot decision points using uncertainty and distribution-shift signals, then applies receiver-side interventions that preserve the realized rollout without resampling the continuation while blocking information flow from selected earlier chunks only at a pivot. It measures whether each intervention redirects the direction of the model's log-probability trajectory relative to the realized rollout direction, producing a signed per-chunk attribution score. We also compute turning-angle curvature changes on raw logits as a complementary diagnostic and introduce curvature signatures to summarize shared intervention-response geometry. Empirically, directional influence is sharply concentrated across four reasoning models (per-example	DRTC
Synthesizing Trajectory Queries from Examples	2026-02-16	Show Data scientists often need to write programs to process predictions of machine learning models, such as object detections and trajectories in video data. However, writing such queries can be challenging due to the fuzzy nature of real-world data; in particular, they often include real-valued parameters that must be tuned by hand. We propose a novel framework called Quivr that synthesizes trajectory queries matching a given set of examples. To efficiently synthesize parameters, we introduce a novel technique for pruning the parameter space and a novel quantitative semantics that makes this more efficient. We evaluate Quivr on a benchmark of 17 tasks, including several from prior work, and show both that it can synthesize accurate queries for each task and that our optimizations substantially reduce synthesis time.
Loss Knows Best: Detecting Annotation Errors in Videos via Loss Trajectories	2026-02-16	Show High-quality video datasets are foundational for training robust models in tasks like action recognition, phase detection, and event segmentation. However, many real-world video datasets suffer from annotation errors such as mislabeling, where segments are assigned incorrect class labels, and disordering, where the temporal sequence does not follow the correct progression. These errors are particularly harmful in phase-annotated tasks, where temporal consistency is critical. We propose a novel, model-agnostic method for detecting annotation errors by analyzing the Cumulative Sample Loss (CSL)--defined as the average loss a frame incurs when passing through model checkpoints saved across training epochs. This per-frame loss trajectory acts as a dynamic fingerprint of frame-level learnability. Mislabeled or disordered frames tend to show consistently high or irregular loss patterns, as they remain difficult for the model to learn throughout training, while correctly labeled frames typically converge to low loss early. To compute CSL, we train a video segmentation model and store its weights at each epoch. These checkpoints are then used to evaluate the loss of each frame in a test video. Frames with persistently high CSL are flagged as likely candidates for annotation errors, including mislabeling or temporal misalignment. Our method does not require ground truth on annotation errors and is generalizable across datasets. Experiments on EgoPER and Cholec80 demonstrate strong detection performance, effectively identifying subtle inconsistencies such as mislabeling and frame disordering. The proposed approach provides a powerful tool for dataset auditing and improving training reliability in video-based machine learning.	8 pag... 8 pages, 5 figures, 6 tables
ROSA: Roundabout Optimized Speed Advisory with Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction in Multimodal Traffic	2026-02-16	Show We present ROSA -- Roundabout Optimized Speed Advisory -- a system that combines multi-agent trajectory prediction with coordinated speed guidance for multimodal, mixed traffic at roundabouts. Using a Transformer-based model, ROSA jointly predicts the future trajectories of vehicles and Vulnerable Road Users (VRUs) at roundabouts. Trained for single-step prediction and deployed autoregressively, it generates deterministic outputs, enabling actionable speed advisories. Incorporating motion dynamics, the model achieves high accuracy (ADE: 1.29m, FDE: 2.99m at a five-second prediction horizon), surpassing prior work. Adding route intention further improves performance (ADE: 1.10m, FDE: 2.36m), demonstrating the value of connected vehicle data. Based on predicted conflicts with VRUs and circulating vehicles, ROSA provides real-time, proactive speed advisories for approaching and entering the roundabout. Despite prediction uncertainty, ROSA significantly improves vehicle efficiency and safety, with positive effects even on perceived safety from a VRU perspective. The source code of this work is available under: github.com/urbanAIthi/ROSA.	8 pag... 8 pages, 1 figure, 4 tables, 2026 IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC)
BoundPlanner: A convex-set-based approach to bounded manipulator trajectory planning	2026-02-16	Show Online trajectory planning enables robot manipulators to react quickly to changing environments or tasks. Many robot trajectory planners exist for known environments but are often too slow for online computations. Current methods in online trajectory planning do not find suitable trajectories in challenging scenarios that respect the limits of the robot and account for collisions. This work proposes a trajectory planning framework consisting of the novel Cartesian path planner based on convex sets, called BoundPlanner, and the online trajectory planner BoundMPC. BoundPlanner explores and maps the collision-free space using convex sets to compute a reference path with bounds. BoundMPC is extended in this work to handle convex sets for path deviations, which allows the robot to optimally follow the path within the bounds while accounting for the robot's kinematics. Collisions of the robot's kinematic chain are considered by a novel convex-set-based collision avoidance formulation independent on the number of obstacles. Simulations and experiments with a 7-DoF manipulator show the performance of the proposed planner compared to state-of-the-art methods. The source code is available at github.com/TU-Wien-ACIN-CDS/BoundPlanner and videos of the experiments can be found at www.acin.tuwien.ac.at/42d4.	Published at RA-L
A representational framework for learning and encoding structurally enriched trajectories in complex agent environments	2026-02-16	Show The ability of artificial intelligence agents to make optimal decisions and generalise them to different domains and tasks is compromised in complex scenarios. One way to address this issue has focused on learning efficient representations of the world and on how the actions of agents affect them in state-action transitions. Whereas such representations are procedurally efficient, they lack structural richness. To address this problem, we propose to enhance the agent's ontology and extend the traditional conceptualisation of trajectories to provide a more nuanced view of task execution. Structurally Enriched Trajectories (SETs) extend the encoding of sequences of states and their transitions by incorporating hierarchical relations between objects, interactions, and affordances. SETs are built as multi-level graphs, providing a detailed representation of the agent dynamics and a transferable functional abstraction of the task. SETs are integrated into an architecture, Structurally Enriched Trajectory Learning and Encoding (SETLE), that employs a heterogeneous graph-based memory structure of multi-level relational dependencies essential for generalisation. We demonstrate that SETLE can support downstream tasks, enabling agents to recognise task relevant structural patterns across CREATE and MiniGrid environments. Finally, we integrate SETLE with reinforcement learning and show measurable improvements in downstream performance, including breakthrough success rates in complex, sparse-reward tasks.
A Trajectory-Based Safety Audit of Clawdbot (OpenClaw)	2026-02-16	Show Clawdbot is a self-hosted, tool-using personal AI agent with a broad action space spanning local execution and web-mediated workflows, which raises heightened safety and security concerns under ambiguity and adversarial steering. We present a trajectory-centric evaluation of Clawdbot across six risk dimensions. Our test suite samples and lightly adapts scenarios from prior agent-safety benchmarks (including ATBench and LPS-Bench) and supplements them with hand-designed cases tailored to Clawdbot's tool surface. We log complete interaction trajectories (messages, actions, tool-call arguments/outputs) and assess safety using both an automated trajectory judge (AgentDoG-Qwen3-4B) and human review. Across 34 canonical cases, we find a non-uniform safety profile: performance is generally consistent on reliability-focused tasks, while most failures arise under underspecified intent, open-ended goals, or benign-seeming jailbreak prompts, where minor misinterpretations can escalate into higher-impact tool actions. We supplemented the overall results with representative case studies and summarized the commonalities of these cases, analyzing the security vulnerabilities and typical failure modes that Clawdbot is prone to trigger in practice.
AD-Bench: A Real-World, Trajectory-Aware Advertising Analytics Benchmark for LLM Agents	2026-02-15	Show While Large Language Model (LLM) agents have achieved remarkable progress in complex reasoning tasks, evaluating their performance in real-world environments has become a critical problem. Current benchmarks, however, are largely restricted to idealized simulations, failing to address the practical demands of specialized domains like advertising and marketing analytics. In these fields, tasks are inherently more complex, often requiring multi-round interaction with professional marketing tools. To address this gap, we propose AD-Bench, a benchmark designed based on real-world business requirements of advertising and marketing platforms. AD-Bench is constructed from real user marketing analysis requests, with domain experts providing verifiable reference answers and corresponding reference tool-call trajectories. The benchmark categorizes requests into three difficulty levels (L1-L3) to evaluate agents' capabilities under multi-round, multi-tool collaboration. Experiments show that on AD-Bench, Gemini-3-Pro achieves Pass@1 = 68.0% and Pass@3 = 83.0%, but performance drops significantly on L3 to Pass@1 = 49.4% and Pass@3 = 62.1%, with a trajectory coverage of 70.1%, indicating that even state-of-the-art models still exhibit substantial capability gaps in complex advertising and marketing analysis scenarios. AD-Bench provides a realistic benchmark for evaluating and improving advertising marketing agents, the leaderboard and code can be found at https://github.com/Emanual20/adbench-leaderboard.	15 pages, 11 figures
ARCTraj: A Dataset and Benchmark of Human Reasoning Trajectories for Abstract Problem Solving	2026-02-15	Show We present ARCTraj, a dataset and methodological framework for modeling human reasoning through complex visual tasks in the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC). While ARC has inspired extensive research on abstract reasoning, most existing approaches rely on static input-output supervision, which limits insight into how reasoning unfolds over time. ARCTraj addresses this gap by recording temporally ordered, object-level actions that capture how humans iteratively transform inputs into outputs, revealing intermediate reasoning steps that conventional datasets overlook. Collected via the O2ARC web interface, it contains around 10,000 trajectories annotated with task identifiers, timestamps, and success labels across 400 training tasks from the ARC-AGI-1 benchmark. It further defines a unified reasoning pipeline encompassing data collection, action abstraction, Markov decision process (MDP) formulation, and downstream learning, enabling integration with reinforcement learning, generative modeling, and sequence modeling methods such as PPO, World Models, GFlowNets, Diffusion agents, and Decision Transformers. Analyses of spatial selection, color attribution, and strategic convergence highlight the structure and diversity of human reasoning. Together, these contributions position ARCTraj as a structured and interpretable foundation for studying human-like reasoning, advancing explainability, alignment, and generalizable intelligence.	KDD 2... KDD 2026 (Datasets and Benchmarks) accepted
A Generalizable Physics-guided Causal Model for Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving	2026-02-15	Show Trajectory prediction for traffic agents is critical for safe autonomous driving. However, achieving effective zero-shot generalization in previously unseen domains remains a significant challenge. Motivated by the consistent nature of kinematics across diverse domains, we aim to incorporate domain-invariant knowledge to enhance zero-shot trajectory prediction capabilities. The key challenges include: 1) effectively extracting domain-invariant scene representations, and 2) integrating invariant features with kinematic models to enable generalized predictions. To address these challenges, we propose a novel generalizable Physics-guided Causal Model (PCM), which comprises two core components: a Disentangled Scene Encoder, which adopts intervention-based disentanglement to extract domain-invariant features from scenes, and a CausalODE Decoder, which employs a causal attention mechanism to effectively integrate kinematic models with meaningful contextual information. Extensive experiments on real-world autonomous driving datasets demonstrate our method's superior zero-shot generalization performance in unseen cities, significantly outperforming competitive baselines. The source code is released at https://github.com/ZY-Zong/Physics-guided-Causal-Model.	8 pag... 8 pages, 4 figures, Accepted by IEEE ICRA 2026
BEVTraj: Map-Free End-to-End Trajectory Prediction in Bird's-Eye View with Deformable Attention and Sparse Goal Proposals	2026-02-14	Show In autonomous driving, trajectory prediction is essential for safe and efficient navigation. While recent methods often rely on high-definition (HD) maps to provide structured environmental priors, such maps are costly to maintain, geographically limited, and unreliable in dynamic or unmapped scenarios. Directly leveraging raw sensor data in Bird's-Eye View (BEV) space offers greater flexibility, but BEV features are dense and unstructured, making agent-centric spatial reasoning challenging and computationally inefficient. To address this, we propose Bird's-Eye View Trajectory Prediction (BEVTraj), a map-free framework that employs deformable attention to adaptively aggregate task-relevant context from sparse locations in dense BEV features. We further introduce a Sparse Goal Candidate Proposal (SGCP) module that predicts a small set of realistic goals, enabling fully end-to-end multimodal forecasting without heuristic post-processing. Extensive experiments show that BEVTraj achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art HD map-based methods while providing greater robustness and flexibility without relying on pre-built maps. The source code is available at https://github.com/Kongminsang/bevtraj.	Submi... Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems (under review)
Inferring Turn-Rate-Limited Engagement Zones with Sacrificial Agents for Safe Trajectory Planning	2026-02-13	Show This paper presents a learning-based framework for estimating pursuer parameters in turn-rate-limited pursuit-evasion scenarios using sacrificial agents. Each sacrificial agent follows a straight-line trajectory toward an adversary and reports whether it was intercepted or survived. These binary outcomes are related to the pursuer's parameters through a geometric reachable-region (RR) model. Two formulations are introduced: a boundary-interception case, where capture occurs at the RR boundary, and an interior-interception case, which allows capture anywhere within it. The pursuer's parameters are inferred using a gradient-based multi-start optimization with custom loss functions tailored to each case. Two trajectory-selection strategies are proposed for the sacrificial agents: a geometric heuristic that maximizes the spread of expected interception points, and a Bayesian experimental-design method that maximizes the D-score of the expected Gauss-Newton information matrix, thereby selecting trajectories that yield maximal information gain. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate accurate parameter recovery with five to twelve sacrificial agents. The learned engagement models are then used to generate safe, time-optimal paths for high-value agents that avoid all feasible pursuer engagement regions.	Submi... Submitted to the Journal of Aerospace Information Systems
Bus-Conditioned Zero-Shot Trajectory Generation via Task Arithmetic	2026-02-13	Show Mobility trajectory data provide essential support for smart city applications. However, such data are often difficult to obtain. Meanwhile, most existing trajectory generation methods implicitly assume that at least a subset of real mobility data from target city is available, which limits their applicability in data-inaccessible scenarios. In this work, we propose a new problem setting, called bus-conditioned zero-shot trajectory generation, where no mobility trajectories from a target city are accessible. The generation process relies solely on source city mobility data and publicly available bus timetables from both cities. Under this setting, we propose MobTA, the first approach to introduce task arithmetic into trajectory generation. MobTA models the parameter shift from bus-timetable-based trajectory generation to mobility trajectory generation in source city, and applies this shift to target city through arithmetic operations on task vectors. This enables trajectory generation that reflects target-city mobility patterns without requiring any real mobility data from it. Furthermore, we theoretically analyze MobTA's stability across base and instruction-tuned LLMs. Extensive experiments show that MobTA significantly outperforms existing methods, and achieves performance close to models finetuned using target city mobility trajectories.
MASAR: Motion-Appearance Synergy Refinement for Joint Detection and Trajectory Forecasting	2026-02-13	Show Classical autonomous driving systems connect perception and prediction modules via hand-crafted bounding-box interfaces, limiting information flow and propagating errors to downstream tasks. Recent research aims to develop end-to-end models that jointly address perception and prediction; however, they often fail to fully exploit the synergy between appearance and motion cues, relying mainly on short-term visual features. We follow the idea of "looking backward to look forward", and propose MASAR, a novel fully differentiable framework for joint 3D detection and trajectory forecasting compatible with any transformer-based 3D detector. MASAR employs an object-centric spatio-temporal mechanism that jointly encodes appearance and motion features. By predicting past trajectories and refining them using guidance from appearance cues, MASAR captures long-term temporal dependencies that enhance future trajectory forecasting. Experiments conducted on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate MASAR's effectiveness, showing improvements of over 20% in minADE and minFDE while maintaining robust detection performance. Code and models are available at https://github.com/aminmed/MASAR.	Accep... Accepted to the 2026 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA 2026)
X-VORTEX: Spatio-Temporal Contrastive Learning for Wake Vortex Trajectory Forecasting	2026-02-13	Show Wake vortices are strong, coherent air turbulences created by aircraft, and they pose a major safety and capacity challenge for air traffic management. Tracking how vortices move, weaken, and dissipate over time from LiDAR measurements is still difficult because scans are sparse, vortex signatures fade as the flow breaks down under atmospheric turbulence and instabilities, and point-wise annotation is prohibitively expensive. Existing approaches largely treat each scan as an independent, fully supervised segmentation problem, which overlooks temporal structure and does not scale to the vast unlabeled archives collected in practice. We present X-VORTEX, a spatio-temporal contrastive learning framework grounded in Augmentation Overlap Theory that learns physics-aware representations from unlabeled LiDAR point cloud sequences. X-VORTEX addresses two core challenges: sensor sparsity and time-varying vortex dynamics. It constructs paired inputs from the same underlying flight event by combining a weakly perturbed sequence with a strongly augmented counterpart produced via temporal subsampling and spatial masking, encouraging the model to align representations across missing frames and partial observations. Architecturally, a time-distributed geometric encoder extracts per-scan features and a sequential aggregator models the evolving vortex state across variable-length sequences. We evaluate on a real-world dataset of over one million LiDAR scans. X-VORTEX achieves superior vortex center localization while using only 1% of the labeled data required by supervised baselines, and the learned representations support accurate trajectory forecasting.
WebClipper: Efficient Evolution of Web Agents with Graph-based Trajectory Pruning	2026-02-13	Show Deep Research systems based on web agents have shown strong potential in solving complex information-seeking tasks, yet their search efficiency remains underexplored. We observe that many state-of-the-art open-source web agents rely on long tool-call trajectories with cyclic reasoning loops and exploration of unproductive branches. To address this, we propose WebClipper, a framework that compresses web agent trajectories via graph-based pruning. Concretely, we model the agent's search process as a state graph and cast trajectory optimization as a minimum-necessary Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) mining problem, yielding pruned trajectories that preserve essential reasoning while eliminating redundant steps. Continued training on these refined trajectories enables the agent to evolve toward more efficient search patterns and reduces tool-call rounds by about 20% while improving accuracy. Furthermore, we introduce a new metric called F-AE Score to measure the model's overall performance in balancing accuracy and efficiency. Experiments demonstrate that WebClipper compresses tool-call rounds under excellent performance, providing practical insight into balancing effectiveness and efficiency in web agent design.	Work in Progress
T3D: Few-Step Diffusion Language Models via Trajectory Self-Distillation with Direct Discriminative Optimization	2026-02-13	Show Diffusion large language models (DLLMs) have the potential to enable fast text generation by decoding multiple tokens in parallel. However, in practice, their inference efficiency is constrained by the need for many refinement steps, while aggressively reducing the number of steps leads to a substantial degradation in generation quality. To alleviate this, we propose a trajectory self-distillation framework that improves few-step decoding by distilling the model's own generative trajectories. We incorporate Direct Discriminative Optimization (DDO), a reverse-KL objective that promotes mode-seeking distillation and encourages the student to concentrate on high-probability teacher modes. Across benchmarks, our approach consistently outperforms strong few-step baselines and standard training under tight step budgets. Although full-step decoding remains superior, we substantially narrow the gap, establishing a strong foundation towards practical few-step DLLMs. The source code is available at https://github.com/Tyrion58/T3D.
Which Reasoning Trajectories Teach Students to Reason Better? A Simple Metric of Informative Alignment	2026-02-12	Show Long chain-of-thought (CoT) trajectories provide rich supervision signals for distilling reasoning from teacher to student LLMs. However, both prior work and our experiments show that trajectories from stronger teachers do not necessarily yield better students, highlighting the importance of data-student suitability in distillation. Existing methods assess suitability primarily through student likelihood, favoring trajectories that align closely with the student model's current behavior but overlooking more informative ones. Addressing this, we propose Rank-Surprisal Ratio (RSR), a simple metric that captures both alignment and informativeness to assess the suitability of a reasoning trajectory. RSR is motivated by the observation that effective trajectories typically balance learning signal strength and behavioral alignment by combining low absolute probability with relatively high-ranked tokens under the student model. Concretely, RSR is defined as the ratio of a trajectory's average token-wise rank to its average negative log-likelihood, and is straightforward to compute and interpret. Across five student models and reasoning trajectories from 11 diverse teachers, RSR strongly correlates with post-training reasoning performance (average Spearman 0.86), consistently outperforming existing metrics. We further demonstrate its practical utility in both trajectory selection and teacher selection.	29 pa... 29 pages. Project page: https://github.com/UmeanNever/RankSurprisalRatio
An Autonomous, End-to-End, Convex-Based Framework for Close-Range Rendezvous Trajectory Design and Guidance with Hardware Testbed Validation	2026-02-12	Show Autonomous satellite servicing missions must execute close-range rendezvous under stringent safety and operational constraints while remaining computationally tractable for onboard use and robust to uncertainty in sensing, actuation, and dynamics. This paper presents CORTEX (Convex Optimization for Rendezvous Trajectory Execution), an autonomous, perception-enabled, real-time trajectory design and guidance framework for close-range rendezvous. CORTEX integrates a deep-learning perception pipeline with convex-optimisation-based trajectory design and guidance, including reference regeneration and abort-to-safe-orbit logic to recover from large deviations caused by sensor faults and engine failures. CORTEX is validated in high-fidelity software simulation and hardware-in-the-loop experiments. The software pipeline (Basilisk) models high-fidelity relative dynamics, realistic thruster execution, perception, and attitude control. Hardware testing uses (i) an optical navigation testbed to assess perception-to-estimation performance and (ii) a planar air-bearing testbed to evaluate the end-to-end guidance loop under representative actuation and subsystem effects. A Monte-Carlo campaign in simulation includes initial-state uncertainty, thrust-magnitude errors, and missed-thrust events; under the strongest case investigated, CORTEX achieves terminal docking errors of $36.85 \pm 44.46$ mm in relative position and $1.25 \pm 2.26$ mm/s in relative velocity. On the planar air-bearing testbed, 18 cases are executed (10 nominal; 8 off-nominal requiring recomputation and/or abort due to simulated engine failure and sensor malfunctions), yielding terminal errors of $8.09 \pm 5.29$ mm in position and $2.23 \pm 1.72$ mm/s in velocity.
PathCRF: Ball-Free Soccer Event Detection via Possession Path Inference from Player Trajectories	2026-02-12	Show Despite recent advances in AI, event data collection in soccer still relies heavily on labor-intensive manual annotation. Although prior work has explored automatic event detection using player and ball trajectories, ball tracking also remains difficult to scale due to high infrastructural and operational costs. As a result, comprehensive data collection in soccer is largely confined to top-tier competitions, limiting the broader adoption of data-driven analysis in this domain. To address this challenge, this paper proposes PathCRF, a framework for detecting on-ball soccer events using only player tracking data. We model player trajectories as a fully connected dynamic graph and formulate event detection as the problem of selecting exactly one edge corresponding to the current possession state at each time step. To ensure logical consistency of the resulting edge sequence, we employ a Conditional Random Field (CRF) that forbids impossible transitions between consecutive edges. Both emission and transition scores dynamically computed from edge embeddings produced by a Set Attention-based backbone architecture. During inference, the most probable edge sequence is obtained via Viterbi decoding, and events such as ball controls or passes are detected whenever the selected edge changes between adjacent time steps. Experiments show that PathCRF produces accurate, logically consistent possession paths, enabling reliable downstream analyses while substantially reducing the need for manual event annotation. The source code is available at https://github.com/hyunsungkim-ds/pathcrf.git.
Data-Driven Trajectory Imputation for Vessel Mobility Analysis	2026-02-12	Show Modeling vessel activity at sea is critical for a wide range of applications, including route planning, transportation logistics, maritime safety, and environmental monitoring. Over the past two decades, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) has enabled real-time monitoring of hundreds of thousands of vessels, generating huge amounts of data daily. One major challenge in using AIS data is the presence of large gaps in vessel trajectories, often caused by coverage limitations or intentional transmission interruptions. These gaps can significantly degrade data quality, resulting in inaccurate or incomplete analysis. State-of-the-art imputation approaches have mainly been devised to tackle gaps in vehicle trajectories, even when the underlying road network is not considered. But the motion patterns of sailing vessels differ substantially, e.g., smooth turns, maneuvering near ports, or navigating in adverse weather conditions. In this application paper, we propose HABIT, a lightweight, configurable H3 Aggregation-Based Imputation framework for vessel Trajectories. This data-driven framework provides a valuable means to impute missing trajectory segments by extracting, analyzing, and indexing motion patterns from historical AIS data. Our empirical study over AIS data across various timeframes, densities, and vessel types reveals that HABIT produces maritime trajectory imputations performing comparably to baseline methods in terms of accuracy, while performing better in terms of latency while accounting for vessel characteristics and their motion patterns.	Inter... International Conference on Extending Database Technology (EDBT 2026)
TSR: Trajectory-Search Rollouts for Multi-Turn RL of LLM Agents	2026-02-12	Show Advances in large language models (LLMs) are driving a shift toward using reinforcement learning (RL) to train agents from iterative, multi-turn interactions across tasks. However, multi-turn RL remains challenging as rewards are often sparse or delayed, and environments can be stochastic. In this regime, naive trajectory sampling can hinder exploitation and induce mode collapse. We propose TSR (Trajectory-Search Rollouts), a training-time approach that repurposes test-time scaling ideas for improved per-turn rollout generation. TSR performs lightweight tree-style search to construct high-quality trajectories by selecting high-scoring actions at each turn using task-specific feedback. This improves rollout quality and stabilizes learning while leaving the underlying optimization objective unchanged, making TSR optimizer-agnostic. We instantiate TSR with best-of-N, beam, and shallow lookahead search, and pair it with PPO and GRPO, achieving up to 15% performance gains and more stable learning on Sokoban, FrozenLake, and WebShop tasks at a one-time increase in training compute. By moving search from inference time to the rollout stage of training, TSR provides a simple and general mechanism for stronger multi-turn agent learning, complementary to existing frameworks and rejection-sampling-style selection methods.
Prioritize the Process, Not Just the Outcome: Rewarding Latent Thought Trajectories Improves Reasoning in Looped Language Models	2026-02-12	Show Looped Language Models (LoopLMs) perform multi-step latent reasoning prior to token generation and outperform conventional LLMs on reasoning benchmarks at smaller parameter budgets. However, attempts to further improve LoopLM reasoning with reinforcement learning have failed - standard objectives such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) only assign credit to the final latent state, creating a fundamental mismatch with the model's internal computation. To resolve this, we introduce RLTT (Reward Latent Thought Trajectories), a reinforcement learning framework which distributes reward across the full latent reasoning trajectory. RLTT provides dense, trajectory-level credit assignment without relying on external verifiers and can directly replace GRPO with negligible overhead. Across extensive experiments with Ouro-2.6B-Thinking under identical training and inference conditions, RLTT yields substantial improvements over GRPO on challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks, improving accuracy by +14.4% on MATH-500, +16.6% on AIME24, and +10.0% on BeyondAIME. Despite being trained exclusively on mathematics, RLTT also transfers effectively to non-mathematical reasoning benchmarks, demonstrating the effectiveness of trajectory-level credit assignment for reinforcement learning in LoopLMs.
Dexterous Manipulation Policies from RGB Human Videos via 3D Hand-Object Trajectory Reconstruction	2026-02-11	Show Multi-finger robotic hand manipulation and grasping are challenging due to the high-dimensional action space and the difficulty of acquiring large-scale training data. Existing approaches largely rely on human teleoperation with wearable devices or specialized sensing equipment to capture hand-object interactions, which limits scalability. In this work, we propose VIDEOMANIP, a device-free framework that learns dexterous manipulation directly from RGB human videos. Leveraging recent advances in computer vision, VIDEOMANIP reconstructs explicit 3D robot-object trajectories from monocular videos by estimating human hand poses, object meshes, and retargets the reconstructed human motions to robotic hands for manipulation learning. To make the reconstructed robot data suitable for dexterous manipulation training, we introduce hand-object contact optimization with interaction-centric grasp modeling, as well as a demonstration synthesis strategy that generates diverse training trajectories from a single video, enabling generalizable policy learning without additional robot demonstrations. In simulation, the learned grasping model achieves a 70.25% success rate across 20 diverse objects using the Inspire Hand. In the real world, manipulation policies trained from RGB videos achieve an average 62.86% success rate across seven tasks using the LEAP Hand, outperforming retargeting-based methods by 15.87%. Project videos are available at videomanip.github.io.
TRACER: Trajectory Risk Aggregation for Critical Episodes in Agentic Reasoning	2026-02-11	Show Estimating uncertainty for AI agents in real-world multi-turn tool-using interaction with humans is difficult because failures are often triggered by sparse critical episodes (e.g., looping, incoherent tool use, or user-agent miscoordination) even when local generation appears confident. Existing uncertainty proxies focus on single-shot text generation and therefore miss these trajectory-level breakdown signals. We introduce TRACER, a trajectory-level uncertainty metric for dual-control Tool-Agent-User interaction. TRACER combines content-aware surprisal with situational-awareness signals, semantic and lexical repetition, and tool-grounded coherence gaps, and aggregates them using a tail-focused risk functional with a MAX-composite step risk to surface decisive anomalies. We evaluate TRACER on $τ^2$-bench by predicting task failure and selective task execution. To this end, TRACER improves AUROC by up to 37.1% and AUARC by up to 55% over baselines, enabling earlier and more accurate detection of uncertainty in complex conversational tool-use settings. Our code and benchmark are available at https://github.com/sinatayebati/agent-tracer.
Latent Forcing: Reordering the Diffusion Trajectory for Pixel-Space Image Generation	2026-02-11	Show Latent diffusion models excel at generating high-quality images but lose the benefits of end-to-end modeling. They discard information during image encoding, require a separately trained decoder, and model an auxiliary distribution to the raw data. In this paper, we propose Latent Forcing, a simple modification to existing architectures that achieves the efficiency of latent diffusion while operating on raw natural images. Our approach orders the denoising trajectory by jointly processing latents and pixels with separately tuned noise schedules. This allows the latents to act as a scratchpad for intermediate computation before high-frequency pixel features are generated. We find that the order of conditioning signals is critical, and we analyze this to explain differences between REPA distillation in the tokenizer and the diffusion model, conditional versus unconditional generation, and how tokenizer reconstruction quality relates to diffusability. Applied to ImageNet, Latent Forcing achieves a new state-of-the-art for diffusion transformer-based pixel generation at our compute scale.	8 pages, 6 figures
Multi-UAV Trajectory Optimization for Bearing-Only Localization in GPS Denied Environments	2026-02-11	Show Accurate localization of maritime targets by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) remains challenging in GPS-denied environments. UAVs equipped with gimballed electro-optical sensors are typically used to localize targets, however, reliance on these sensors increases mechanical complexity, cost, and susceptibility to single-point failures, limiting scalability and robustness in multi-UAV operations. This work presents a new trajectory optimization framework that enables cooperative target localization using UAVs with fixed, non-gimballed cameras operating in coordination with a surface vessel. This estimation-aware optimization generates dynamically feasible trajectories that explicitly account for mission constraints, platform dynamics, and out-of-frame events. Estimation-aware trajectories outperform heuristic paths by reducing localization error by more than a factor of two, motivating their use in cooperative operations. Results further demonstrate that coordinated UAVs with fixed, non-gimballed cameras achieve localization accuracy that meets or exceeds that of single gimballed systems, while substantially lowering system complexity and cost, enabling scalability, and enhancing mission resilience.	38 pa... 38 pages, 7 figure, and 6 tables
OSIL: Learning Offline Safe Imitation Policies with Safety Inferred from Non-preferred Trajectories	2026-02-11	Show This work addresses the problem of offline safe imitation learning (IL), where the goal is to learn safe and reward-maximizing policies from demonstrations that do not have per-timestep safety cost or reward information. In many real-world domains, online learning in the environment can be risky, and specifying accurate safety costs can be difficult. However, it is often feasible to collect trajectories that reflect undesirable or unsafe behavior, implicitly conveying what the agent should avoid. We refer to these as non-preferred trajectories. We propose a novel offline safe IL algorithm, OSIL, that infers safety from non-preferred demonstrations. We formulate safe policy learning as a Constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP). Instead of relying on explicit safety cost and reward annotations, OSIL reformulates the CMDP problem by deriving a lower bound on reward maximizing objective and learning a cost model that estimates the likelihood of non-preferred behavior. Our approach allows agents to learn safe and reward-maximizing behavior entirely from offline demonstrations. We empirically demonstrate that our approach can learn safer policies that satisfy cost constraints without degrading the reward performance, thus outperforming several baselines.	21 pa... 21 pages, Accepted at AAMAS 2026
DD-MDN: Human Trajectory Forecasting with Diffusion-Based Dual Mixture Density Networks and Uncertainty Self-Calibration	2026-02-11	Show Human Trajectory Forecasting (HTF) predicts future human movements from past trajectories and environmental context, with applications in Autonomous Driving, Smart Surveillance, and Human-Robot Interaction. While prior work has focused on accuracy, social interaction modeling, and diversity, little attention has been paid to uncertainty modeling, calibration, and forecasts from short observation periods, which are crucial for downstream tasks such as path planning and collision avoidance. We propose DD-MDN, an end-to-end probabilistic HTF model that combines high positional accuracy, calibrated uncertainty, and robustness to short observations. Using a few-shot denoising diffusion backbone and a dual mixture density network, our method learns self-calibrated residence areas and probability-ranked anchor paths, from which diverse trajectory hypotheses are derived, without predefined anchors or endpoints. Experiments on the ETH/UCY, SDD, inD, and IMPTC datasets demonstrate state-of-the-art accuracy, robustness at short observation intervals, and reliable uncertainty modeling. The code is available at: https://github.com/kav-institute/ddmdn.
Self-Augmented Robot Trajectory: Efficient Imitation Learning via Safe Self-augmentation with Demonstrator-annotated Precision	2026-02-11	Show Imitation learning is a promising paradigm for training robot agents; however, standard approaches typically require substantial data acquisition -- via numerous demonstrations or random exploration -- to ensure reliable performance. Although exploration reduces human effort, it lacks safety guarantees and often results in frequent collisions -- particularly in clearance-limited tasks (e.g., peg-in-hole) -- thereby, necessitating manual environmental resets and imposing additional human burden. This study proposes Self-Augmented Robot Trajectory (SART), a framework that enables policy learning from a single human demonstration, while safely expanding the dataset through autonomous augmentation. SART consists of two stages: (1) human teaching only once, where a single demonstration is provided and precision boundaries -- represented as spheres around key waypoints -- are annotated, followed by one environment reset; (2) robot self-augmentation, where the robot generates diverse, collision-free trajectories within these boundaries and reconnects to the original demonstration. This design improves the data collection efficiency by minimizing human effort while ensuring safety. Extensive evaluations in simulation and real-world manipulation tasks show that SART achieves substantially higher success rates than policies trained solely on human-collected demonstrations. Video results available at https://sites.google.com/view/sart-il .	21 pa... 21 pages, 10 figures, Advanced Robotics accepted 2026.02.03
Learning Structure-Semantic Evolution Trajectories for Graph Domain Adaptation	2026-02-11	Show Graph Domain Adaptation (GDA) aims to bridge distribution shifts between domains by transferring knowledge from well-labeled source graphs to given unlabeled target graphs. One promising recent approach addresses graph transfer by discretizing the adaptation process, typically through the construction of intermediate graphs or stepwise alignment procedures. However, such discrete strategies often fail in real-world scenarios, where graph structures evolve continuously and nonlinearly, making it difficult for fixed-step alignment to approximate the actual transformation process. To address these limitations, we propose \textbf{DiffGDA}, a \textbf{Diff}usion-based \textbf{GDA} method that models the domain adaptation process as a continuous-time generative process. We formulate the evolution from source to target graphs using stochastic differential equations (SDEs), enabling the joint modeling of structural and semantic transitions. To guide this evolution, a domain-aware network is introduced to steer the generative process toward the target domain, encouraging the diffusion trajectory to follow an optimal adaptation path. We theoretically show that the diffusion process converges to the optimal solution bridging the source and target domains in the latent space. Extensive experiments on 14 graph transfer tasks across 8 real-world datasets demonstrate DiffGDA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.	accep... accepted by ICLR 2026, 21 pages
Driving Reaction Trajectories via Latent Flow Matching	2026-02-11	Show Recent advances in reaction prediction have achieved near-saturated accuracy on standard benchmarks (e.g., USPTO), yet most state-of-the-art models formulate the task as a one-shot mapping from reactants to products, offering limited insight into the underlying reaction process. Procedural alternatives introduce stepwise generation but often rely on mechanism-specific supervision, discrete symbolic edits, and computationally expensive inference. In this work, we propose LatentRxnFlow, a new reaction prediction paradigm that models reactions as continuous latent trajectories anchored at the thermodynamic product state. Built on Conditional Flow Matching, our approach learns time-dependent latent dynamics directly from standard reactant-product pairs, without requiring mechanistic annotations or curated intermediate labels. While LatentRxnFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance on USPTO benchmarks, more importantly, the continuous formulation exposes the full generative trajectory, enabling trajectory-level diagnostics that are difficult to realize with discrete or one-shot models. We show that latent trajectory analysis allows us to localize and characterize failure modes and to mitigate certain errors via gated inference. Furthermore, geometric properties of the learned trajectories provide an intrinsic signal of epistemic uncertainty, helping prioritize reliably predictable reaction outcomes and flag ambiguous cases for additional validation. Overall, LatentRxnFlow combines strong predictive accuracy with improved transparency, diagnosability, and uncertainty awareness, moving reaction prediction toward more trustworthy deployment in high-throughput discovery workflows.
TABES: Trajectory-Aware Backward-on-Entropy Steering for Masked Diffusion Models	2026-02-11	Show Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) have emerged as a promising non-autoregressive paradigm for generative tasks, offering parallel decoding and bidirectional context utilization. However, current sampling methods rely on simple confidence-based heuristics that ignore the long-term impact of local decisions, leading to trajectory lock-in where early hallucinations cascade into global incoherence. While search-based methods mitigate this, they incur prohibitive computational costs ($O(K)$ forward passes per step). In this work, we propose Backward-on-Entropy (BoE) Steering, a gradient-guided inference framework that approximates infinite-horizon lookahead via a single backward pass. We formally derive the Token Influence Score (TIS) from a first-order expansion of the trajectory cost functional, proving that the gradient of future entropy with respect to input embeddings serves as an optimal control signal for minimizing uncertainty. To ensure scalability, we introduce \texttt{ActiveQueryAttention}, a sparse adjoint primitive that exploits the structure of the masking objective to reduce backward pass complexity. BoE achieves a superior Pareto frontier for inference-time scaling compared to existing unmasking methods, demonstrating that gradient-guided steering offers a mathematically principled and efficient path to robust non-autoregressive generation. We will release the code.
Solving Geodesic Equations with Composite Bernstein Polynomials for Trajectory Planning	2026-02-10	Show This work presents a trajectory planning method based on composite Bernstein polynomials for autonomous systems navigating complex environments. The method is implemented in a symbolic optimization framework that enables continuous paths and precise control over trajectory shape. Trajectories are planned over a cost surface that encodes obstacles as continuous fields rather than discrete boundaries. Regions near obstacles are assigned higher costs, naturally encouraging the trajectory to maintain a safe distance while still allowing efficient routing through constrained spaces. The use of composite Bernstein polynomials preserves continuity while enabling fine control over local curvature to satisfy geodesic constraints. The symbolic representation supports exact derivatives, improving optimization efficiency. The method applies to both two- and three-dimensional environments and is suitable for ground, aerial, underwater, and space systems. In spacecraft trajectory planning, for example, it enables the generation of continuous, dynamically feasible trajectories with high numerical efficiency, making it well suited for orbital maneuvers, rendezvous and proximity operations, cluttered gravitational environments, and planetary exploration missions with limited onboard computational resources. Demonstrations show that the approach efficiently generates smooth, collision-free paths in scenarios with multiple obstacles, maintaining clearance without extensive sampling or post-processing. The optimization incorporates three constraint types: (1) a Gaussian surface inequality enforcing minimum obstacle clearance; (2) geodesic equations guiding the path along locally efficient directions on the cost surface; and (3) boundary constraints enforcing fixed start and end conditions. The method can serve as a standalone planner or as an initializer for more complex motion planning problems.	Accep... Accepted for the 2026 IEEE Aerospace Conference
Optimal Control of Microswimmers for Trajectory Tracking Using Bayesian Optimization	2026-02-10	Show Trajectory tracking for microswimmers remains a key challenge in microrobotics, where low-Reynolds-number dynamics make control design particularly complex. In this work, we formulate the trajectory tracking problem as an optimal control problem and solve it using a combination of B-spline parametrization with Bayesian optimization, allowing the treatment of high computational costs without requiring complex gradient computations. Applied to a flagellated magnetic swimmer, the proposed method reproduces a variety of target trajectories, including biologically inspired paths observed in experimental studies. We further evaluate the approach on a three-sphere swimmer model, demonstrating that it can adapt to and partially compensate for wall-induced hydrodynamic effects. The proposed optimization strategy can be applied consistently across models of different fidelity, from low-dimensional ODE-based models to high-fidelity PDE-based simulations, showing its robustness and generality. These results highlight the potential of Bayesian optimization as a versatile tool for optimal control strategies in microscale locomotion under complex fluid-structure interactions.	16 pages, 16 figures
Look-Ahead and Look-Back Flows: Training-Free Image Generation with Trajectory Smoothing	2026-02-10	Show Recent advances have reformulated diffusion models as deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs) through the framework of flow matching, providing a unified formulation for the noise-to-data generative process. Various training-free flow matching approaches have been developed to improve image generation through flow velocity field adjustment, eliminating the need for costly retraining. However, Modifying the velocity field $v$ introduces errors that propagate through the full generation path, whereas adjustments to the latent trajectory $z$ are naturally corrected by the pretrained velocity network, reducing error accumulation. In this paper, we propose two complementary training-free latent-trajectory adjustment approaches based on future and past velocity $v$ and latent trajectory $z$ information that refine the generative path directly in latent space. We propose two training-free trajectory smoothing schemes: \emph{Look-Ahead}, which averages the current and next-step latents using a curvature-gated weight, and \emph{Look-Back}, which smoothes latents using an exponential moving average with decay. We demonstrate through extensive experiments and comprehensive evaluation metrics that the proposed training-free trajectory smoothing models substantially outperform various state-of-the-art models across multiple datasets including COCO17, CUB-200, and Flickr30K.
Massive-STEPS: Massive Semantic Trajectories for Understanding POI Check-ins -- Dataset and Benchmarks	2026-02-09	Show Understanding human mobility through Point-of-Interest (POI) trajectory modeling is increasingly important for applications such as urban planning, personalized services, and generative agent simulation. However, progress in this field is hindered by two key challenges: the over-reliance on older datasets from 2012-2013 and the lack of reproducible, city-level check-in datasets that reflect diverse global regions. To address these gaps, we present Massive-STEPS (Massive Semantic Trajectories for Understanding POI Check-ins), a large-scale, publicly available benchmark dataset built upon the Semantic Trails dataset and enriched with semantic POI metadata. Massive-STEPS spans 15 geographically and culturally diverse cities and features more recent (2017-2018) and longer-duration (24 months) check-in data than prior datasets. We benchmarked a wide range of POI models on Massive-STEPS using both supervised and zero-shot approaches, and evaluated their performance across multiple urban contexts. By releasing Massive-STEPS, we aim to facilitate reproducible and equitable research in human mobility and POI trajectory modeling. The dataset and benchmarking code are available at: https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/Massive-STEPS.
From Legible to Inscrutable Trajectories: (Il)legible Motion Planning Accounting for Multiple Observers	2026-02-09	Show In cooperative environments, such as in factories or assistive scenarios, it is important for a robot to communicate its intentions to observers, who could be either other humans or robots. A legible trajectory allows an observer to quickly and accurately predict an agent's intention. In adversarial environments, such as in military operations or games, it is important for a robot to not communicate its intentions to observers. An illegible trajectory leads an observer to incorrectly predict the agent's intention or delays when an observer is able to make a correct prediction about the agent's intention. However, in some environments there are multiple observers, each of whom may be able to see only part of the environment, and each of whom may have different motives. In this work, we introduce the Mixed-Motive Limited-Observability Legible Motion Planning (MMLO-LMP) problem, which requires a motion planner to generate a trajectory that is legible to observers with positive motives and illegible to observers with negative motives while also considering the visibility limitations of each observer. We highlight multiple strategies an agent can take while still achieving the problem objective. We also present DUBIOUS, a trajectory optimizer that solves MMLO-LMP. Our results show that DUBIOUS can generate trajectories that balance legibility with the motives and limited visibility regions of the observers. Future work includes many variations of MMLO-LMP, including moving observers and observer teaming.	17 pages, 5 figures
Overview of PAN 2026: Voight-Kampff Generative AI Detection, Text Watermarking, Multi-Author Writing Style Analysis, Generative Plagiarism Detection, and Reasoning Trajectory Detection	2026-02-09	Show The goal of the PAN workshop is to advance computational stylometry and text forensics via objective and reproducible evaluation. In 2026, we run the following five tasks: (1) Voight-Kampff Generative AI Detection, particularly in mixed and obfuscated authorship scenarios, (2) Text Watermarking, a new task that aims to find new and benchmark the robustness of existing text watermarking schemes, (3) Multi-author Writing Style Analysis, a continued task that aims to find positions of authorship change, (4) Generative Plagiarism Detection, a continued task that targets source retrieval and text alignment between generated text and source documents, and (5) Reasoning Trajectory Detection, a new task that deals with source detection and safety detection of LLM-generated or human-written reasoning trajectories. As in previous years, PAN invites software submissions as easy-to-reproduce Docker containers for most of the tasks. Since PAN 2012, more than 1,100 submissions have been made this way via the TIRA experimentation platform.
Legs Over Arms: On the Predictive Value of Lower-Body Pose for Human Trajectory Prediction from Egocentric Robot Perception	2026-02-09	Show Predicting human trajectory is crucial for social robot navigation in crowded environments. While most existing approaches treat human as point mass, we present a study on multi-agent trajectory prediction that leverages different human skeletal features for improved forecast accuracy. In particular, we systematically evaluate the predictive utility of 2D and 3D skeletal keypoints and derived biomechanical cues as additional inputs. Through a comprehensive study on the JRDB dataset and another new dataset for social navigation with 360-degree panoramic videos, we find that focusing on lower-body 3D keypoints yields a 13% reduction in Average Displacement Error and augmenting 3D keypoint inputs with corresponding biomechanical cues provides a further 1-4% improvement. Notably, the performance gain persists when using 2D keypoint inputs extracted from equirectangular panoramic images, indicating that monocular surround vision can capture informative cues for motion forecasting. Our finding that robots can forecast human movement efficiently by watching their legs provides actionable insights for designing sensing capabilities for social robot navigation.	Accep... Accepted to IEEE ICRA 2026
Beyond Quantity: Trajectory Diversity Scaling for Code Agents	2026-02-09	Show As code large language models (LLMs) evolve into tool-interactive agents via the Model Context Protocol (MCP), their generalization is increasingly limited by low-quality synthetic data and the diminishing returns of quantity scaling. Moreover, quantity-centric scaling exhibits an early bottleneck that underutilizes trajectory data. We propose TDScaling, a Trajectory Diversity Scaling-based data synthesis framework for code agents that scales performance through diversity rather than raw volume. Under a fixed training budget, increasing trajectory diversity yields larger gains than adding more trajectories, improving the performance-cost trade-off for agent training. TDScaling integrates four innovations: (1) a Business Cluster mechanism that captures real-service logical dependencies; (2) a blueprint-driven multi-agent paradigm that enforces trajectory coherence; (3) an adaptive evolution mechanism that steers synthesis toward long-tail scenarios using Domain Entropy, Reasoning Mode Entropy, and Cumulative Action Complexity to prevent mode collapse; and (4) a sandboxed code tool that mitigates catastrophic forgetting of intrinsic coding capabilities. Experiments on general tool-use benchmarks (BFCL, tau^2-Bench) and code agent tasks (RebenchT, CodeCI, BIRD) demonstrate a win-win outcome: TDScaling improves both tool-use generalization and inherent coding proficiency. We plan to release the full codebase and the synthesized dataset (including 30,000+ tool clusters) upon publication.
Mimic Intent, Not Just Trajectories	2026-02-09	Show While imitation learning (IL) has achieved impressive success in dexterous manipulation through generative modeling and pretraining, state-of-the-art approaches like Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models still struggle with adaptation to environmental changes and skill transfer. We argue this stems from mimicking raw trajectories without understanding the underlying intent. To address this, we propose explicitly disentangling behavior intent from execution details in end-2-end IL: \textit{``Mimic Intent, Not just Trajectories'' (MINT)}. We achieve this via \textit{multi-scale frequency-space tokenization}, which enforces a spectral decomposition of action chunk representation. We learn action tokens with a multi-scale coarse-to-fine structure, and force the coarsest token to capture low-frequency global structure and finer tokens to encode high-frequency details. This yields an abstract \textit{Intent token} that facilitates planning and transfer, and multi-scale \textit{Execution tokens} that enable precise adaptation to environmental dynamics. Building on this hierarchy, our policy generates trajectories through \textit{next-scale autoregression}, performing progressive \textit{intent-to-execution reasoning}, thus boosting learning efficiency and generalization. Crucially, this disentanglement enables \textit{one-shot transfer} of skills, by simply injecting the Intent token from a demonstration into the autoregressive generation process. Experiments on several manipulation benchmarks and on a real robot demonstrate state-of-the-art success rates, superior inference efficiency, robust generalization against disturbances, and effective one-shot transfer.	Under review
Trajectory Stitching for Solving Inverse Problems with Flow-Based Models	2026-02-09	Show Flow-based generative models have emerged as powerful priors for solving inverse problems. One option is to directly optimize the initial latent code (noise), such that the flow output solves the inverse problem. However, this requires backpropagating through the entire generative trajectory, incurring high memory costs and numerical instability. We propose MS-Flow, which represents the trajectory as a sequence of intermediate latent states rather than a single initial code. By enforcing the flow dynamics locally and coupling segments through trajectory-matching penalties, MS-Flow alternates between updating intermediate latent states and enforcing consistency with observed data. This reduces memory consumption while improving reconstruction quality. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MS-Flow over existing methods on image recovery and inverse problems, including inpainting, super-resolution, and computed tomography.
CLEAR: A Knowledge-Centric Vessel Trajectory Analysis Platform	2026-02-09	Show Vessel trajectory data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is used widely in maritime analytics. Yet, analysis is difficult for non-expert users due to the incompleteness and complexity of AIS data. We present CLEAR, a knowledge-centric vessel trajectory analysis platform that aims to overcome these barriers. By leveraging the reasoning and generative capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), CLEAR transforms raw AIS data into complete, interpretable, and easily explorable vessel trajectories through a Structured Data-derived Knowledge Graph (SD-KG). As part of the demo, participants can configure parameters to automatically download and process AIS data, observe how trajectories are completed and annotated, inspect both raw and imputed segments together with their SD-KG evidence, and interactively explore the SD-KG through a dedicated graph viewer, gaining an intuitive and transparent understanding of vessel movements.	4 pag... 4 pages, and 5 Figures
Human-Like Trajectories Generation via Receding Horizon Tracking Applied to the TickTacking Interface	2026-02-09	Show TickTacking is a rhythm-based interface that allows users to control a pointer in a two-dimensional space through dual-button tapping. This paper investigates the generation of human-like trajectories using a receding horizon approach applied to the TickTacking interface in a target-tracking task. By analyzing user-generated trajectories, we identify key human behavioral features and incorporate them in a controller that mimics these behaviors. The performance of this human-inspired controller is evaluated against a baseline optimal-control-based agent, demonstrating the importance of specific control features for achieving human-like interaction. These findings contribute to the broader goal of developing rhythm-based human-machine interfaces by offering design insights that enhance user performance, improve intuitiveness, and reduce interaction frustration
Post-Collision Trajectory Restoration for a Single-track Ackermann Vehicle using Heuristic Steering and Tractive Force Functions	2026-02-09	Show Post-collision trajectory restoration is a safety-critical capability for autonomous vehicles, as impact-induced lateral motion and yaw transients can rapidly drive the vehicle away from the intended path. This paper proposes a structured heuristic recovery control law that jointly commands steering and tractive force for a generalized single-track Ackermann vehicle model. The formulation explicitly accounts for time-varying longitudinal velocity in the lateral-yaw dynamics and retains nonlinear steering-coupled interaction terms that are commonly simplified in the literature. Unlike approaches that assume constant longitudinal speed, the proposed design targets the transient post-impact regime where speed variations and nonlinear coupling significantly influence recovery. The method is evaluated in simulation on the proposed generalized single-track model and a standard 3DOF single-track reference model in MATLAB, demonstrating consistent post-collision restoration behaviour across representative initial post-impact conditions.	10 pages, 6 figures
Is Flow Matching Just Trajectory Replay for Sequential Data?	2026-02-09	Show Flow matching (FM) is increasingly used for time-series generation, but it is not well understood whether it learns a general dynamical structure or simply performs an effective "trajectory replay". We study this question by deriving the velocity field targeted by the empirical FM objective on sequential data, in the limit of perfect function approximation. For the Gaussian conditional paths commonly used in practice, we show that the implied sampler is an ODE whose dynamics constitutes a nonparametric, memory-augmented continuous-time dynamical system. The optimal field admits a closed-form expression as a similarity-weighted mixture of instantaneous velocities induced by past transitions, making the dataset dependence explicit and interpretable. This perspective positions neural FM models trained by stochastic optimization as parametric surrogates of an ideal nonparametric solution. Using the structure of the optimal field, we study sampling and approximation schemes that improve the efficiency and numerical robustness of ODE-based generation. On nonlinear dynamical system benchmarks, the resulting closed-form sampler yields strong probabilistic forecasts directly from historical transitions, without training.	51 pages
Learning-based Initialization of Trajectory Optimization for Path-following Problems of Redundant Manipulators	2026-02-09	Show Trajectory optimization (TO) is an efficient tool to generate a redundant manipulator's joint trajectory following a 6-dimensional Cartesian path. The optimization performance largely depends on the quality of initial trajectories. However, the selection of a high-quality initial trajectory is non-trivial and requires a considerable time budget due to the extremely large space of the solution trajectories and the lack of prior knowledge about task constraints in configuration space. To alleviate the issue, we present a learning-based initial trajectory generation method that generates high-quality initial trajectories in a short time budget by adopting example-guided reinforcement learning. In addition, we suggest a null-space projected imitation reward to consider null-space constraints by efficiently learning kinematically feasible motion captured in expert demonstrations. Our statistical evaluation in simulation shows the improved optimality, efficiency, and applicability of TO when we plug in our method's output, compared with three other baselines. We also show the performance improvement and feasibility via real-world experiments with a seven-degree-of-freedom manipulator.	Accep... Accepted at ICRA 2023. Project page: https://sgvr.kaist.ac.kr/~msyoon/papers/ICRA23_RLITG/
GeoGen: A Two-stage Coarse-to-Fine Framework for Fine-grained Synthetic Location-based Social Network Trajectory Generation	2026-02-08	Show Location-Based Social Network (LBSN) check-in trajectory data are important for many practical applications, like POI recommendation, advertising, and pandemic intervention. However, the high collection costs and ever-increasing privacy concerns prevent us from accessing large-scale LBSN trajectory data. The recent advances in synthetic data generation provide us with a new opportunity to achieve this, which utilizes generative AI to generate synthetic data that preserves the characteristics of real data while ensuring privacy protection. However, generating synthetic LBSN check-in trajectories remains challenging due to their spatially discrete, temporally irregular nature and the complex spatio-temporal patterns caused by sparse activities and uncertain human mobility. To address this challenge, we propose GeoGen, a two-stage coarse-to-fine framework for large-scale LBSN check-in trajectory generation. In the first stage, we reconstruct spatially continuous, temporally regular latent movement sequences from the original LBSN check-in trajectories and then design a Sparsity-aware Spatio-temporal Diffusion model (S$^2$TDiff) with an efficient denosing network to learn their underlying behavioral patterns. In the second stage, we design Coarse2FineNet, a Transformer-based Seq2Seq architecture equipped with a dynamic context fusion mechanism in the encoder and a multi-task hybrid-head decoder, which generates fine-grained LBSN trajectories based on coarse-grained latent movement sequences by modeling semantic relevance and behavioral uncertainty. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets show that GeoGen excels state-of-the-art models for both fidelity and utility evaluation, e.g., it increases over 69% and 55% in distance and radius metrics on the FS-TKY dataset.
R-Stitch: Dynamic Trajectory Stitching for Efficient Reasoning	2026-02-08	Show Chain-of-thought (CoT) enhances the problem-solving ability of large language models (LLMs) but incurs substantial inference cost due to long autoregressive trajectories. Existing acceleration strategies either shorten traces via early stopping or compression, or adopt speculative decoding with a smaller model. However, speculative decoding provides limited gains when model agreement is low and rigidly enforces token-level consistency, overlooking the observation that some smaller models, when correct, produce significantly more concise reasoning traces that could reduce inference length. We introduce R-Stitch, a training-free hybrid decoding framework that leverages token-level entropy as an uncertainty proxy to delegate computation between a small language model (SLM) and an LLM. Our analysis shows that high-entropy tokens are more likely to induce errors, motivating an entropy-guided routing strategy that lets the SLM efficiently handle low-entropy tokens while delegating uncertain ones to the LLM, thereby avoiding full rollbacks and preserving answer quality. We further extend this design with R-Stitch$^{+}$, which learns an adaptive routing policy to adjust the token budget dynamically beyond fixed thresholds. By jointly reducing per-token decoding complexity and the number of generated tokens, our method achieves substantial acceleration with negligible accuracy loss. Concretely, it attains peak speedups of 3.00$\times$ on DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B, 3.85$\times$ on 14B, and 4.10$\times$ on QWQ-32B while maintaining accuracy comparable to full LLM decoding. Moreover, it naturally enables adaptive efficiency--accuracy trade-offs that can be tailored to diverse computational budgets without retraining.
Trajectory-Aware Multi-RIS Activation and Configuration: A Riemannian Diffusion Method	2026-02-08	Show Reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RISs) offer a low-cost, energy-efficient means for enhancing wireless coverage. Yet, their inherently programmable reflections may unintentionally amplify interference, particularly in large-scale, multi-RIS-enabled mobile communication scenarios where dense user mobility and frequent line-of-sight overlaps can severely degrade the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR). To address this challenge, this paper presents a novel generative multi-RIS control framework that jointly optimizes the ON/OFF activation patterns of multiple RISs in the smart wireless environment and the phase configurations of the activated RISs based on predictions of multi-user trajectories and interference patterns. We specially design a long short-term memory (LSTM) artificial neural network, enriched with speed and heading features, to forecast multi-user trajectories, thereby enabling reconstruction of future channel state information. To overcome the highly nonconvex nature of the multi-RIS control problem, we develop a Riemannian diffusion model on the torus to generate geometry-consistent phase-configuration, where the reverse diffusion process is dynamically guided by reinforcement learning. We then rigorously derive the optimal ON/OFF states of the metasurfaces by comparing predicted achievable rates under RIS activation and deactivation conditions. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves up to 30% SINR improvement over learning-based control and up to 44% gain compared with the RIS always-on scheme, while consistently outperforming state-of-the-art baselines across different transmit powers, RIS configurations, and interference densities.
SPOT: Spatio-Temporal Obstacle-free Trajectory Planning for UAVs in an Unknown Dynamic Environment	2026-02-08	Show We address the problem of reactive motion planning for quadrotors operating in unknown environments with dynamic obstacles. Our approach leverages a 4-dimensional spatio-temporal planner, integrated with vision-based Safe Flight Corridor (SFC) generation and trajectory optimization. Unlike prior methods that rely on map fusion, our framework is mapless, enabling collision avoidance directly from perception while reducing computational overhead. Dynamic obstacles are detected and tracked using a vision-based object segmentation and tracking pipeline, allowing robust classification of static versus dynamic elements in the scene. To further enhance robustness, we introduce a backup planning module that reactively avoids dynamic obstacles when no direct path to the goal is available, mitigating the risk of collisions during deadlock situations. We validate our method extensively in both simulation and real-world hardware experiments, and benchmark it against state-of-the-art approaches, showing significant advantages for reactive UAV navigation in dynamic, unknown environments.	Accep... Accepted for publication at ICRA 2026
Unified Biomolecular Trajectory Generation via Pretrained Variational Bridge	2026-02-07	Show Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations provide a fundamental tool for characterizing molecular behavior at full atomic resolution, but their applicability is severely constrained by the computational cost. To address this, a surge of deep generative models has recently emerged to learn dynamics at coarsened timesteps for efficient trajectory generation, yet they either generalize poorly across systems or, due to limited molecular diversity of trajectory data, fail to fully exploit structural information to improve generative fidelity. Here, we present the Pretrained Variational Bridge (PVB) in an encoder-decoder fashion, which maps the initial structure into a noised latent space and transports it toward stage-specific targets through augmented bridge matching. This unifies training on both single-structure and paired trajectory data, enabling consistent use of cross-domain structural knowledge across training stages. Moreover, for protein-ligand complexes, we further introduce a reinforcement learning-based optimization via adjoint matching that speeds progression toward the holo state, which supports efficient post-optimization of docking poses. Experiments on proteins and protein-ligand complexes demonstrate that PVB faithfully reproduces thermodynamic and kinetic observables from MD while delivering stable and efficient generative dynamics.	The F... The Fourteenth International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR 2026)
RAPiD: Real-time Deterministic Trajectory Planning via Diffusion Behavior Priors for Safe and Efficient Autonomous Driving	2026-02-07	Show Diffusion-based trajectory planners have demonstrated strong capability for modeling the multimodal nature of human driving behavior, but their reliance on iterative stochastic sampling poses critical challenges for real-time, safety-critical deployment. In this work, we present RAPiD, a deterministic policy extraction framework that distills a pretrained diffusion-based planner into an efficient policy while eliminating diffusion sampling. Using score-regularized policy optimization, we leverage the score function of a pre-trained diffusion planner as a behavior prior to regularize policy learning. To promote safety and passenger comfort, the policy is optimized using a critic trained to imitate a predictive driver controller, providing dense, safety-focused supervision beyond conventional imitation learning. Evaluations demonstrate that RAPiD achieves competitive performance on closed-loop nuPlan scenarios with an 8x speedup over diffusion baselines, while achieving state-of-the-art generalization among learning-based planners on the interPlan benchmark. The official website of this work is: https://github.com/ruturajreddy/RAPiD.
TermiGen: High-Fidelity Environment and Robust Trajectory Synthesis for Terminal Agents	2026-02-06	Show Executing complex terminal tasks remains a significant challenge for open-weight LLMs, constrained by two fundamental limitations. First, high-fidelity, executable training environments are scarce: environments synthesized from real-world repositories are not diverse and scalable, while trajectories synthesized by LLMs suffer from hallucinations. Second, standard instruction tuning uses expert trajectories that rarely exhibit simple mistakes common to smaller models. This creates a distributional mismatch, leaving student models ill-equipped to recover from their own runtime failures. To bridge these gaps, we introduce TermiGen, an end-to-end pipeline for synthesizing verifiable environments and resilient expert trajectories. Termi-Gen first generates functionally valid tasks and Docker containers via an iterative multi-agent refinement loop. Subsequently, we employ a Generator-Critic protocol that actively injects errors during trajectory collection, synthesizing data rich in error-correction cycles. Fine-tuned on this TermiGen-generated dataset, our TermiGen-Qwen2.5-Coder-32B achieves a 31.3% pass rate on TerminalBench. This establishes a new open-weights state-of-the-art, outperforming existing baselines and notably surpassing capable proprietary models such as o4-mini. Dataset is avaiable at https://github.com/ucsb-mlsec/terminal-bench-env.
Lyapunov Constrained Soft Actor-Critic (LC-SAC) using Koopman Operator Theory for Quadrotor Trajectory Tracking	2026-02-06	Show Reinforcement Learning (RL) has achieved remarkable success in solving complex sequential decision-making problems. However, its application to safety-critical physical systems remains constrained by the lack of stability guarantees. Standard RL algorithms prioritize reward maximization, often yielding policies that may induce oscillations or unbounded state divergence. There has been significant work in incorporating Lyapunov-based stability guarantees in RL algorithms with key challenges being selecting a candidate Lyapunov function, computational complexity by using excessive function approximators and conservative policies by incorporating stability criterion in the learning process. In this work we propose a novel Lyapunov-constrained Soft Actor-Critic (LC-SAC) algorithm using Koopman operator theory. We propose use of extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) to produce a linear approximation of the system and use this approximation to derive a closed form solution for candidate Lyapunov function. This derived Lyapunov function is incorporated in the SAC algorithm to further provide guarantees for a policy that stabilizes the nonlinear system. The results are evaluated trajectory tracking of a 2D Quadrotor environment based on safe-control-gym. The proposed algorithm shows training convergence and decaying violations for Lyapunov stability criterion compared to baseline vanilla SAC algorithm. GitHub Repository: https://github.com/DhruvKushwaha/LC-SAC-Quadrotor-Trajectory-Tracking	11 pa... 11 pages, 7 Figures, submitted to IEEE RA-L
Accelerating Diffusion Planners in Offline RL via Reward-Aware Consistency Trajectory Distillation	2026-02-06	Show Although diffusion models have achieved strong results in decision-making tasks, their slow inference speed remains a key limitation. While consistency models offer a potential solution, existing applications to decision-making either struggle with suboptimal demonstrations under behavior cloning or rely on complex concurrent training of multiple networks under the actor-critic framework. In this work, we propose a novel approach to consistency distillation for offline reinforcement learning that directly incorporates reward optimization into the distillation process. Our method achieves single-step sampling while generating higher-reward action trajectories through decoupled training and noise-free reward signals. Empirical evaluations on the Gym MuJoCo, FrankaKitchen, and long horizon planning benchmarks demonstrate that our approach can achieve a 9.7% improvement over previous state-of-the-art while offering up to 142x speedup over diffusion counterparts in inference time.
SURE: Safe Uncertainty-Aware Robot-Environment Interaction using Trajectory Optimization	2026-02-06	Show Robotic tasks involving contact interactions pose significant challenges for trajectory optimization due to discontinuous dynamics. Conventional formulations typically assume deterministic contact events, which limit robustness and adaptability in real-world settings. In this work, we propose SURE, a robust trajectory optimization framework that explicitly accounts for contact timing uncertainty. By allowing multiple trajectories to branch from possible pre-impact states and later rejoin a shared trajectory, SURE achieves both robustness and computational efficiency within a unified optimization framework. We evaluate SURE on two representative tasks with unknown impact times. In a cart-pole balancing task involving uncertain wall location, SURE achieves an average improvement of 21.6% in success rate when branch switching is enabled during control. In an egg-catching experiment using a robotic manipulator, SURE improves the success rate by 40%. These results demonstrate that SURE substantially enhances robustness compared to conventional nominal formulations.
DynaRetarget: Dynamically-Feasible Retargeting using Sampling-Based Trajectory Optimization	2026-02-06	Show In this paper, we introduce DynaRetarget, a complete pipeline for retargeting human motions to humanoid control policies. The core component of DynaRetarget is a novel Sampling-Based Trajectory Optimization (SBTO) framework that refines imperfect kinematic trajectories into dynamically feasible motions. SBTO incrementally advances the optimization horizon, enabling optimization over the entire trajectory for long-horizon tasks. We validate DynaRetarget by successfully retargeting hundreds of humanoid-object demonstrations and achieving higher success rates than the state of the art. The framework also generalizes across varying object properties, such as mass, size, and geometry, using the same tracking objective. This ability to robustly retarget diverse demonstrations opens the door to generating large-scale synthetic datasets of humanoid loco-manipulation trajectories, addressing a major bottleneck in real-world data collection.
Orientation-Robust Latent Motion Trajectory Learning for Annotation-free Cardiac Phase Detection in Fetal Echocardiography	2026-02-06	Show Fetal echocardiography is essential for detecting congenital heart disease (CHD), facilitating pregnancy management, optimized delivery planning, and timely postnatal interventions. Among standard imaging planes, the four-chamber (4CH) view provides comprehensive information for CHD diagnosis, where clinicians carefully inspect the end-diastolic (ED) and end-systolic (ES) phases to evaluate cardiac structure and motion. Automated detection of these cardiac phases is thus a critical component toward fully automated CHD analysis. Yet, in the absence of fetal electrocardiography (ECG), manual identification of ED and ES frames remains a labor-intensive bottleneck. We present ORBIT (Orientation-Robust Beat Inference from Trajectories), a self-supervised framework that identifies cardiac phases without manual annotations under various fetal heart orientation. ORBIT employs registration as self-supervision task and learns a latent motion trajectory of cardiac deformation, whose turning points capture transitions between cardiac relaxation and contraction, enabling accurate and orientation-robust localization of ED and ES frames across diverse fetal positions. Trained exclusively on normal fetal echocardiography videos, ORBIT achieves consistent performance on both normal (MAE = 1.9 frames for ED and 1.6 for ES) and CHD cases (MAE = 2.4 frames for ED and 2.1 for ES), outperforming existing annotation-free approaches constrained by fixed orientation assumptions. These results highlight the potential of ORBIT to facilitate robust cardiac phase detection directly from 4CH fetal echocardiography.	Prepr... Preprint, Submitted to a journal
Crowd-FM: Learned Optimal Selection of Conditional Flow Matching-generated Trajectories for Crowd Navigation	2026-02-06	Show Safe and computationally efficient local planning for mobile robots in dense, unstructured human crowds remains a fundamental challenge. Moreover, ensuring that robot trajectories are similar to how a human moves will increase the acceptance of the robot in human environments. In this paper, we present Crowd-FM, a learning-based approach to address both safety and human-likeness challenges. Our approach has two novel components. First, we train a Conditional Flow-Matching (CFM) policy over a dataset of optimally controlled trajectories to learn a set of collision-free primitives that a robot can choose at any given scenario. The chosen optimal control solver can generate multi-modal collision-free trajectories, allowing the CFM policy to learn a diverse set of maneuvers. Secondly, we learn a score function over a dataset of human demonstration trajectories that provides a human-likeness score for the flow primitives. At inference time, computing the optimal trajectory requires selecting the one with the highest score. Our approach improves the state-of-the-art by showing that our CFM policy alone can produce collision-free navigation with a higher success rate than existing learning-based baselines. Furthermore, when augmented with inference-time refinement, our approach can outperform even expensive optimisation-based planning approaches. Finally, we validate that our scoring network can select trajectories closer to the expert data than a manually designed cost function.	Accep... Accepted at IEEE ICRA 2026. Authors Antareep Singha and Laksh Nanwani have equal contributions
Sampling for Model Predictive Trajectory Planning in Autonomous Driving using Normalizing Flows	2026-02-06	Show Alongside optimization-based planners, sampling-based approaches are often used in trajectory planning for autonomous driving due to their simplicity. Model predictive path integral control is a framework that builds upon optimization principles while incorporating stochastic sampling of input trajectories. This paper investigates several sampling approaches for trajectory generation. In this context, normalizing flows originating from the field of variational inference are considered for the generation of sampling distributions, as they model transformations of simple to more complex distributions. Accordingly, learning-based normalizing flow models are trained for a more efficient exploration of the input domain for the task at hand. The developed algorithm and the proposed sampling distributions are evaluated in two simulation scenarios.	Accep... Accepted to be published as part of the 2024 IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium (IV), Jeju Shinhwa World, Jeju Island, Korea, June 2-5, 2024
Force Generative Imitation Learning: Bridging Position Trajectory and Force Commands through Control Technique	2026-02-06	Show In contact-rich tasks, while position trajectories are often easy to obtain, appropriate force commands are typically unknown. Although it is conceivable to generate force commands using a pretrained foundation model such as Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models, force control is highly dependent on the specific hardware of the robot, which makes the application of such models challenging. To bridge this gap, we propose a force generative model that estimates force commands from given position trajectories. However, when dealing with unseen position trajectories, the model struggles to generate accurate force commands. To address this, we introduce a feedback control mechanism. Our experiments reveal that feedback control does not converge when the force generative model has memory. We therefore adopt a model without memory, enabling stable feedback control. This approach allows the system to generate force commands effectively, even for unseen position trajectories, improving generalization for real-world robot writing tasks.	Accep... Accepted for IEEE Access
TrajAD: Trajectory Anomaly Detection for Trustworthy LLM Agents	2026-02-06	Show We address the problem of runtime trajectory anomaly detection, a critical capability for enabling trustworthy LLM agents. Current safety measures predominantly focus on static input/output filtering. However, we argue that ensuring LLM agents reliability requires auditing the intermediate execution process. In this work, we formulate the task of Trajectory Anomaly Detection. The goal is not merely detection, but precise error localization. This capability is essential for enabling efficient rollback-and-retry. To achieve this, we construct TrajBench, a dataset synthesized via a perturb-and-complete strategy to cover diverse procedural anomalies. Using this benchmark, we investigate the capability of models in process supervision. We observe that general-purpose LLMs, even with zero-shot prompting, struggle to identify and localize these anomalies. This reveals that generalized capabilities do not automatically translate to process reliability. To address this, we propose TrajAD, a specialized verifier trained with fine-grained process supervision. Our approach outperforms baselines, demonstrating that specialized supervision is essential for building trustworthy agents.	9 pag... 9 pages, 5 figures, 1 table
FlowConsist: Make Your Flow Consistent with Real Trajectory	2026-02-06	Show Fast flow models accelerate the iterative sampling process by learning to directly predict ODE path integrals, enabling one-step or few-step generation. However, we argue that current fast-flow training paradigms suffer from two fundamental issues. First, conditional velocities constructed from randomly paired noise-data samples introduce systematic trajectory drift, preventing models from following a consistent ODE path. Second, the model's approximation errors accumulate over time steps, leading to severe deviations across long time intervals. To address these issues, we propose FlowConsist, a training framework designed to enforce trajectory consistency in fast flows. We propose a principled alternative that replaces conditional velocities with the marginal velocities predicted by the model itself, aligning optimization with the true trajectory. To further address error accumulation over time steps, we introduce a trajectory rectification strategy that aligns the marginal distributions of generated and real samples at every time step along the trajectory. Our method establishes a new state-of-the-art on ImageNet 256$\times$256, achieving an FID of 1.52 with only 1 sampling step.
STFlow: Data-Coupled Flow Matching for Geometric Trajectory Simulation	2026-02-05	Show Simulating trajectories of dynamical systems is a fundamental problem in a wide range of fields such as molecular dynamics, biochemistry, and pedestrian dynamics. Machine learning has become an invaluable tool for scaling physics-based simulators and developing models directly from experimental data. In particular, recent advances in deep generative modeling and geometric deep learning enable probabilistic simulation by learning complex trajectory distributions while respecting intrinsic permutation and time-shift symmetries. However, trajectories of N-body systems are commonly characterized by high sensitivity to perturbations leading to bifurcations, as well as multi-scale temporal and spatial correlations. To address these challenges, we introduce STFlow (Spatio-Temporal Flow), a generative model based on graph neural networks and hierarchical convolutions. By incorporating data-dependent couplings within the Flow Matching framework, STFlow denoises starting from conditioned random-walks instead of Gaussian noise. This novel informed prior simplifies the learning task by reducing transport cost, increasing training and inference efficiency. We validate our approach on N-body systems, molecular dynamics, and human trajectory forecasting. Across these benchmarks, STFlow achieves the lowest prediction errors with fewer simulation steps and improved scalability.	18 pages, 12 figures
Characterizing Human Semantic Navigation in Concept Production as Trajectories in Embedding Space	2026-02-05	Show Semantic representations can be framed as a structured, dynamic knowledge space through which humans navigate to retrieve and manipulate meaning. To investigate how humans traverse this geometry, we introduce a framework that represents concept production as navigation through embedding space. Using different transformer text embedding models, we construct participant-specific semantic trajectories based on cumulative embeddings and extract geometric and dynamical metrics, including distance to next, distance to centroid, entropy, velocity, and acceleration. These measures capture both scalar and directional aspects of semantic navigation, providing a computationally grounded view of semantic representation search as movement in a geometric space. We evaluate the framework on four datasets across different languages, spanning different property generation tasks: Neurodegenerative, Swear verbal fluency, Property listing task in Italian, and in German. Across these contexts, our approach distinguishes between clinical groups and concept types, offering a mathematical framework that requires minimal human intervention compared to typical labor-intensive linguistic pre-processing methods. Comparison with a non-cumulative approach reveals that cumulative embeddings work best for longer trajectories, whereas shorter ones may provide too little context, favoring the non-cumulative alternative. Critically, different embedding models yielded similar results, highlighting similarities between different learned representations despite different training pipelines. By framing semantic navigation as a structured trajectory through embedding space, bridging cognitive modeling with learned representation, thereby establishing a pipeline for quantifying semantic representation dynamics with applications in clinical research, cross-linguistic analysis, and the assessment of artificial cognition.	10 pa... 10 pages, 6 figures (excluding refs/appendix). Accepted to ICLR 2026
Multi-Agent Inverted Transformer for Flight Trajectory Prediction	2026-02-05	Show Flight trajectory prediction for multiple aircraft is essential and provides critical insights into how aircraft navigate within current air traffic flows. However, predicting multi-agent flight trajectories is inherently challenging. One of the major difficulties is modeling both the individual aircraft behaviors over time and the complex interactions between flights. Generating explainable prediction outcomes is also a challenge. Therefore, we propose a Multi-Agent Inverted Transformer, MAIFormer, as a novel neural architecture that predicts multi-agent flight trajectories. The proposed framework features two key attention modules: (i) masked multivariate attention, which captures spatio-temporal patterns of individual aircraft, and (ii) agent attention, which models the social patterns among multiple agents in complex air traffic scenes. We evaluated MAIFormer using a real-world automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast flight trajectory dataset from the terminal airspace of Incheon International Airport in South Korea. The experimental results show that MAIFormer achieves the best performance across multiple metrics and outperforms other methods. In addition, MAIFormer produces prediction outcomes that are interpretable from a human perspective, which improves both the transparency of the model and its practical utility in air traffic control.	11 pa... 11 pages, 8 figures, submitted for IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation System
Bifrost: Steering Strategic Trajectories to Bridge Contextual Gaps for Self-Improving Agents	2026-02-05	Show Autonomous agents excel in self-improvement through reflection and iterative refinement, which reuse successful task trajectories as in-context examples to assist subsequent reasoning. However, shifting across tasks often introduces a context mismatch. Hence, existing approaches either discard the trajectories or manipulate them using heuristics, leading to a non-negligible fine-tuning cost or unguaranteed performance. To bridge this gap, we reveal a context-trajectory correlation, where shifts of context are highly parallel with shifts of trajectory. Based on this finding, we propose BrIdge contextual gap FoR imprOvised trajectory STeering (Bifrost), a training-free method that leverages context differences to precisely guide the adaptation of previously solved trajectories towards the target task, mitigating the misalignment caused by context shifts. Our trajectory adaptation is conducted at the representation level using agent hidden states, ensuring trajectory transformation accurately aligns with the target context in a shared space. Across diverse benchmarks, Bifrost consistently outperforms existing trajectory reuse and finetuned self-improvement methods, demonstrating that agents can effectively leverage past experiences despite substantial context shifts.
From Latent Signals to Reflection Behavior: Tracing Meta-Cognitive Activation Trajectory in R1-Style LLMs	2026-02-05	Show R1-style LLMs have attracted growing attention for their capacity for self-reflection, yet the internal mechanisms underlying such behavior remain unclear. To bridge this gap, we anchor on the onset of reflection behavior and trace its layer-wise activation trajectory. Using the logit lens to read out token-level semantics, we uncover a structured progression: (i) Latent-control layers, where an approximate linear direction encodes the semantics of thinking budget; (ii) Semantic-pivot layers, where discourse-level cues, including turning-point and summarization cues, surface and dominate the probability mass; and (iii) Behavior-overt layers, where the likelihood of reflection-behavior tokens begins to rise until they become highly likely to be sampled. Moreover, our targeted interventions uncover a causal chain across these stages: prompt-level semantics modulate the projection of activations along latent-control directions, thereby inducing competition between turning-point and summarization cues in semantic-pivot layers, which in turn regulates the sampling likelihood of reflection-behavior tokens in behavior-overt layers. Collectively, our findings suggest a human-like meta-cognitive process-progressing from latent monitoring, to discourse-level regulation, and to finally overt self-reflection. Our analysis code can be found at https://github.com/DYR1/S3-CoT.
Statistical description and dimension reduction of continuous time categorical trajectories with multivariate functional principal components	2026-02-05	Show Getting tools that allow simple representations and comparisons of a set of categorical trajectories is of major interest for statisticians. Without loosing any information, we associate to each state a binary random indicator function, taking values in ${0,1}$, and turn the problem of statistical description of the categorical trajectories into a multivariate functional principal components analysis. This viewpoint encompasses experimental frameworks where two or more states can be observed simultaneously. The sample paths being piecewise constant, with a finite number of jumps, this a rare case in functional data analysis in which the trajectories are not supposed to be continuous and can be observed exhaustively. Under the weak hypothesis assuming only continuity in probability of the $0-1$ trajectories, the means and the (multivariate) covariance function are continuous and have interpretations in terms of departure from independence of the joint probabilities. Considering a functional data point of view, we show that the binary trajectories, which are right-continuous functions with left-hand limits, can be seen as random elements in the Hilbert space of square integrable functions. The multivariate functional principal components are simple to interpret and we show that we can get consistent estimators of the mean trajectories and the covariance functions under weak regularity assumptions. The ability of the approach to represent categorical trajectories in a small dimension space is illustrated on a data set of sensory perceptions, considering different gustometer-controlled stimuli experiments.
TrajVG: 3D Trajectory-Coupled Visual Geometry Learning	2026-02-05	Show Feed-forward multi-frame 3D reconstruction models often degrade on videos with object motion. Global-reference becomes ambiguous under multiple motions, while the local pointmap relies heavily on estimated relative poses and can drift, causing cross-frame misalignment and duplicated structures. We propose TrajVG, a reconstruction framework that makes cross-frame 3D correspondence an explicit prediction by estimating camera-coordinate 3D trajectories. We couple sparse trajectories, per-frame local point maps, and relative camera poses with geometric consistency objectives: (i) bidirectional trajectory-pointmap consistency with controlled gradient flow, and (ii) a pose consistency objective driven by static track anchors that suppresses gradients from dynamic regions. To scale training to in-the-wild videos where 3D trajectory labels are scarce, we reformulate the same coupling constraints into self-supervised objectives using only pseudo 2D tracks, enabling unified training with mixed supervision. Extensive experiments across 3D tracking, pose estimation, pointmap reconstruction, and video depth show that TrajVG surpasses the current feedforward performance baseline.
Generalizable Trajectory Prediction via Inverse Reinforcement Learning with Mamba-Graph Architecture	2026-02-05	Show Accurate driving behavior modeling is fundamental to safe and efficient trajectory prediction, yet remains challenging in complex traffic scenarios. This paper presents a novel Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) framework that captures human-like decision-making by inferring diverse reward functions, enabling robust cross-scenario adaptability. The learned reward function is utilized to maximize the likelihood of output by integrating Mamba blocks for efficient long-sequence dependency modeling with graph attention networks to encode spatial interactions among traffic agents. Comprehensive evaluations on urban intersections and roundabouts demonstrate that the proposed method not only outperforms various popular approaches in terms of prediction accuracy but also achieves 2.3 times higher generalization performance to unseen scenarios compared to other baselines, achieving adaptability in Out-of-Distribution settings that is competitive with fine-tuning.
Physics-Informed Diffusion Models for Vehicle Speed Trajectory Generation	2026-02-04	Show Synthetic vehicle speed trajectory generation is essential for evaluating vehicle control algorithms and connected vehicle technologies. Traditional Markov chain approaches suffer from discretization artifacts and limited expressiveness. This paper proposes a physics-informed diffusion framework for conditional micro-trip synthesis, combining a dual-channel speed-acceleration representation with soft physics constraints that resolve optimization conflicts inherent to hard-constraint formulations. We compare a 1D U-Net architecture against a transformer-based Conditional Score-based Diffusion Imputation (CSDI) model using 6,367 GPS-derived micro-trips. CSDI achieves superior distribution matching (Wasserstein distance 0.30 for speed, 0.026 for acceleration), strong indistinguishability from real data (discriminative score 0.49), and validated utility for downstream energy assessment tasks. The methodology enables scalable generation of realistic driving profiles for intelligent transportation systems (ITS) applications without costly field data collection.
MIGHTY: Hermite Spline-based Efficient Trajectory Planning	2026-02-04	Show Hard-constraint trajectory planners often rely on commercial solvers and demand substantial computational resources. Existing soft-constraint methods achieve faster computation, but either (1) decouple spatial and temporal optimization or (2) restrict the search space. To overcome these limitations, we introduce MIGHTY, a Hermite spline-based planner that performs spatiotemporal optimization while fully leveraging the continuous search space of a spline. In simulation, MIGHTY achieves a 9.3% reduction in computation time and a 13.1% reduction in travel time over state-of-the-art baselines, with a 100% success rate. In hardware, MIGHTY completes multiple high-speed flights up to 6.7 m/s in a cluttered static environment and long-duration flights with dynamically added obstacles.	10 pages, 12 figures
Fine-grained Classification of A Million Life Trajectories from Wikipedia	2026-02-04	Show Life trajectories of notable people convey essential messages for human dynamics research. These trajectories consist of (\textit{person, time, location, activity type}) tuples recording when and where a person was born, went to school, started a job, or fought in a war. However, current studies only cover limited activity types such as births and deaths, lacking large-scale fine-grained trajectories. Using a tool that extracts (\textit{person, time, location}) triples from Wikipedia, we formulate the problem of classifying these triples into 24 carefully-defined types using textual context as complementary information. The challenge is that triple entities are often scattered in noisy contexts. We use syntactic graphs to bring triple entities and relevant information closer, fusing them with text embeddings to classify life trajectory activities. Since Wikipedia text quality varies, we use LLMs to refine the text for more standardized syntactic graphs. Our framework achieves 84.5% accuracy, surpassing baselines. We construct the largest fine-grained life trajectory dataset with 3.8 million labeled activities for 589,193 individuals spanning 3 centuries. In the end, we showcase how these trajectories can support grand narratives of human dynamics across time and space. Code/data are publicly available.

Graph Neural Networks

Title	Date	Abstract	Comment
Predicting The Cop Number Using Machine Learning	2026-02-18	Show Cops and Robbers is a pursuit evasion game played on a graph, first introduced independently by Quilliot \cite{quilliot1978jeux} and Nowakowski and Winkler \cite{NOWAKOWSKI1983235} over four decades ago. A main interest in recent the literature is identifying the cop number of graph families. The cop number of a graph, $c(G)$, is defined as the minimum number of cops required to guarantee capture of the robber. Determining the cop number is computationally difficult and exact algorithms for this are typically restricted to small graph families. This paper investigates whether classical machine learning methods and graph neural networks can accurately predict a graph's cop number from its structural properties and identify which properties most strongly influence this prediction. Of the classical machine learning models, tree-based models achieve high accuracy in prediction despite class imbalance, whereas graph neural networks achieve comparable results without explicit feature engineering. The interpretability analysis shows that the most predictive features are related to node connectivity, clustering, clique structure, and width parameters, which aligns with known theoretical results. Our findings suggest that machine learning approaches can be used in complement with existing cop number algorithms by offering scalable approximations where computation is infeasible.	8 pages
Hardware-accelerated graph neural networks: an alternative approach for neuromorphic event-based audio classification and keyword spotting on SoC FPGA	2026-02-18	Show As the volume of data recorded by embedded edge sensors increases, particularly from neuromorphic devices producing discrete event streams, there is a growing need for hardware-aware neural architectures that enable efficient, low-latency, and energy-conscious local processing. We present an FPGA implementation of event-graph neural networks for audio processing. We utilise an artificial cochlea that converts time-series signals into sparse event data, reducing memory and computation costs. Our architecture was implemented on a SoC FPGA and evaluated on two open-source datasets. For classification task, our baseline floating-point model achieves 92.7% accuracy on SHD dataset - only 2.4% below the state of the art - while requiring over 10x and 67x fewer parameters. On SSC, our models achieve 66.9-71.0% accuracy. Compared to FPGA-based spiking neural networks, our quantised model reaches 92.3% accuracy, outperforming them by up to 19.3% while reducing resource usage and latency. For SSC, we report the first hardware-accelerated evaluation. We further demonstrate the first end-to-end FPGA implementation of event-audio keyword spotting, combining graph convolutional layers with recurrent sequence modelling. The system achieves up to 95% word-end detection accuracy, with only 10.53 microsecond latency and 1.18 W power consumption, establishing a strong benchmark for energy-efficient event-driven KWS.	Under... Under revision in TRETS Journal
Graph neural network for colliding particles with an application to sea ice floe modeling	2026-02-18	Show This paper introduces a novel approach to sea ice modeling using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), utilizing the natural graph structure of sea ice, where nodes represent individual ice pieces, and edges model the physical interactions, including collisions. This concept is developed within a one-dimensional framework as a foundational step. Traditional numerical methods, while effective, are computationally intensive and less scalable. By utilizing GNNs, the proposed model, termed the Collision-captured Network (CN), integrates data assimilation (DA) techniques to effectively learn and predict sea ice dynamics under various conditions. The approach was validated using synthetic data, both with and without observed data points, and it was found that the model accelerates the simulation of trajectories without compromising accuracy. This advancement offers a more efficient tool for forecasting in marginal ice zones (MIZ) and highlights the potential of combining machine learning with data assimilation for more effective and efficient modeling.
Investigating GNN Convergence on Large Randomly Generated Graphs with Realistic Node Feature Correlations	2026-02-18	Show There are a number of existing studies analysing the convergence behaviour of graph neural networks on large random graphs. Unfortunately, the majority of these studies do not model correlations between node features, which would naturally exist in a variety of real-life networks. Consequently, the derived limitations of GNNs, resulting from such convergence behaviour, is not truly reflective of the expressive power of GNNs when applied to realistic graphs. In this paper, we will introduce a novel method to generate random graphs that have correlated node features. The node features will be sampled in such a manner to ensure correlation between neighbouring nodes. As motivation for our choice of sampling scheme, we will appeal to properties exhibited by real-life graphs, particularly properties that are captured by the Barabási-Albert model. A theoretical analysis will strongly indicate that convergence can be avoided in some cases, which we will empirically validate on large random graphs generated using our novel method. The observed divergent behaviour provides evidence that GNNs may be more expressive than initial studies would suggest, especially on realistic graphs.	8 pages, 1 figure
Federated Graph AGI for Cross-Border Insider Threat Intelligence in Government Financial Schemes	2026-02-18	Show Cross-border insider threats pose a critical challenge to government financial schemes, particularly when dealing with distributed, privacy-sensitive data across multiple jurisdictions. Existing approaches face fundamental limitations: they cannot effectively share intelligence across borders due to privacy constraints, lack reasoning capabilities to understand complex multi-step attack patterns, and fail to capture intricate graph-structured relationships in financial networks. We introduce FedGraph-AGI, a novel federated learning framework integrating Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) reasoning with graph neural networks for privacy-preserving cross-border insider threat detection. Our approach combines: (1) federated graph neural networks preserving data sovereignty; (2) Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) aggregation for heterogeneous jurisdictions; and (3) AGI-powered reasoning via Large Action Models (LAM) performing causal inference over graph data. Through experiments on a 50,000-transaction dataset across 10 jurisdictions, FedGraph-AGI achieves 92.3% accuracy, significantly outperforming federated baselines (86.1%) and centralized approaches (84.7%). Our ablation studies reveal AGI reasoning contributes 6.8% improvement, while MoE adds 4.4%. The system maintains epsilon = 1.0 differential privacy while achieving near-optimal performance and scales efficiently to 50+ clients. This represents the first integration of AGI reasoning with federated graph learning for insider threat detection, opening new directions for privacy-preserving cross-border intelligence sharing.	35 Pages, 8 figures
MolCrystalFlow: Molecular Crystal Structure Prediction via Flow Matching	2026-02-17	Show Molecular crystal structure prediction represents a grand challenge in computational chemistry due to large sizes of constituent molecules and complex intra- and intermolecular interactions. While generative modeling has revolutionized structure discovery for molecules, inorganic solids, and metal-organic frameworks, extending such approaches to fully periodic molecular crystals is still elusive. Here, we present MolCrystalFlow, a flow-based generative model for molecular crystal structure prediction. The framework disentangles intramolecular complexity from intermolecular packing by embedding molecules as rigid bodies and jointly learning the lattice matrix, molecular orientations, and centroid positions. Centroids and orientations are represented on their native Riemannian manifolds, allowing geodesic flow construction and graph neural network operations that respects geometric symmetries. We benchmark our model against state-of-the-art generative models for large-size periodic crystals and rule-based structure generation methods on two open-source molecular crystal datasets. We demonstrate an integration of MolCrystalFlow model with universal machine learning potential to accelerate molecular crystal structure prediction, paving the way for data-driven generative discovery of molecular crystals.	20 pages, 4 figures
Edge-Local and Qubit-Efficient Quantum Graph Learning for the NISQ Era	2026-02-17	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a powerful framework for learning representations from graph-structured data, but their direct implementation on near-term quantum hardware remains challenging due to circuit depth, multi-qubit interactions, and qubit scalability constraints. In this work, we introduce a fully quantum graph convolutional architecture designed explicitly for unsupervised learning in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) regime. Our approach combines a variational quantum feature extraction layer with an edge-local and qubit-efficient quantum message-passing mechanism inspired by the Quantum Alternating Operator Ansatz (QAOA) framework. Unlike prior models that rely on global operations or multi-controlled unitaries, our model decomposes message passing into pairwise interactions along graph edges using only hardware-native single- and two-qubit gates. This design reduces the qubit requirement from $O(Nn)$ to $O(n)$ for a graph with $N$ nodes and $n$-qubit feature registers, enabling implementation on current quantum devices regardless of graph size. We train the model using the Deep Graph Infomax objective to perform unsupervised node representation learning. Experiments on the Cora citation network and a large-scale genomic SNP dataset demonstrate that our model remains competitive with prior quantum and hybrid approaches.
Non-Intrusive Graph-Based Bot Detection for E-Commerce Using Inductive Graph Neural Networks	2026-02-17	Show Malicious bots pose a growing threat to e-commerce platforms by scraping data, hoarding inventory, and perpetrating fraud. Traditional bot mitigation techniques, including IP blacklists and CAPTCHA-based challenges, are increasingly ineffective or intrusive, as modern bots leverage proxies, botnets, and AI-assisted evasion strategies. This work proposes a non-intrusive graph-based bot detection framework for e-commerce that models user session behavior through a graph representation and applies an inductive graph neural network for classification. The approach captures both relational structure and behavioral semantics, enabling accurate identification of subtle automated activity that evades feature-based methods. Experiments on real-world e-commerce traffic demonstrate that the proposed inductive graph model outperforms a strong session-level multilayer perceptron baseline in terms of AUC and F1 score. Additional adversarial perturbation and cold-start simulations show that the model remains robust under moderate graph modifications and generalizes effectively to previously unseen sessions and URLs. The proposed framework is deployment-friendly, integrates with existing systems without client-side instrumentation, and supports real-time inference and incremental updates, making it suitable for practical e-commerce security deployments.
GenDA: Generative Data Assimilation on Complex Urban Areas via Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance	2026-02-17	Show Urban wind flow reconstruction is essential for assessing air quality, heat dispersion, and pedestrian comfort, yet remains challenging when only sparse sensor data are available. We propose GenDA, a generative data assimilation framework that reconstructs high-resolution wind fields on unstructured meshes from limited observations. The model employs a multiscale graph-based diffusion architecture trained on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and interprets classifier-free guidance as a learned posterior reconstruction mechanism: the unconditional branch learns a geometry-aware flow prior, while the sensor-conditioned branch injects observational constraints during sampling. This formulation enables obstacle-aware reconstruction and generalization across unseen geometries, wind directions, and mesh resolutions without retraining. We consider both sparse fixed sensors and trajectory-based observations using the same reconstruction procedure. When evaluated against supervised graph neural network (GNN) baselines and classical reduced-order data assimilation methods, GenDA reduces the relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE) by 25-57% and increases the structural similarity index (SSIM) by 23-33% across the tested meshes. Experiments are conducted on Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations of a real urban neighbourhood in Bristol, United Kingdom, at a characteristic Reynolds number of $\mathrm{Re}\approx2\times10^{7}$, featuring complex building geometry and irregular terrain. The proposed framework provides a scalable path toward generative, geometry-aware data assimilation for environmental monitoring in complex domains.
A Code Smell Refactoring Approach using GNNs	2026-02-17	Show Code smell is a great challenge in software refactoring, which indicates latent design or implementation flaws that may degrade the software maintainability and evolution. Over the past decades, a variety of refactoring approaches have been proposed, which can be broadly classified into metrics-based, rule-based, and machine learning-based approaches. Recent years, deep learning-based approaches have also attracted widespread attention. However, existing techniques exhibit various limitations. Metrics- and rule-based approaches rely heavily on manually defined heuristics and thresholds, whereas deep learning-based approaches are often constrained by dataset availability and model design. In this study, we proposed a graph-based deep learning approach for code smell refactoring. Specifically, we designed two types of input graphs (class-level and method-level) and employed both graph classification and node classification tasks to address the refactoring of three representative code smells: long method, large class, and feature envy. In our experiment, we propose a semi-automated dataset generation approach that could generate a large-scale dataset with minimal manual effort. We implemented the proposed approach with three classical GNN (graph neural network) architectures: GCN, GraphSAGE, and GAT, and evaluated its performance against both traditional and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. The results demonstrate that proposed approach achieves superior refactoring performance.
Beyond ReLU: Bifurcation, Oversmoothing, and Topological Priors	2026-02-17	Show Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) learn node representations through iterative network-based message-passing. While powerful, deep GNNs suffer from oversmoothing, where node features converge to a homogeneous, non-informative state. We re-frame this problem of representational collapse from a \emph{bifurcation theory} perspective, characterizing oversmoothing as convergence to a stable ``homogeneous fixed point.'' Our central contribution is the theoretical discovery that this undesired stability can be broken by replacing standard monotone activations (e.g., ReLU) with a class of functions. Using Lyapunov-Schmidt reduction, we analytically prove that this substitution induces a bifurcation that destabilizes the homogeneous state and creates a new pair of stable, non-homogeneous \emph{patterns} that provably resist oversmoothing. Our theory predicts a precise, nontrivial scaling law for the amplitude of these emergent patterns, which we quantitatively validate in experiments. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of our theory by deriving a closed-form, bifurcation-aware initialization and showing its utility in real benchmark experiments.
On the Geometric Coherence of Global Aggregation in Federated GNN	2026-02-17	Show Federated Learning (FL) enables distributed training across multiple clients without centralized data sharing, while Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) model relational data through message passing. In federated GNN settings, client graphs often exhibit heterogeneous structural and propagation characteristics. When standard aggregation mechanisms are applied to such heterogeneous updates, the global model may converge numerically while exhibiting degraded relational behavior.Our work identifies a geometric failure mode of global aggregation in Cross- Domain Federated GNNs. Although GNN parameters are numerically represented as vectors, they encode relational transformations that govern the direction, strength, and sensitivity of information flow across graph neighborhoods. Aggregating updates originating from incompatible propagation regimes can therefore introduce destructive interference in this transformation space.This leads to loss of coherence in global message passing. Importantly, this degradation is not necessarily reflected in conventional metrics such as loss or accuracy.To address this issue, we propose GGRS (Global Geometric Reference Structure), a server-side framework that regulates client updates prior to aggregation based on geometric admissibility criteria. GGRS preserves directional consistency of relational transformations as well as maintains diversity of admissible propagation subspaces. It also stabilizes sensitivity to neighborhood interactions, without accessing client data or graph topology. Experiments on heterogeneous GNN-native, Amazon Co-purchase datasets demonstrate that GGRS preserves global message-passing coherence across training rounds by highlighting the necessity of geometry-aware regulation in federated graph learning.	This ... This is a developing preprint of an 18-page journal manuscript (6 figures), currently being prepared for formal peer-review submission
NeuroLifting: Neural Inference on Markov Random Fields at Scale	2026-02-17	Show Inference in large-scale Markov Random Fields (MRFs) is a critical yet challenging task, traditionally approached through approximate methods like belief propagation and mean field, or exact methods such as the Toulbar2 solver. These strategies often fail to strike an optimal balance between efficiency and solution quality, particularly as the problem scale increases. This paper introduces NeuroLifting, a novel technique that leverages Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to reparameterize decision variables in MRFs, facilitating the use of standard gradient descent optimization. By extending traditional lifting techniques into a non-parametric neural network framework, NeuroLifting benefits from the smooth loss landscape of neural networks, enabling efficient and parallelizable optimization. Empirical results demonstrate that, on moderate scales, NeuroLifting performs very close to the exact solver Toulbar2 in terms of solution quality, significantly surpassing existing approximate methods. Notably, on large-scale MRFs, NeuroLifting delivers superior solution quality against all baselines, as well as exhibiting linear computational complexity growth. This work presents a significant advancement in MRF inference, offering a scalable and effective solution for large-scale problems.
Size Transferability of Graph Transformers with Convolutional Positional Encodings	2026-02-16	Show Transformers have achieved remarkable success across domains, motivating the rise of Graph Transformers (GTs) as attention-based architectures for graph-structured data. A key design choice in GTs is the use of Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based positional encodings to incorporate structural information. In this work, we study GTs through the lens of manifold limit models for graph sequences and establish a theoretical connection between GTs with GNN positional encodings and Manifold Neural Networks (MNNs). Building on transferability results for GNNs under manifold convergence, we show that GTs inherit transferability guarantees from their positional encodings. In particular, GTs trained on small graphs provably generalize to larger graphs under mild assumptions. We complement our theory with extensive experiments on standard graph benchmarks, demonstrating that GTs exhibit scalable behavior on par with GNNs. To further show the efficiency in a real-world scenario, we implement GTs for shortest path distance estimation over terrains to better illustrate the efficiency of the transferable GTs. Our results provide new insights into the understanding of GTs and suggest practical directions for efficient training of GTs in large-scale settings.
Grappa: Gradient-Only Communication for Scalable Graph Neural Network Training	2026-02-16	Show Cross-partition edges dominate the cost of distributed GNN training: fetching remote features and activations per iteration overwhelms the network as graphs deepen and partition counts grow. Grappa is a distributed GNN training framework that enforces gradient-only communication: during each iteration, partitions train in isolation and exchange only gradients for the global update. To recover accuracy lost to isolation, Grappa (i) periodically repartitions to expose new neighborhoods and (ii) applies a lightweight coverage-corrected gradient aggregation inspired by importance sampling. We present an asymptotically unbiased estimator for gradient correction, which we use to develop a minimum-distance batch-level variant that is compatible with common deep-learning packages. We also introduce a shrinkage version that improves stability in practice. Empirical results on real and synthetic graphs show that Grappa trains GNNs 4x faster on average (up to 13x) than state-of-the-art systems, achieves better accuracy especially for deeper models, and sustains training at the trillion-edge scale on commodity hardware. Grappa is model-agnostic, supports full-graph and mini-batch training, and does not rely on high-bandwidth interconnects or caching.
iQUEST: An Iterative Question-Guided Framework for Knowledge Base Question Answering	2026-02-16	Show Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in many natural language processing tasks but often exhibit factual inconsistencies in knowledge-intensive settings. Integrating external knowledge resources, particularly knowledge graphs (KGs), provides a transparent and updatable foundation for more reliable reasoning. Knowledge Base Question Answering (KBQA), which queries and reasons over KGs, is central to this effort, especially for complex, multi-hop queries. However, multi-hop reasoning poses two key challenges: (1)~maintaining coherent reasoning paths, and (2)~avoiding prematurely discarding critical multi-hop connections. To tackle these challenges, we introduce iQUEST, a question-guided KBQA framework that iteratively decomposes complex queries into simpler sub-questions, ensuring a structured and focused reasoning trajectory. Additionally, we integrate a Graph Neural Network (GNN) to look ahead and incorporate 2-hop neighbor information at each reasoning step. This dual approach strengthens the reasoning process, enabling the model to explore viable paths more effectively. Detailed experiments demonstrate the consistent improvement delivered by iQUEST across four benchmark datasets and four LLMs. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Wangshuaiia/iQUEST.	Accep... Accepted to the 63rd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL 2025), Main Track
Learning Structural Hardness for Combinatorial Auctions: Instance-Dependent Algorithm Selection via Graph Neural Networks	2026-02-16	Show The Winner Determination Problem (WDP) in combinatorial auctions is NP-hard, and no existing method reliably predicts which instances will defeat fast greedy heuristics. The ML-for-combinatorial-optimization community has focused on learning to \emph{replace} solvers, yet recent evidence shows that graph neural networks (GNNs) rarely outperform well-tuned classical methods on standard benchmarks. We pursue a different objective: learning to predict \emph{when} a given instance is hard for greedy allocation, enabling instance-dependent algorithm selection. We design a 20-dimensional structural feature vector and train a lightweight MLP hardness classifier that predicts the greedy optimality gap with mean absolute error 0.033, Pearson correlation 0.937, and binary classification accuracy 94.7% across three random seeds. For instances identified as hard -- those exhibiting ``whale-fish'' trap structure where greedy provably fails -- we deploy a heterogeneous GNN specialist that achieves ${\approx}0%$ optimality gap on all six adversarial configurations tested (vs.\ 3.75--59.24% for greedy). A hybrid allocator combining the hardness classifier with GNN and greedy solvers achieves 0.51% overall gap on mixed distributions. Our honest evaluation on CATS benchmarks confirms that GNNs do not outperform Gurobi (0.45--0.71 vs.\ 0.20 gap), motivating the algorithm selection framing. Learning \emph{when} to deploy expensive solvers is more tractable than learning to replace them.
Bayesian Cosmic Void Finding with Graph Flows	2026-02-16	Show Cosmic voids contain higher-order cosmological information and are of interest for astroparticle physics. Finding genuine matter underdensities in sparse galaxy surveys is, however, an underconstrained problem. Traditional void finding algorithms produce deterministic void catalogs, neglecting the probabilistic nature of the problem. We present a method to sample from the stochastic mapping from galaxy catalogs to arbitrary void definitions. Our algorithm uses a deep graph neural network to evolve "test particles" according to a flow-matching objective. We demonstrate the method in a simplified example setting but outline steps to generalize it towards practically usable void finders. Trained on a deterministic teacher, the model performs well but has considerable stochasticity which we interpret as regularization. Cosmological information in the predicted void catalogs outperforms the teacher. On the one hand, our method can cheaply emulate existing void finders with apparently useful regularization. More importantly, it also allows us to find the Bayes-optimal mapping between observed galaxies and any void definition. This includes definitions operating at the level of simulated matter density and velocity fields.	8+3 p... 8+3 pages, 9+2 figures. Comments welcome!
DCTracks: An Open Dataset for Machine Learning-Based Drift Chamber Track Reconstruction	2026-02-16	Show We introduce a Monte Carlo (MC) dataset of single- and two-track drift chamber events to advance Machine Learning (ML)-based track reconstruction. To enable standardized and comparable evaluation, we define track reconstruction specific metrics and report results for traditional track reconstruction algorithms and a Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) method, facilitating rigorous, reproducible validation for future research.
Heuristic Methods are Good Teachers to Distill MLPs for Graph Link Prediction	2026-02-15	Show Link prediction is a crucial graph-learning task with applications including citation prediction and product recommendation. Distilling Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) teachers into Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) students has emerged as an effective approach to achieve strong performance and reducing computational cost by removing graph dependency. However, existing distillation methods only use standard GNNs and overlook alternative teachers such as specialized model for link prediction (GNN4LP) and heuristic methods (e.g., common neighbors). This paper first explores the impact of different teachers in GNN-to-MLP distillation. Surprisingly, we find that stronger teachers do not always produce stronger students: MLPs distilled from GNN4LP can underperform those distilled from simpler GNNs, while weaker heuristic methods can teach MLPs to near-GNN performance with drastically reduced training costs. Building on these insights, we propose Ensemble Heuristic-Distilled MLPs (EHDM), which eliminates graph dependencies while effectively integrating complementary signals via a gating mechanism. Experiments on ten datasets show an average 7.93% improvement over previous GNN-to-MLP approaches with 1.95-3.32 times less training time, indicating EHDM is an efficient and effective link prediction method. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZongyueQin/EHDM
Whom to Query for What: Adaptive Group Elicitation via Multi-Turn LLM Interactions	2026-02-15	Show Eliciting information to reduce uncertainty about latent group-level properties from surveys and other collective assessments requires allocating limited questioning effort under real costs and missing data. Although large language models enable adaptive, multi-turn interactions in natural language, most existing elicitation methods optimize what to ask with a fixed respondent pool, and do not adapt respondent selection or leverage population structure when responses are partial or incomplete. To address this gap, we study adaptive group elicitation, a multi-round setting where an agent adaptively selects both questions and respondents under explicit query and participation budgets. We propose a theoretically grounded framework that combines (i) an LLM-based expected information gain objective for scoring candidate questions with (ii) heterogeneous graph neural network propagation that aggregates observed responses and participant attributes to impute missing responses and guide per-round respondent selection. This closed-loop procedure queries a small, informative subset of individuals while inferring population-level responses via structured similarity. Across three real-world opinion datasets, our method consistently improves population-level response prediction under constrained budgets, including a >12% relative gain on CES at a 10% respondent budget.
A Hybrid TGN-SEAL Model for Dynamic Graph Link Prediction	2026-02-15	Show Predicting links in sparse, continuously evolving networks is a central challenge in network science. Conventional heuristic methods and deep learning models, including Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), are typically designed for static graphs and thus struggle to capture temporal dependencies. Snapshot-based techniques partially address this issue but often encounter data sparsity and class imbalance, particularly in networks with transient interactions such as telecommunication call detail records (CDRs). Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs) model dynamic graphs by updating node embeddings over time; however, their predictive accuracy under sparse conditions remains limited. In this study, we improve the TGN framework by extracting enclosing subgraphs around candidate links, enabling the model to jointly learn structural and temporal information. Experiments on a sparse CDR dataset show that our approach increases average precision by 2.6% over standard TGNs, demonstrating the advantages of integrating local topology for robust link prediction in dynamic networks.
Generation of Uncertainty-Aware High-Level Spatial Concepts in Factorized 3D Scene Graphs via Graph Neural Networks	2026-02-15	Show Enabling robots to autonomously discover high-level spatial concepts (e.g., rooms and walls) from primitive geometric observations (e.g., planar surfaces) within 3D Scene Graphs is essential for robust indoor navigation and mapping. These graphs provide a hierarchical metric-semantic representation in which such concepts are organized. To further enhance graph-SLAM performance, Factorized 3D Scene Graphs incorporate these concepts as optimization factors that constrain relative geometry and enforce global consistency. However, both stages of this process remain largely manual: concepts are typically derived using hand-crafted, concept-specific heuristics, while factors and their covariances are likewise manually designed. This reliance on manual specification limits generalization across diverse environments and scalability to new concept classes. This paper presents a novel learning-based method that infers spatial concepts online from observed vertical planes and introduces them as optimizable factors within a SLAM backend, eliminating the need to handcraft concept generation, factor design, and covariance specification. We evaluate our approach in simulated environments with complex layouts, improving room detection by 20.7% and trajectory estimation by 19.2%, and further validate it on real construction sites, where room detection improves by 5.3% and map matching accuracy by 3.8%. Results confirm that learned factors can improve their handcrafted counterparts in SLAM systems and serve as a foundation for extending this approach to new spatial concepts.	Submi... Submitted to IEEE Robotics and Automation Letters (RA-L)
GREPO: A Benchmark for Graph Neural Networks on Repository-Level Bug Localization	2026-02-14	Show Repository-level bug localization-the task of identifying where code must be modified to fix a bug-is a critical software engineering challenge. Standard Large Language Modles (LLMs) are often unsuitable for this task due to context window limitations that prevent them from processing entire code repositories. As a result, various retrieval methods are commonly used, including keyword matching, text similarity, and simple graph-based heuristics such as Breadth-First Search. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) offer a promising alternative due to their ability to model complex, repository-wide dependencies; however, their application has been hindered by the lack of a dedicated benchmark. To address this gap, we introduce GREPO, the first GNN benchmark for repository-scale bug localization tasks. GREPO comprises 86 Python repositories and 47294 bug-fixing tasks, providing graph-based data structures ready for direct GNN processing. Our evaluation of various GNN architectures shows outstanding performance compared to established information retrieval baselines. This work highlights the potential of GNNs for bug localization and established GREPO as a foundation resource for future research, The code is available at https://github.com/qingpingmo/GREPO.	46 pages, 14figures
GraphFM: A generalist graph transformer that learns transferable representations across diverse domains	2026-02-14	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) are often trained on individual datasets, requiring specialized models and significant hyperparameter tuning due to the unique structures and features of each dataset. This approach limits the scalability and generalizability of GNNs, as models must be tailored for each specific graph type. To address these challenges, we introduce GraphFM, a scalable multi-graph pretraining approach designed for learning across diverse graph datasets. GraphFM uses a Perceiver-based encoder with learned latent tokens to compress domain-specific features into a shared latent space, enabling generalization across graph domains. We propose new techniques for scaling up graph training on datasets of different sizes, allowing us to train GraphFM on 152 distinct graph datasets, containing a total of 7.4 million nodes and 189 million edges. This allows us to study the effect of scale on pretraining across domains such as molecules, citation networks, and product graphs, and show that training on diverse datasets improves performance over single-source pretraining. Additionally, pretraining with a mixture of synthetic and real graphs enhances adaptability and stability, leading to competitive performance with state-of-the-art models across various node classification tasks. This approach reduces the burden of dataset-specific training and provides a single generalist model capable of performing across multiple diverse graph structures and tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/nerdslab/GraphFM.
Graph Neural Networks for Interferometer Simulations	2026-02-14	Show In recent years, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown tremendous promise in solving problems in high energy physics, materials science, and fluid dynamics. In this work, we introduce a new application for GNNs in the physical sciences: instrumentation design. As a case study, we apply GNNs to simulate models of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) and show that they are capable of accurately capturing the complex optical physics at play, while achieving runtimes 815 times faster than state of the art simulation packages. We discuss the unique challenges this problem provides for machine learning models. In addition, we provide a dataset of high-fidelity optical physics simulations for three interferometer topologies, which can be used as a benchmarking suite for future work in this direction.	11 pa... 11 pages, 4 figures, Accepted and Presented to the 39th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2025): AI for Science Workshop
Optimization-Free Graph Embedding via Distributional Kernel for Community Detection	2026-02-14	Show Neighborhood Aggregation Strategy (NAS) is a widely used approach in graph embedding, underpinning both Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Weisfeiler-Lehman (WL) methods. However, NAS-based methods are identified to be prone to over-smoothing-the loss of node distinguishability with increased iterations-thereby limiting their effectiveness. This paper identifies two characteristics in a network, i.e., the distributions of nodes and node degrees that are critical for expressive representation but have been overlooked in existing methods. We show that these overlooked characteristics contribute significantly to over-smoothing of NAS-methods. To address this, we propose a novel weighted distribution-aware kernel that embeds nodes while taking their distributional characteristics into consideration. Our method has three distinguishing features: (1) it is the first method to explicitly incorporate both distributional characteristics; (2) it requires no optimization; and (3) it effectively mitigates the adverse effects of over-smoothing, allowing WL to preserve node distinguishability and expressiveness even after many iterations of embedding. Experiments demonstrate that our method achieves superior community detection performance via spectral clustering, outperforming existing graph embedding methods, including deep learning methods, on standard benchmarks.
Learning to Approximate Uniform Facility Location via Graph Neural Networks	2026-02-13	Show There has been a growing interest in using neural networks, especially message-passing neural networks (MPNNs), to solve hard combinatorial optimization problems heuristically. However, existing learning-based approaches for hard combinatorial optimization tasks often rely on supervised training data, reinforcement learning, or gradient estimators, leading to significant computational overhead, unstable training, or a lack of provable performance guarantees. In contrast, classical approximation algorithms offer such performance guarantees under worst-case inputs but are non-differentiable and unable to adaptively exploit structural regularities in natural input distributions. We address this dichotomy with the fundamental example of Uniform Facility Location (UniFL), a variant of the combinatorial facility location problem with applications in clustering, data summarization, logistics, and supply chain design. We develop a fully differentiable MPNN model that embeds approximation-algorithmic principles while avoiding the need for solver supervision or discrete relaxations. Our approach admits provable approximation and size generalization guarantees to much larger instances than seen during training. Empirically, we show that our approach outperforms standard non-learned approximation algorithms in terms of solution quality, closing the gap with computationally intensive integer linear programming approaches. Overall, this work provides a step toward bridging learning-based methods and approximation algorithms for discrete optimization.
FlashSchNet: Fast and Accurate Coarse-Grained Neural Network Molecular Dynamics	2026-02-13	Show Graph neural network (GNN) potentials such as SchNet improve the accuracy and transferability of molecular dynamics (MD) simulation by learning many-body interactions, but remain slower than classical force fields due to fragmented kernels and memory-bound pipelines that underutilize GPUs. We show that a missing principle is making GNN-MD IO-aware, carefully accounting for reads and writes between GPU high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and on-chip SRAM. We present FlashSchNet, an efficient and accurate IO-aware SchNet-style GNN-MD framework built on four techniques: (1) flash radial basis, which fuses pairwise distance computation, Gaussian basis expansion, and cosine envelope into a single tiled pass, computing each distance once and reusing it across all basis functions; (2) flash message passing, which fuses cutoff, neighbor gather, filter multiplication, and reduction to avoid materializing edge tensors in HBM; (3) flash aggregation, which reformulates scatter-add via CSR segment reduce, reducing atomic writes by a factor of feature dimension and enabling contention-free accumulation in both forward and backward passes; (4) channel-wise 16-bit quantization that exploits the low per-channel dynamic range in SchNet MLP weights to further improve throughput with negligible accuracy loss. On a single NVIDIA RTX PRO 6000, FlashSchNet achieves 1000 ns/day aggregate simulation throughput over 64 parallel replicas on coarse-grained (CG) protein containing 269 beads (6.5x faster than CGSchNet baseline with 80% reduction of peak memory), surpassing classical force fields (e.g. MARTINI) while retaining SchNet-level accuracy and transferability.	Code ... Code is at https://github.com/UNITES-Lab/flash-molecular-dynamics
Which Algorithms Can Graph Neural Networks Learn?	2026-02-13	Show In recent years, there has been growing interest in understanding neural architectures' ability to learn to execute discrete algorithms, a line of work often referred to as neural algorithmic reasoning. The goal is to integrate algorithmic reasoning capabilities into larger neural pipelines. Many such architectures are based on (message-passing) graph neural networks (MPNNs), owing to their permutation equivariance and ability to deal with sparsity and variable-sized inputs. However, existing work is either largely empirical and lacks formal guarantees or it focuses solely on expressivity, leaving open the question of when and how such architectures generalize beyond a finite training set. In this work, we propose a general theoretical framework that characterizes the sufficient conditions under which MPNNs can learn an algorithm from a training set of small instances and provably approximate its behavior on inputs of arbitrary size. Our framework applies to a broad class of algorithms, including single-source shortest paths, minimum spanning trees, and general dynamic programming problems, such as the $0$-$1$ knapsack problem. In addition, we establish impossibility results for a wide range of algorithmic tasks, showing that standard MPNNs cannot learn them, and we derive more expressive MPNN-like architectures that overcome these limitations. Finally, we refine our analysis for the Bellman-Ford algorithm, yielding a substantially smaller required training set and significantly extending the recent work of Nerem et al. [2025] by allowing for a differentiable regularization loss. Empirical results largely support our theoretical findings.
SaVe-TAG: LLM-based Interpolation for Long-Tailed Text-Attributed Graphs	2026-02-13	Show Real-world graph data often follows long-tailed distributions, making it difficult for Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to generalize well across both head and tail classes. Recent advances in Vicinal Risk Minimization (VRM) have shown promise in mitigating class imbalance with numeric interpolation; however, existing approaches largely rely on embedding-space arithmetic, which fails to capture the rich semantics inherent in text-attributed graphs. In this work, we propose our method, SaVe-TAG (Semantic-aware Vicinal Risk Minimization for Long-Tailed Text-Attributed Graphs), a novel VRM framework that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform text-level interpolation, generating on-manifold, boundary-enriching synthetic samples for minority classes. To mitigate the risk of noisy generation, we introduce a confidence-based edge assignment mechanism that uses graph topology as a natural filter to ensure structural consistency. We provide theoretical justification for our method and conduct extensive experiments on benchmark datasets, showing that our approach consistently outperforms both numeric interpolation and prior long-tailed node classification baselines. Our results highlight the importance of integrating semantic and structural signals for balanced and effective learning on text-attributed graphs. The source code is publicly available at: https://github.com/LWang-Laura/SaVe-TAG.	Accep... Accepted KDD 2026 Research Track Paper
Coden: Efficient Temporal Graph Neural Networks for Continuous Prediction	2026-02-13	Show Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) are pivotal in processing dynamic graphs. However, existing TGNNs primarily target one-time predictions for a given temporal span, whereas many practical applications require continuous predictions, that predictions are issued frequently over time. Directly adapting existing TGNNs to continuous-prediction scenarios introduces either significant computational overhead or prediction quality issues especially for large graphs. This paper revisits the challenge of { continuous predictions} in TGNNs, and introduces {\sc Coden}, a TGNN model designed for efficient and effective learning on dynamic graphs. {\sc Coden} innovatively overcomes the key complexity bottleneck in existing TGNNs while preserving comparable predictive accuracy. Moreover, we further provide theoretical analyses that substantiate the effectiveness and efficiency of {\sc Coden}, and clarify its duality relationship with both RNN-based and attention-based models. Our evaluations across five dynamic datasets show that {\sc Coden} surpasses existing performance benchmarks in both efficiency and effectiveness, establishing it as a superior solution for continuous prediction in evolving graph environments.
Spatio-Temporal driven Attention Graph Neural Network with Block Adjacency matrix (STAG-NN-BA) for Remote Land-use Change Detection	2026-02-13	Show Land-use monitoring is fundamental for spatial planning, particularly in view of compound impacts of growing global populations and climate change. Despite existing applications of deep learning in land use monitoring, standard convolutional kernels in deep neural networks limit the applications of these networks to the Euclidean domain only. Considering the geodesic nature of the measurement of the earth's surface, remote sensing is one such area that can benefit from non-Euclidean and spherical domains. For this purpose, we designed a novel Graph Neural Network architecture for spatial and spatio-temporal classification using satellite imagery to acquire insights into socio-economic indicators. We propose a hybrid attention method to learn the relative importance of irregular neighbors in remote sensing data. Instead of classifying each pixel, we propose a method based on Simple Linear Iterative Clustering (SLIC) image segmentation and Graph Attention Network. The superpixels obtained from SLIC become the nodes of our Graph Convolution Network (GCN). A region adjacency graph (RAG) is then constructed where each superpixel is connected to every other adjacent superpixel in the image, enabling information to propagate globally. Finally, we propose a Spatially driven Attention Graph Neural Network (SAG-NN) to classify each RAG. We also propose an extension to our SAG-NN for spatio-temporal data. Unlike regular grids of pixels in images, superpixels are irregular in nature and cannot be used to create spatio-temporal graphs. We introduce temporal bias by combining unconnected RAGs from each image into one supergraph. This is achieved by introducing block adjacency matrices resulting in novel Spatio-Temporal driven Attention Graph Neural Network with Block Adjacency matrix (STAG-NN-BA). SAG-NN and STAG-NN-BA outperform graph and non-graph baselines on Asia14 and C2D2 datasets efficiently.
RLMiner: Finding the Most Frequent k-sized Subgraph via Reinforcement Learning	2026-02-13	Show Identifying the most frequent induced subgraph of size $k$ in a target graph is a fundamental graph mining problem with direct implications for Web-related data mining and social network analysis. Despite its importance, finding the most frequent induced subgraph remains computationally expensive due to the NP-hard nature of the subgraph counting task. Traditional exact enumeration algorithms often suffer from high time complexity, especially for a large graph size $k$. To mitigate this, existing approaches often utilize frequency measurement with the Downward Closure Property to reduce the search space, imposing additional constraints on the task. In this paper, we first formulate this task as a Markov Decision Process and approach it using a multi-task reinforcement learning framework. Specifically, we introduce RLMiner, a novel framework that integrates reinforcement learning with our proposed task-state-aware Graph Neural Network to find the most frequent induced subgraph of size $k$ with a time complexity linear to $k$. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed RLMiner effectively identifies subgraphs with frequencies closely matching the ground-truth most frequent induced subgraphs, while achieving significantly shorter and more stable running times compared to traditional methods.
VDW-GNNs: Vector diffusion wavelets for geometric graph neural networks	2026-02-12	Show We introduce vector diffusion wavelets (VDWs), a novel family of wavelets inspired by the vector diffusion maps algorithm that was introduced to analyze data lying in the tangent bundle of a Riemannian manifold. We show that these wavelets may be effectively incorporated into a family of geometric graph neural networks, which we refer to as VDW-GNNs. We demonstrate that such networks are effective on synthetic point cloud data, as well as on real-world data derived from wind-field measurements and neural activity data. Theoretically, we prove that these new wavelets have desirable frame theoretic properties, similar to traditional diffusion wavelets. Additionally, we prove that these wavelets have desirable symmetries with respect to rotations and translations.	A pre... A previous, shorter version of this work was presented in the workshop "New Perspectives in Advancing Graph Machine Learning" at NeurIPS 2025
ATLAS: Adaptive Topology-based Learning at Scale for Homophilic and Heterophilic Graphs	2026-02-12	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) excel on homophilic graphs where connected nodes share labels, but struggle with heterophilic graphs where edges do not imply similarity. Moreover, iterative message passing limits scalability due to neighborhood expansion overhead. We introduce ATLAS (Adaptive Topology-based Learning at Scale), a propagation-free framework that encodes graph structure through multi-resolution community features rather than message passing. We first prove that community refinement involves a fundamental trade-off: finer partitions increase label-community mutual information but also increase entropy. We formalize when refinement improves normalized mutual information, explaining why intermediate granularities are often most predictive. ATLAS employs modularity-guided adaptive search to automatically identify informative community scales, which are one-hot encoded, projected into learnable embeddings, and concatenated with node attributes for MLP classification. This enables standard mini-batch training and adjacency-free inference after one-time preprocessing. Across 13 benchmarks including million-node graphs, ATLAS achieves competitive or superior accuracy, up to 20-point gains over GCN on heterophilic datasets and 12-point gains over MLPs on homophilic graphs. By treating topology as explicit features, ATLAS adapts intelligently: leveraging structure when informative, remaining robust when weakly aligned, and avoiding propagation when structure misleads, providing both scalable performance and interpretable structural insights.	Preprint
Bayesian Neighborhood Adaptation for Graph Neural Networks	2026-02-12	Show The neighborhood scope (i.e., number of hops) where graph neural networks (GNNs) aggregate information to characterize a node's statistical property is critical to GNNs' performance. Two-stage approaches, training and validating GNNs for every pre-specified neighborhood scope to search for the best setting, is a time-consuming task and tends to be biased due to the search space design. How to adaptively determine proper neighborhood scopes for the aggregation process for both homophilic and heterophilic graphs remains largely unexplored. We thus propose to model the GNNs' message-passing behavior on a graph as a stochastic process by treating the number of hops as a beta process. This Bayesian framework allows us to infer the most plausible neighborhood scope for message aggregation simultaneously with the optimization of GNN parameters. Our theoretical analysis shows that the scope inference improves the expressivity of a GNN. Experiments on benchmark homophilic and heterophilic datasets show that the proposed method is compatible with state-of-the-art GNN variants, achieving competitive or superior performance on the node classification task, and providing well-calibrated predictions. Implementation is available at : https://github.com/paribeshregmi/BNA-GNN	Publi... Published in Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR), 07/2025
Community Concealment from Unsupervised Graph Learning-Based Clustering	2026-02-12	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) are designed to use attributed graphs to learn representations. Such representations are beneficial in the unsupervised learning of clusters and community detection. Nonetheless, such inference may reveal sensitive groups, clustered systems, or collective behaviors, raising concerns regarding group-level privacy. Community attribution in social and critical infrastructure networks, for example, can expose coordinated asset groups, operational hierarchies, and system dependencies that could be used for profiling or intelligence gathering. We study a defensive setting in which a data publisher (defender) seeks to conceal a community of interest while making limited, utility-aware changes in the network. Our analysis indicates that community concealment is strongly influenced by two quantifiable factors: connectivity at the community boundary and feature similarity between the protected community and adjacent communities. Informed by these findings, we present a perturbation strategy that rewires a set of selected edges and modifies node features to reduce the distinctiveness leveraged by GNN message passing. The proposed method outperforms DICE in our experiments on synthetic benchmarks and real network graphs under identical perturbation budgets. Overall, it achieves median relative concealment improvements of approximately 20-45% across the evaluated settings. These findings demonstrate a mitigation strategy against GNN-based community learning and highlight group-level privacy risks intrinsic to graph learning.
Towards Personalized Bangla Book Recommendation: A Large-Scale Multi-Entity Book Graph Dataset	2026-02-12	Show Personalized book recommendation in Bangla literature has been constrained by the lack of structured, large-scale, and publicly available datasets. This work introduces RokomariBG, a large-scale, multi-entity heterogeneous book graph dataset designed to support research on personalized recommendation in a low-resource language setting. The dataset comprises 127,302 books, 63,723 users, 16,601 authors, 1,515 categories, 2,757 publishers, and 209,602 reviews, connected through eight relation types and organized as a comprehensive knowledge graph. To demonstrate the utility of the dataset, we provide a systematic benchmarking study on the Top-N recommendation task, evaluating a diverse set of representative recommendation models, including classical collaborative filtering methods, matrix factorization models, content-based approaches, graph neural networks, a hybrid matrix factorization model with side information, and a neural two-tower retrieval architecture. The benchmarking results highlight the importance of leveraging multi-relational structure and textual side information, with neural retrieval models achieving the strongest performance (NDCG@10 = 0.204). Overall, this work establishes a foundational benchmark and a publicly available resource for Bangla book recommendation research, enabling reproducible evaluation and future studies on recommendation in low-resource cultural domains. The dataset and code are publicly available at https://github.com/backlashblitz/Bangla-Book-Recommendation-Dataset
Self-Adaptive Graph Mixture of Models	2026-02-12	Show Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as powerful tools for learning over graph-structured data, yet recent studies have shown that their performance gains are beginning to plateau. In many cases, well-established models such as GCN and GAT, when appropriately tuned, can match or even exceed the performance of more complex, state-of-the-art architectures. This trend highlights a key limitation in the current landscape: the difficulty of selecting the most suitable model for a given graph task or dataset. To address this, we propose Self-Adaptive Graph Mixture of Models (SAGMM), a modular and practical framework that learns to automatically select and combine the most appropriate GNN models from a diverse pool of architectures. Unlike prior mixture-of-experts approaches that rely on variations of a single base model, SAGMM leverages architectural diversity and a topology-aware attention gating mechanism to adaptively assign experts to each node based on the structure of the input graph. To improve efficiency, SAGMM includes a pruning mechanism that reduces the number of active experts during training and inference without compromising performance. We also explore a training-efficient variant in which expert models are pretrained and frozen, and only the gating and task-specific layers are trained. We evaluate SAGMM on 16 benchmark datasets covering node classification, graph classification, regression, and link prediction tasks, and demonstrate that it consistently outperforms or matches leading GNN baselines and prior mixture-based methods, offering a robust and adaptive solution for real-world graph learning.	Accep... Accepted by AAAI 2026
GP2F: Cross-Domain Graph Prompting with Adaptive Fusion of Pre-trained Graph Neural Networks	2026-02-12	Show Graph Prompt Learning (GPL) has recently emerged as a promising paradigm for downstream adaptation of pre-trained graph models, mitigating the misalignment between pre-training objectives and downstream tasks. Recently, the focus of GPL has shifted from in-domain to cross-domain scenarios, which is closer to the real world applications, where the pre-training source and downstream target often differ substantially in data distribution. However, why GPLs remain effective under such domain shifts is still unexplored. Empirically, we observe that representative GPL methods are competitive with two simple baselines in cross-domain settings: full fine-tuning (FT) and linear probing (LP), motivating us to explore a deeper understanding of the prompting mechanism. We provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that jointly leveraging these two complementary branches yields a smaller estimation error than using either branch alone, formally proving that cross-domain GPL benefits from the integration between pre-trained knowledge and task-specific adaptation. Based on this insight, we propose GP2F, a dual-branch GPL method that explicitly instantiates the two extremes: (1) a frozen branch that retains pre-trained knowledge, and (2) an adapted branch with lightweight adapters for task-specific adaptation. We then perform adaptive fusion under topology constraints via a contrastive loss and a topology-consistent loss. Extensive experiments on cross-domain few-shot node and graph classification demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods.	16 pages, 8 figures
TF-DWGNet: A Directed Weighted Graph Neural Network with Tensor Fusion for Multi-Omics Cancer Subtype Classification	2026-02-11	Show Integration and analysis of multi-omics data provide valuable insights for improving cancer subtype classification. However, such data are inherently heterogeneous, high-dimensional, and exhibit complex intra- and inter-modality dependencies. Graph neural networks (GNNs) offer a principled framework for modeling these structures, but existing approaches often rely on prior knowledge or predefined similarity networks that produce undirected or unweighted graphs and fail to capture task-specific directionality and interaction strength. Interpretability at both the modality and feature levels also remains limited. To address these challenges, we propose TF-DWGNet, a novel Graph Neural Network framework that combines tree-based Directed Weighted graph construction with Tensor Fusion for multiclass cancer subtype classification. TF-DWGNet introduces two key innovations: (i) a supervised tree-based strategy that constructs directed, weighted graphs tailored to each omics modality, and (ii) a tensor fusion mechanism that captures unimodal, bimodal, and trimodal interactions using low-rank decomposition for computational efficiency. Experiments on three real-world cancer datasets demonstrate that TF-DWGNet consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple metrics and statistical tests. In addition, the model provides biologically meaningful insights through modality-level contribution scores and ranked feature importance. These results highlight that TF-DWGNet is an effective and interpretable solution for multi-omics integration in cancer research.	9 pag... 9 pages, 4 figures, 4 tables
Beyond Model Base Retrieval: Weaving Knowledge to Master Fine-grained Neural Network Design	2026-02-11	Show Designing high-performance neural networks for new tasks requires balancing optimization quality with search efficiency. Current methods fail to achieve this balance: neural architectural search is computationally expensive, while model retrieval often yields suboptimal static checkpoints. To resolve this dilemma, we model the performance gains induced by fine-grained architectural modifications as edit-effect evidence and build evidence graphs from prior tasks. By constructing a retrieval-augmented model refinement framework, our proposed M-DESIGN dynamically weaves historical evidence to discover near-optimal modification paths. M-DESIGN features an adaptive retrieval mechanism that quickly calibrates the evolving transferability of edit-effect evidence from different sources. To handle out-of-distribution shifts, we introduce predictive task planners that extrapolate gains from multi-hop evidence, thereby reducing reliance on an exhaustive repository. Based on our model knowledge base of 67,760 graph neural networks across 22 datasets, extensive experiments demonstrate that M-DESIGN consistently outperforms baselines, achieving the search-space best performance in 26 out of 33 cases under a strict budget.	Title... Title changed from "Beyond Model Base Selection: Weaving Knowledge to Master Fine-grained Neural Network Design" to "Beyond Model Base Retrieval: Weaving Knowledge to Master Fine-grained Neural Network Design"
MOTGNN: Interpretable Graph Neural Networks for Multi-Omics Disease Classification	2026-02-11	Show Integrating multi-omics data, such as DNA methylation, mRNA expression, and microRNA (miRNA) expression, offers a comprehensive view of the biological mechanisms underlying disease. However, the high dimensionality of multi-omics data, the heterogeneity across modalities, and the lack of reliable biological interaction networks make meaningful integration challenging. In addition, many existing models rely on handcrafted similarity graphs, are vulnerable to class imbalance, and often lack built-in interpretability, limiting their usefulness in biomedical applications. We propose Multi-Omics integration with Tree-generated Graph Neural Network (MOTGNN), a novel and interpretable framework for binary disease classification. MOTGNN employs eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) for omics-specific supervised graph construction, followed by modality-specific Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for hierarchical representation learning, and a deep feedforward network for cross-omics integration. Across three real-world disease datasets, MOTGNN outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by 5-10% in accuracy, ROC-AUC, and F1-score, and remains robust to severe class imbalance. The model maintains computational efficiency through the use of sparse graphs and provides built-in interpretability, revealing both top-ranked biomarkers and the relative contributions of each omics modality. These results highlight the potential of MOTGNN to improve both predictive accuracy and interpretability in multi-omics disease modeling.	11 pa... 11 pages, 6 figures, 7 tables
Proficient Graph Neural Network Design by Accumulating Knowledge on Large Language Models	2026-02-11	Show High-level automation is increasingly critical in AI, driven by rapid advances in large language models (LLMs) and AI agents. However, LLMs, despite their general reasoning power, struggle significantly in specialized, data-sensitive tasks such as designing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). This difficulty arises from (1) the inherent knowledge gaps in modeling the intricate, varying relationships between graph properties and suitable architectures and (2) the external noise from misleading descriptive inputs, often resulting in generic or even misleading model suggestions. Achieving proficiency in designing data-aware models -- defined as the meta-level capability to systematically accumulate, interpret, and apply data-specific design knowledge -- remains challenging for existing automated approaches, due to their inefficient construction and application of meta-knowledge. To achieve meta-level proficiency, we propose DesiGNN, a knowledge-centered framework that systematically converts past model design experience into structured, fine-grained knowledge priors well-suited for meta-learning with LLMs. To account for the inherent variability and external noise, DesiGNN aligns empirical property filtering from extensive benchmarks with adaptive elicitation of literature insights via LLMs. By constructing a solid meta-knowledge between unseen graph understanding and known effective architecture patterns, DesiGNN can deliver top-5.77% initial model proposals for unseen datasets within seconds and achieve consistently superior performance with minimal search cost compared to baselines.	Accep... Accepted at WSDM 2026. Title changed from "Computation-friendly graph neural network design by accumulating knowledge on large language models" to "Proficient Graph Neural Network Design by Accumulating Knowledge on Large Language Models"
MoToRec: Sparse-Regularized Multimodal Tokenization for Cold-Start Recommendation	2026-02-11	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) have revolutionized recommender systems by effectively modeling complex user-item interactions, yet data sparsity and the item cold-start problem significantly impair performance, particularly for new items with limited or no interaction history. While multimodal content offers a promising solution, existing methods result in suboptimal representations for new items due to noise and entanglement in sparse data. To address this, we transform multimodal recommendation into discrete semantic tokenization. We present Sparse-Regularized Multimodal Tokenization for Cold-Start Recommendation (MoToRec), a framework centered on a sparsely-regularized Residual Quantized Variational Autoencoder (RQ-VAE) that generates a compositional semantic code of discrete, interpretable tokens, promoting disentangled representations. MoToRec's architecture is enhanced by three synergistic components: (1) a sparsely-regularized RQ-VAE that promotes disentangled representations, (2) a novel adaptive rarity amplification that promotes prioritized learning for cold-start items, and (3) a hierarchical multi-source graph encoder for robust signal fusion with collaborative signals. Extensive experiments on three large-scale datasets demonstrate MoToRec's superiority over state-of-the-art methods in both overall and cold-start scenarios. Our work validates that discrete tokenization provides an effective and scalable alternative for mitigating the long-standing cold-start challenge.	Accep... Accepted to AAAI 2026 (Main Track)
RiemannGL: Riemannian Geometry Changes Graph Deep Learning	2026-02-11	Show Graphs are ubiquitous, and learning on graphs has become a cornerstone in artificial intelligence and data mining communities. Unlike pixel grids in images or sequential structures in language, graphs exhibit a typical non-Euclidean structure with complex interactions among the objects. This paper argues that Riemannian geometry provides a principled and necessary foundation for graph representation learning, and that Riemannian graph learning should be viewed as a unifying paradigm rather than a collection of isolated techniques. While recent studies have explored the integration of graph learning and Riemannian geometry, most existing approaches are limited to a narrow class of manifolds, particularly hyperbolic spaces, and often adopt extrinsic manifold formulations. We contend that the central mission of Riemannian graph learning is to endow graph neural networks with intrinsic manifold structures, which remains underexplored. To advance this perspective, we identify key conceptual and methodological gaps in existing approaches and outline a structured research agenda along three dimensions: manifold type, neural architecture, and learning paradigm. We further discuss open challenges, theoretical foundations, and promising directions that are critical for unlocking the full potential of Riemannian graph learning. This paper aims to provide a coherent viewpoint and to stimulate broader exploration of Riemannian geometry as a foundational framework for future graph learning research.	34 pa... 34 pages, 11 figures, position paper
One Rule to Bring Them All: Investigating Transport Connectivity in Public Transport Route Generation for Equitable Access	2026-02-11	Show Designing a city-wide public transport network poses a dual challenge: achieving computational efficiency while ensuring spatial equity for different population groups. We investigate whether AI-based optimization hybrid neuroevolutionary methods combining graph neural networks with evolutionary algorithms - can scale Transit Network Design Problem (TNDP) solutions from synthetic tests to real urban networks while preserving social fairness. Our contribution is to introduce a transport connectivity-aware accessibility metric that bases optimization on principles of equitable accessibility rather than traditional trade-offs between passenger and operator costs. The results show a noticeable improvement in network resilience by improving algebraic connectivity on synthetic datasets, and highlight the ambiguity of applying network generation to real data.
Efficient Learning on Large Graphs using a Densifying Regularity Lemma	2026-02-11	Show Learning on large graphs presents significant challenges, with traditional Message Passing Neural Networks suffering from computational and memory costs scaling linearly with the number of edges. We introduce the Intersecting Block Graph (IBG), a low-rank factorization of large directed graphs based on combinations of intersecting bipartite components, each consisting of a pair of communities, for source and target nodes. By giving less weight to non-edges, we show how to efficiently approximate any graph, sparse or dense, by a dense IBG. Specifically, we prove a constructive version of the weak regularity lemma, showing that for any chosen accuracy, every graph, regardless of its size or sparsity, can be approximated by a dense IBG whose rank depends only on the accuracy. This dependence of the rank solely on the accuracy, and not on the sparsity level, is in contrast to previous forms of the weak regularity lemma. We present a graph neural network architecture operating on the IBG representation of the graph and demonstrating competitive performance on node classification, spatio-temporal graph analysis, and knowledge graph completion, while having memory and computational complexity linear in the number of nodes rather than edges.
Exponential time differencing for matrix-valued dynamical systems	2026-02-11	Show Matrix evolution equations occur in many applications, such as dynamical Lyapunov/Sylvester systems or Riccati equations in optimization and stochastic control, machine learning or data assimilation. In many such problems, the dominant stability restriction is imposed by a stiff linear term, making standard explicit integrators impractical. Exponential time differencing (ETD) is known to produce highly stable numerical schemes by treating the linear term in an exact fashion. In particular, for stiff problems, ETD methods are the methods of choice. We extend ETD to matrix-valued evolution equations of the form $\dot Q = LQ + QR + N(Q,t)$ by deriving explicit matrix-ETD (METD) schemes. When $L$ and $R$ commute, we construct an explicit $p$-th order METD$p$ family and prove order-$p$ global convergence under standard assumptions; for the non-commuting case, we develop a Baker-Campbell-Hausdorff (BCH)-based extension. This allows us to produce highly efficient and stable integration schemes. We demonstrate efficiency and applicability on stiff PDE-derived and large-scale matrix dynamics, including an Allen-Cahn system, turbulent jet fluctuation statistics, and continuous graph neural networks. We further show that the scheme is more accurate, stable, and efficient than competing schemes in large-scale high-rank stiff systems.
Exploring the impact of adaptive rewiring in Graph Neural Networks	2026-02-11	Show This paper explores sparsification methods as a form of regularization in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to address high memory usage and computational costs in large-scale graph applications. Using techniques from Network Science and Machine Learning, including Erdős-Rényi for model sparsification, we enhance the efficiency of GNNs for real-world applications. We demonstrate our approach on N-1 contingency assessment in electrical grids, a critical task for ensuring grid reliability. We apply our methods to three datasets of varying sizes, exploring Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) and Graph Isomorphism Networks (GIN) with different degrees of sparsification and rewiring. Comparison across sparsification levels shows the potential of combining insights from both research fields to improve GNN performance and scalability. Our experiments highlight the importance of tuning sparsity parameters: while sparsity can improve generalization, excessive sparsity may hinder learning of complex patterns. Our adaptive rewiring approach, particularly when combined with early stopping, proves promising by allowing the model to adapt its connectivity structure during training. This research contributes to understanding how sparsity can be effectively leveraged in GNNs for critical applications like power grid reliability analysis.	This ... This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication
On Transferring Transferability: Towards a Theory for Size Generalization	2026-02-11	Show Many modern learning tasks require models that can take inputs of varying sizes. Consequently, dimension-independent architectures have been proposed for domains where the inputs are graphs, sets, and point clouds. Recent work on graph neural networks has explored whether a model trained on low-dimensional data can transfer its performance to higher-dimensional inputs. We extend this body of work by introducing a general framework for transferability across dimensions. We show that transferability corresponds precisely to continuity in a limit space formed by identifying small problem instances with equivalent large ones. This identification is driven by the data and the learning task. We instantiate our framework on existing architectures, and implement the necessary changes to ensure their transferability. Finally, we provide design principles for designing new transferable models. Numerical experiments support our findings.	75 pa... 75 pages, 10 figures, closest to version to be published in NeurIPS
Boundary-Aware Multi-Behavior Dynamic Graph Transformer for Sequential Recommendation	2026-02-11	Show In the landscape of contemporary recommender systems, user-item interactions are inherently dynamic and sequential, often characterized by various behaviors. Prior research has explored the modeling of user preferences through sequential interactions and the user-item interaction graph, utilizing advanced techniques such as graph neural networks and transformer-based architectures. However, these methods typically fall short in simultaneously accounting for the dynamic nature of graph topologies and the sequential pattern of interactions in user preference models. Moreover, they often fail to adequately capture the multiple user behavior boundaries during model optimization. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a boundary-aware Multi-Behavioral Dynamic Graph Transformer (MB-DGT) model that dynamically refines the graph structure to reflect the evolving patterns of user behaviors and interactions. Our model involves a transformer-based dynamic graph aggregator for user preference modeling, which assimilates the changing graph structure and the sequence of user behaviors. This integration yields a more comprehensive and dynamic representation of user preferences. For model optimization, we implement a user-specific multi-behavior loss function that delineates the interest boundaries among different behaviors, thereby enriching the personalized learning of user preferences. Comprehensive experiments across three datasets indicate that our model consistently delivers remarkable recommendation performance.
Graph neural networks uncover structure and functions underlying the activity of simulated neural assemblies	2026-02-11	Show Graph neural networks trained to predict observable dynamics can be used to decompose the temporal activity of complex heterogeneous systems into simple, interpretable representations. Here we apply this framework to simulated neural assemblies with thousands of neurons and demonstrate that it can jointly reveal the connectivity matrix, the neuron types, the signaling functions, and in some cases hidden external stimuli. In contrast to existing machine learning approaches such as recurrent neural networks and transformers, which emphasize predictive accuracy but offer limited interpretability, our method provides both reliable forecasts of neural activity and interpretable decomposition of the mechanisms governing large neural assemblies.
Dense Neural Networks are not Universal Approximators	2026-02-10	Show We investigate the approximation capabilities of dense neural networks. While universal approximation theorems establish that sufficiently large architectures can approximate arbitrary continuous functions if there are no restrictions on the weight values, we show that dense neural networks do not possess this universality. Our argument is based on a model compression approach, combining the weak regularity lemma with an interpretation of feedforward networks as message passing graph neural networks. We consider ReLU neural networks subject to natural constraints on weights and input and output dimensions, which model a notion of dense connectivity. Within this setting, we demonstrate the existence of Lipschitz continuous functions that cannot be approximated by such networks. This highlights intrinsic limitations of neural networks with dense layers and motivates the use of sparse connectivity as a necessary ingredient for achieving true universality.
Position: Message-passing and spectral GNNs are two sides of the same coin	2026-02-10	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) are commonly divided into message-passing neural networks (MPNNs) and spectral graph neural networks, reflecting two largely separate research traditions in machine learning and signal processing. This paper argues that this divide is mostly artificial, hindering progress in the field. We propose a viewpoint in which both MPNNs and spectral GNNs are understood as different parametrizations of permutation-equivariant operators acting on graph signals. From this perspective, many popular architectures are equivalent in expressive power, while genuine gaps arise only in specific regimes. We further argue that MPNNs and spectral GNNs offer complementary strengths. That is, MPNNs provide a natural language for discrete structure and expressivity analysis using tools from logic and graph isomorphism research, while the spectral perspective provides principled tools for understanding smoothing, bottlenecks, stability, and community structure. Overall, we posit that progress in graph learning will be accelerated by clearly understanding the key similarities and differences between these two types of GNNs, and by working towards unifying these perspectives within a common theoretical and conceptual framework rather than treating them as competing paradigms.
Predictive Modeling of Power Outages during Extreme Events: Integrating Weather and Socio-Economic Factors	2026-02-10	Show This paper presents a novel learning based framework for predicting power outages caused by extreme events. The proposed approach targets low-probability high-consequence outage scenarios and leverages a comprehensive set of features derived from publicly available data sources. We integrate EAGLE-I outage records from 2014 to 2024 with weather, socioeconomic, infrastructure, and seasonal event data. Incorporating social and demographic indicators reveals patterns of community vulnerability and improves understanding of outage risk during extreme conditions. Four machine learning models are evaluated, including Random Forest (RF), Graph Neural Network (GNN), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Experimental validation is performed on a large-scale dataset covering counties in the lower peninsula of Michigan. Among all models tested, the LSTM network achieves higher accuracy.
Differentiable Tripartite Modularity for Clustering Heterogeneous Graphs	2026-02-10	Show Clustering heterogeneous relational data remains a central challenge in graph learning, particularly when interactions involve more than two types of entities. While differentiable modularity objectives such as DMoN have enabled end-to-end community detection on homogeneous and bipartite graphs, extending these approaches to higher-order relational structures remains non-trivial. In this work, we introduce a differentiable formulation of tripartite modularity for graphs composed of three node types connected through mediated interactions. Community structure is defined in terms of weighted co-paths across the tripartite graph, together with an exact factorized computation that avoids the explicit construction of dense third-order tensors. A structural normalization at pivot nodes is introduced to control extreme degree heterogeneity and ensure stable optimization. The resulting objective can be optimized jointly with a graph neural network in an end-to-end manner, while retaining linear complexity in the number of edges. We validate the proposed framework on large-scale urban cadastral data, where it exhibits robust convergence behavior and produces spatially coherent partitions. These results highlight differentiable tripartite modularity as a generic methodological building block for unsupervised clustering of heterogeneous graphs.	12 pages, 3 figures
BRAVA-GNN: Betweenness Ranking Approximation Via Degree MAss Inspired Graph Neural Network	2026-02-10	Show Computing node importance in networks is a long-standing fundamental problem that has driven extensive study of various centrality measures. A particularly well-known centrality measure is betweenness centrality, which becomes computationally prohibitive on large-scale networks. Graph Neural Network (GNN) models have thus been proposed to predict node rankings according to their relative betweenness centrality. However, state-of-the-art methods fail to generalize to high-diameter graphs such as road networks. We propose BRAVA-GNN, a lightweight GNN architecture that leverages the empirically observed correlation linking betweenness centrality to degree-based quantities, in particular multi-hop degree mass. This correlation motivates the use of degree masses as size-invariant node features and synthetic training graphs that closely match the degree distributions of real networks. Furthermore, while previous work relies on scale-free synthetic graphs, we leverage the hyperbolic random graph model, which reproduces power-law exponents outside the scale-free regime, better capturing the structure of real-world graphs like road networks. This design enables BRAVA-GNN to generalize across diverse graph families while using 54x fewer parameters than the most lightweight existing GNN baseline. Extensive experiments on 19 real-world networks, spanning social, web, email, and road graphs, show that BRAVA-GNN achieves up to 214% improvement in Kendall-Tau correlation and up to 70x speedup in inference time over state-of-the-art GNN-based approaches, particularly on challenging road networks.	Submitted to KDD
Scalable and Reliable State-Aware Inference of High-Impact N-k Contingencies	2026-02-10	Show Increasing penetration of inverter-based resources, flexible loads, and rapidly changing operating conditions make higher-order $N!-!k$ contingency assessment increasingly important but computationally prohibitive. Exhaustive evaluation of all outage combinations using AC power-flow or ACOPF is infeasible in routine operation. This fact forces operators to rely on heuristic screening methods whose ability to consistently retain all critical contingencies is not formally established. This paper proposes a scalable, state-aware contingency inference framework designed to directly generate high-impact $N!-!k$ outage scenarios without enumerating the combinatorial contingency space. The framework employs a conditional diffusion model to produce candidate contingencies tailored to the current operating state, while a topology-aware graph neural network trained only on base and $N!-!1$ cases efficiently constructs high-risk training samples offline. Finally, the framework is developed to provide controllable coverage guarantees for severe contingencies, allowing operators to explicitly manage the risk of missing critical events under limited AC power-flow evaluation budgets. Experiments on IEEE benchmark systems show that, for a given evaluation budget, the proposed approach consistently evaluates higher-severity contingencies than uniform sampling. This allows critical outages to be identified more reliably with reduced computational effort.
Multimodal Graph Neural Networks for Prognostic Modeling of Brain Network Reorganization	2026-02-10	Show Understanding the dynamic reorganization of brain networks is critical for predicting cognitive decline, neurological progression, and individual variability in clinical outcomes. This work proposes a multimodal graph neural network framework that integrates structural MRI, diffusion tensor imaging, and functional MRI to model spatiotemporal brain network reorganization. Brain regions are represented as nodes and structural and functional connectivity as edges, forming longitudinal brain graphs for each subject. Temporal evolution is captured via fractional stochastic differential operators embedded within graph-based recurrent networks, enabling the modeling of long-term dependencies and stochastic fluctuations in network dynamics. Attention mechanisms fuse multimodal information and generate interpretable biomarkers, including network energy entropy, graph curvature, fractional memory indices, and modality-specific attention scores. These biomarkers are combined into a composite prognostic index to quantify individual risk of network instability or cognitive decline. Experiments on longitudinal neuroimaging datasets demonstrate both predictive accuracy and interpretability. The results highlight the potential of mathematically rigorous, multimodal graph-based approaches for deriving clinically meaningful biomarkers from existing imaging data without requiring new data collection.	Funda... Fundamental methodological error invalidating results
Exact Subgraph Isomorphism Network with Mixed $L_{0,2}$ Norm Constraint for Predictive Graph Mining	2026-02-10	Show In the graph-level prediction task (predict a label for a given graph), the information contained in subgraphs of the input graph plays a key role. In this paper, we propose Exact subgraph Isomorphism Network (EIN), which combines the exact subgraph enumeration, a neural network, and a sparse regularization by the mixed $L_{0,2}$ norm constraint. In general, building a graph-level prediction model achieving high discriminative ability along with interpretability is still a challenging problem. Our combination of the subgraph enumeration and neural network contributes to high discriminative ability about the subgraph structure of the input graph. Further, the sparse regularization in EIN enables us 1) to derive an effective pruning strategy that mitigates computational difficulty of the enumeration while maintaining the prediction performance, and 2) to identify important subgraphs that contributes to high interpretability. We empirically show that EIN has sufficiently high prediction performance compared with standard graph neural network models, and also, we show examples of post-hoc analysis based on the selected subgraphs.
Pave Your Own Path: Graph Gradual Domain Adaptation on Fused Gromov-Wasserstein Geodesics	2026-02-10	Show Graph neural networks, despite their impressive performance, are highly vulnerable to distribution shifts on graphs. Existing graph domain adaptation (graph DA) methods often implicitly assume a mild shift between source and target graphs, limiting their applicability to real-world scenarios with large shifts. Gradual domain adaptation (GDA) has emerged as a promising approach for addressing large shifts by gradually adapting the source model to the target domain via a path of unlabeled intermediate domains. Existing GDA methods exclusively focus on independent and identically distributed (IID) data with a predefined path, leaving their extension to non-IID graphs without a given path an open challenge. To bridge this gap, we present Gadget, the first GDA framework for non-IID graph data. First (theoretical foundation), the Fused Gromov-Wasserstein (FGW) distance is adopted as the domain discrepancy for non-IID graphs, based on which, we derive an error bound on node, edge and graph-level tasks, showing that the target domain error is proportional to the length of the path. Second (optimal path), guided by the error bound, we identify the FGW geodesic as the optimal path, which can be efficiently generated by our proposed algorithm. The generated path can be seamlessly integrated with existing graph DA methods to handle large shifts on graphs, improving state-of-the-art graph DA methods by up to 6.8% in accuracy on real-world datasets.	35 pages, 10 figures
Generalizing GNNs with Tokenized Mixture of Experts	2026-02-09	Show Deployed graph neural networks (GNNs) are frozen at deployment yet must fit clean data, generalize under distribution shifts, and remain stable to perturbations. We show that static inference induces a fundamental tradeoff: improving stability requires reducing reliance on shift-sensitive features, leaving an irreducible worst-case generalization floor. Instance-conditional routing can break this ceiling, but is fragile because shifts can mislead routing and perturbations can make routing fluctuate. We capture these effects via two decompositions separating coverage vs selection, and base sensitivity vs fluctuation amplification. Based on these insights, we propose STEM-GNN, a pretrain-then-finetune framework with a mixture-of-experts encoder for diverse computation paths, a vector-quantized token interface to stabilize encoder-to-head signals, and a Lipschitz-regularized head to bound output amplification. Across nine node, link, and graph benchmarks, STEM-GNN achieves a stronger three-way balance, improving robustness to degree/homophily shifts and to feature/edge corruptions while remaining competitive on clean graphs.	Graph... Graph Neural Networks, Generalization, Mixture of Experts
Rethinking Graph Generalization through the Lens of Sharpness-Aware Minimization	2026-02-09	Show Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved remarkable success across various graph-based tasks but remain highly sensitive to distribution shifts. In this work, we focus on a prevalent yet under-explored phenomenon in graph generalization, Minimal Shift Flip (MSF),where test samples that slightly deviate from the training distribution are abruptly misclassified. To interpret this phenomenon, we revisit MSF through the lens of Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM), which characterizes the local stability and sharpness of the loss landscape while providing a theoretical foundation for modeling generalization error. To quantify loss sharpness, we introduce the concept of Local Robust Radius, measuring the smallest perturbation required to flip a prediction and establishing a theoretical link between local stability and generalization. Building on this perspective, we further observe a continual decrease in the robust radius during training, indicating weakened local stability and an increasingly sharp loss landscape that gives rise to MSF. To jointly solve the MSF phenomenon and the intractability of radius, we develop an energy-based formulation that is theoretically proven to be monotonically correlated with the robust radius, offering a tractable and principled objective for modeling flatness and stability. Building on these insights, we propose an energy-driven generative augmentation framework (E2A) that leverages energy-guided latent perturbations to generate pseudo-OOD samples and enhance model generalization. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that E2A consistently improves graph OOD generalization, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines.
A Graphop Analysis of Graph Neural Networks on Sparse Graphs: Generalization and Universal Approximation	2026-02-09	Show Generalization and approximation capabilities of message passing graph neural networks (MPNNs) are often studied by defining a compact metric on a space of input graphs under which MPNNs are Hölder continuous. Such analyses are of two varieties: 1) when the metric space includes graphs of unbounded sizes, the theory is only appropriate for dense graphs, and, 2) when studying sparse graphs, the metric space only includes graphs of uniformly bounded size. In this work, we present a unified approach, defining a compact metric on the space of graphs of all sizes, both sparse and dense, under which MPNNs are Hölder continuous. This leads to more powerful universal approximation theorems and generalization bounds than previous works. The theory is based on, and extends, a recent approach to graph limit theory called graphop analysis.
HoGS: Homophily-Oriented Graph Synthesis for Local Differentially Private GNN Training	2026-02-09	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in various graph-based machine learning tasks by effectively modeling high-order interactions between nodes. However, training GNNs without protection may leak sensitive personal information in graph data, including links and node features. Local differential privacy (LDP) is an advanced technique for protecting data privacy in decentralized networks. Unfortunately, existing local differentially private GNNs either only preserve link privacy or suffer significant utility loss in the process of preserving link and node feature privacy. In this paper, we propose an effective LDP framework, called HoGS, which trains GNNs with link and feature protection by generating a synthetic graph. Concretely, HoGS first collects the link and feature information of the graph under LDP, and then utilizes the phenomenon of homophily in graph data to reconstruct the graph structure and node features separately, thereby effectively mitigating the negative impact of LDP on the downstream GNN training. We theoretically analyze the privacy guarantee of HoGS and conduct experiments using the generated synthetic graph as input to various state-of-the-art GNN architectures. Experimental results on three real-world datasets show that HoGS significantly outperforms baseline methods in the accuracy of training GNNs.
On the Expressive Power of GNNs for Boolean Satisfiability	2026-02-09	Show Machine learning approaches to solving Boolean Satisfiability (SAT) aim to replace handcrafted heuristics with learning-based models. Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the main architecture for SAT solving, due to the natural graph representation of Boolean formulas. We analyze the expressive power of GNNs for SAT solving through the lens of the Weisfeiler-Leman (WL) test. As our main result, we prove that the full WL hierarchy cannot, in general, distinguish between satisfiable and unsatisfiable instances. We show that indistinguishability under higher-order WL carries over to practical limitations for WL-bounded solvers that set variables sequentially. We further study the expressivity required for several important families of SAT instances, including regular, random and planar instances. To quantify expressivity needs in practice, we conduct experiments on random instances from the G4SAT benchmark and industrial instances from the International SAT Competition. Our results suggest that while random instances are largely distinguishable, industrial instances often require more expressivity to predict a satisfying assignment.	Accep... Accepted at ICLR 2026
Decoupling and Damping: Structurally-Regularized Gradient Matching for Multimodal Graph Condensation	2026-02-09	Show In multimodal graph learning, graph structures that integrate information from multiple sources, such as vision and text, can more comprehensively model complex entity relationships. However, the continuous growth of their data scale poses a significant computational bottleneck for training. Graph condensation methods provide a feasible path forward by synthesizing compact and representative datasets. Nevertheless, existing condensation approaches generally suffer from performance limitations in multimodal scenarios, mainly due to two reasons: (1) semantic misalignment between different modalities leads to gradient conflicts; (2) the message-passing mechanism of graph neural networks further structurally amplifies such gradient noise. Based on this, we propose Structural Regularized Gradient Matching (SR-GM), a condensation framework for multimodal graphs. This method alleviates gradient conflicts between modalities through a gradient decoupling mechanism and introduces a structural damping regularizer to suppress the propagation of gradient noise in the topology, thereby transforming the graph structure from a noise amplifier into a training stabilizer. Extensive experiments on four multimodal graph datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of SR-GM, highlighting its state-of-the-art performance and cross-architecture generalization capabilities in multimodal graph dataset condensation.	12pag... 12pages,7 figures,8 tables
Enhancing Genetic Algorithms with Graph Neural Networks: A Timetabling Case Study	2026-02-09	Show This paper investigates the impact of hybridizing a multi-modal Genetic Algorithm with a Graph Neural Network for timetabling optimization. The Graph Neural Network is designed to encapsulate general domain knowledge to improve schedule quality, while the Genetic Algorithm explores different regions of the search space and integrates the deep learning model as an enhancement operator to guide the solution search towards optimality. Initially, both components of the hybrid technique were designed, developed, and optimized independently to solve the tackled task. Multiple experiments were conducted on Staff Rostering, a well-known timetabling problem, to compare the proposed hybridization with the standalone optimized versions of the Genetic Algorithm and Graph Neural Network. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed hybridization brings statistically significant improvements in both the time efficiency and solution quality metrics, compared to the standalone methods. To the best of our knowledge, this work proposes the first hybridization of a Genetic Algorithm with a Graph Neural Network for solving timetabling problems.	Paper... Paper accepted to the International Conference on Applications of Evolutionary Computation (EvoApplications) 2026
TFMLinker: Universal Link Predictor by Graph In-Context Learning with Tabular Foundation Models	2026-02-09	Show Link prediction is a fundamental task in graph machine learning with widespread applications such as recommendation systems, drug discovery, knowledge graphs, etc. In the foundation model era, how to develop universal link prediction methods across datasets and domains becomes a key problem, with some initial attempts adopting Graph Foundation Models utilizing Graph Neural Networks and Large Language Models. However, the existing methods face notable limitations, including limited pre-training scale or heavy reliance on textual information. Motivated by the success of tabular foundation models (TFMs) in achieving universal prediction across diverse tabular datasets, we explore an alternative approach by TFMs, which are pre-trained on diverse synthetic datasets sampled from structural causal models and support strong in-context learning independent of textual attributes. Nevertheless, adapting TFMs for link prediction faces severe technical challenges such as how to obtain the necessary context and capture link-centric topological information. To solve these challenges, we propose TFMLinker (Tabular Foundation Model for Link Predictor), aiming to leverage the in-context learning capabilities of TFMs to perform link prediction across diverse graphs without requiring dataset-specific fine-tuning. Specifically, we first develop a prototype-augmented local-global context module to construct context that captures both graph-specific and cross-graph transferable patterns. Next, we design a universal topology-aware link encoder to capture link-centric topological information and generate link representations as inputs for the TFM. Finally, we employ the TFM to predict link existence through in-context learning. Experiments on 6 graph benchmarks across diverse domains demonstrate the superiority of our method over state-of-the-art baselines without requiring dataset-specific finetuning.
Is Meta-Path Attention an Explanation? Evidence of Alignment and Decoupling in Heterogeneous GNNs	2026-02-09	Show Meta-path-based heterogeneous graph neural networks aggregate over meta-path-induced views, and their semantic-level attention over meta-path channels is widely used as a narrative for ``which semantics matter.'' We study this assumption empirically by asking: when does meta-path attention reflect meta-path importance, and when can it decouple? A key challenge is that most post-hoc GNN explainers are designed for homogeneous graphs, and naive adaptations to heterogeneous neighborhoods can mix semantics and confound perturbations. To enable a controlled empirical analysis, we introduce MetaXplain, a meta-path-aware post-hoc explanation protocol that applies existing explainers in the native meta-path view domain via (i) view-factorized explanations, (ii) schema-valid channel-wise perturbations, and (iii) fusion-aware attribution, without modifying the underlying predictor. We benchmark representative gradient-, perturbation-, and Shapley-style explainers on ACM, DBLP, and IMDB with HAN and HAN-GCN, comparing against xPath and type-matched random baselines under standard faithfulness metrics. To quantify attention reliability, we propose Meta-Path Attention--Explanation Alignment (MP-AEA), which measures rank correlation between learned attention weights and explanation-derived meta-path contribution scores across random runs. Our results show that meta-path-aware explanations typically outperform random controls, while MP-AEA reveals both high-alignment and statistically significant decoupling regimes depending on the dataset and backbone; moreover, retraining on explanation-induced subgraphs often preserves, and in some noisy regimes improves, predictive performance, suggesting an explanation-as-denoising effect.
Efficient Graph Knowledge Distillation from GNNs to Kolmogorov--Arnold Networks via Self-Attention Dynamic Sampling	2026-02-09	Show Recent success of graph neural networks (GNNs) in modeling complex graph-structured data has fueled interest in deploying them on resource-constrained edge devices. However, their substantial computational and memory demands present ongoing challenges. Knowledge distillation (KD) from GNNs to MLPs offers a lightweight alternative, but MLPs remain limited by fixed activations and the absence of neighborhood aggregation, constraining distilled performance. To tackle these intertwined limitations, we propose SA-DSD, a novel self-attention-guided dynamic sampling distillation framework. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to employ an enhanced Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) as the student model. We improve Fourier KAN (FR-KAN+) with learnable frequency bases, phase shifts, and optimized algorithms, substantially improving nonlinear fitting capability over MLPs while preserving low computational complexity. To explicitly compensate for the absence of neighborhood aggregation that is inherent to both MLPs and KAN-based students, SA-DSD leverages a self-attention mechanism to dynamically identify influential nodes, construct adaptive sampling probability matrices, and enforce teacher-student prediction consistency. Extensive experiments on six real world datasets demonstrate that, under inductive and most of transductive settings, SA-DSD surpasses three GNN teachers by 3.05%-3.62% and improves FR-KAN+ by 15.61%. Moreover, it achieves a 16.69x parameter reduction and a 55.75% decrease in average runtime per epoch compared to key benchmarks.
Geometric Reasoning in the Embedding Space	2026-02-08	Show In this contribution, we demonstrate that Graph Neural Networks and Transformers can learn to reason about geometric constraints. We train them to predict spatial position of points in a discrete 2D grid from a set of constraints that uniquely describe hidden figures containing these points. Both models are able to predict the position of points and interestingly, they form the hidden figures described by the input constraints in the embedding space during the reasoning process. Our analysis shows that both models recover the grid structure during training so that the embeddings corresponding to the points within the grid organize themselves in a 2D subspace and reflect the neighborhood structure of the grid. We also show that the Graph Neural Network we design for the task performs significantly better than the Transformer and is also easier to scale.
Weak to Strong: VLM-Based Pseudo-Labeling as a Weakly Supervised Training Strategy in Multimodal Video-based Hidden Emotion Understanding Tasks	2026-02-08	Show To tackle the automatic recognition of "concealed emotions" in videos, this paper proposes a multimodal weak-supervision framework and achieves state-of-the-art results on the iMiGUE tennis-interview dataset. First, YOLO 11x detects and crops human portraits frame-by-frame, and DINOv2-Base extracts visual features from the cropped regions. Next, by integrating Chain-of-Thought and Reflection prompting (CoT + Reflection), Gemini 2.5 Pro automatically generates pseudo-labels and reasoning texts that serve as weak supervision for downstream models. Subsequently, OpenPose produces 137-dimensional key-point sequences, augmented with inter-frame offset features; the usual graph neural network backbone is simplified to an MLP to efficiently model the spatiotemporal relationships of the three key-point streams. An ultra-long-sequence Transformer independently encodes both the image and key-point sequences, and their representations are concatenated with BERT-encoded interview transcripts. Each modality is first pre-trained in isolation, then fine-tuned jointly, with pseudo-labeled samples merged into the training set for further gains. Experiments demonstrate that, despite severe class imbalance, the proposed approach lifts accuracy from under 0.6 in prior work to over 0.69, establishing a new public benchmark. The study also validates that an "MLP-ified" key-point backbone can match - or even surpass - GCN-based counterparts in this task.
Graph-Enhanced Deep Reinforcement Learning for Multi-Objective Unrelated Parallel Machine Scheduling	2026-02-08	Show The Unrelated Parallel Machine Scheduling Problem (UPMSP) with release dates, setups, and eligibility constraints presents a significant multi-objective challenge. Traditional methods struggle to balance minimizing Total Weighted Tardiness (TWT) and Total Setup Time (TST). This paper proposes a Deep Reinforcement Learning framework using Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and a Graph Neural Network (GNN). The GNN effectively represents the complex state of jobs, machines, and setups, allowing the PPO agent to learn a direct scheduling policy. Guided by a multi-objective reward function, the agent simultaneously minimizes TWT and TST. Experimental results on benchmark instances demonstrate that our PPO-GNN agent significantly outperforms a standard dispatching rule and a metaheuristic, achieving a superior trade-off between both objectives. This provides a robust and scalable solution for complex manufacturing scheduling.	11 pa... 11 pages, 2 figures, Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) 2025
PhysDrape: Learning Explicit Forces and Collision Constraints for Physically Realistic Garment Draping	2026-02-08	Show Deep learning-based garment draping has emerged as a promising alternative to traditional Physics-Based Simulation (PBS), yet robust collision handling remains a critical bottleneck. Most existing methods enforce physical validity through soft penalties, creating an intrinsic trade-off between geometric feasibility and physical plausibility: penalizing collisions often distorts mesh structure, while preserving shape leads to interpenetration. To resolve this conflict, we present PhysDrape, a hybrid neural-physical solver for physically realistic garment draping driven by explicit forces and constraints. Unlike soft-constrained frameworks, PhysDrape integrates neural inference with explicit geometric solvers in a fully differentiable pipeline. Specifically, we propose a Physics-Informed Graph Neural Network conditioned on a physics-enriched graph -- encoding material parameters and body proximity -- to predict residual displacements. Crucially, we integrate a differentiable two-stage solver: first, a learnable Force Solver iteratively resolves unbalanced forces derived from the Saint Venant-Kirchhoff (StVK) model to ensure quasi-static equilibrium; second, a Differentiable Projection strictly enforces collision constraints against the body surface. This differentiable design guarantees physical validity through explicit constraints, while enabling end-to-end learning to optimize the network for physically consistent predictions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PhysDrape achieves state-of-the-art performance, ensuring negligible interpenetration with significantly lower strain energy compared to existing baselines, achieving superior physical fidelity and robustness in real-time.
Integrating Structural and Semantic Signals in Text-Attributed Graphs with BiGTex	2026-02-08	Show Text-attributed graphs (TAGs) present unique challenges in representation learning by requiring models to capture both the semantic richness of node-associated texts and the structural dependencies of the graph. While graph neural networks (GNNs) excel at modeling topological information, they lack the capacity to process unstructured text. Conversely, large language models (LLMs) are proficient in text understanding but are typically unaware of graph structure. In this work, we propose BiGTex (Bidirectional Graph Text), a novel architecture that tightly integrates GNNs and LLMs through stacked Graph-Text Fusion Units. Each unit allows for mutual attention between textual and structural representations, enabling information to flow in both directions, text influencing structure and structure guiding textual interpretation. The proposed architecture is trained using parameter-efficient fine-tuning (LoRA), keeping the LLM frozen while adapting to task-specific signals. Extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGTex achieves state-of-the-art performance in node classification and generalizes effectively to link prediction. An ablation study further highlights the importance of soft prompting and bi-directional attention in the model's success.	26 pages, 4 figures
Learning Geometric-Aware Quadrature Rules for Functional Minimization	2026-02-08	Show Accurate numerical integration over non-uniform point clouds is a challenge for modern mesh-free machine learning solvers for partial differential equations (PDEs) using variational principles. While standard Monte Carlo (MC) methods are not capable of handling a non-uniform point cloud, modern neural network architectures can deal with permutation-invariant inputs, creating quadrature rules for any point cloud. In this work, we introduce QuadrANN, a Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture designed to learn optimal quadrature weights directly from the underlying geometry of point clouds. The design of the model exploits a deep message-passing scheme where the initial layer encodes rich local geometric features from absolute and relative positions as well as an explicit local density measure. In contrast, the following layers incorporate a global context vector. These architectural choices allow the QuadrANN to generate a data-driven quadrature rule that is permutation-invariant and adaptive to both local point density and the overall domain shape. We test our methodology on a series of challenging test cases, including integration on convex and non-convex domains and estimating the solution of the Heat and Fokker-Planck equations. Across all the tests, QuadrANN reduces the variance of the integral estimation compared to standard Quasi-Monte Carlo methods by warping the point clouds to be more dense in critical areas where the integrands present certain singularities. This enhanced stability in critical areas of the domain at hand is critical for the optimization of energy functionals, leading to improved deep learning-based variational solvers.	17 pages, 5 figures
LogicXGNN: Grounded Logical Rules for Explaining Graph Neural Networks	2026-02-08	Show Existing rule-based explanations for Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) provide global interpretability but often optimize and assess fidelity in an intermediate, uninterpretable concept space, overlooking grounding quality for end users in the final subgraph explanations. This gap yields explanations that may appear faithful yet be unreliable in practice. To this end, we propose LogicXGNN, a post-hoc framework that constructs logical rules over reliable predicates explicitly designed to capture the GNN's message-passing structure, thereby ensuring effective grounding. We further introduce data-grounded fidelity ($\textit{Fid}{\mathcal{D}}$), a realistic metric that evaluates explanations in their final-graph form, along with complementary utility metrics such as coverage and validity. Across extensive experiments, LogicXGNN improves $\textit{Fid}{\mathcal{D}}$ by over 20% on average relative to state-of-the-art methods while being 10-100 $\times$ faster. With strong scalability and utility performance, LogicXGNN produces explanations that are faithful to the model's logic and reliably grounded in observable data. Our code is available at https://github.com/allengeng123/LogicXGNN/.	32 pages, 14 figures
HoloGraph: All-Optical Graph Learning via Light Diffraction	2026-02-07	Show As a representative of next-generation device/circuit technology beyond CMOS, physics-based neural networks such as Diffractive Optical Neural Networks (DONNs) have demonstrated promising advantages in computational speed and energy efficiency. However, existing DONNs and other physics-based neural networks have mostly focused on exploring their machine intelligence, with limited studies in handling graph-structured tasks. Thus, we introduce HoloGraph, the first monolithic free-space all-optical graph neural network system. It proposes a novel, domain-specific message-passing mechanism with optical skip channels integrated into light propagation for the all-optical graph learning. HoloGraph enables light-speed optical message passing over graph structures with diffractive propagation and phase modulations. Our experimental results with HoloGraph, conducted using standard graph learning datasets Cora-ML and Citeseer, show competitive or even superior classification performance compared to conventional digital graph neural networks. Comprehensive ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed novel architecture and algorithmic methods.
Quantifying Explanation Quality in Graph Neural Networks using Out-of-Distribution Generalization	2026-02-07	Show Evaluating the quality of post-hoc explanations for Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) remains a significant challenge. While recent years have seen an increasing development of explainability methods, current evaluation metrics (e.g., fidelity, sparsity) often fail to assess whether an explanation identifies the true underlying causal variables. To address this, we propose the Explanation-Generalization Score (EGS), a metric that quantifies the causal relevance of GNN explanations. EGS is founded on the principle of feature invariance and posits that if an explanation captures true causal drivers, it should lead to stable predictions across distribution shifts. To quantify this, we introduce a framework that trains GNNs using explanatory subgraphs and evaluates their performance in Out-of-Distribution (OOD) settings (here, OOD generalization serves as a rigorous proxy for the explanation's causal validity). Through large-scale validation involving 11,200 model combinations across synthetic and real-world datasets, our results demonstrate that EGS provides a principled benchmark for ranking explainers based on their ability to capture causal substructures, offering a robust alternative to traditional fidelity-based metrics.
CaPGNN: Optimizing Parallel Graph Neural Network Training with Joint Caching and Resource-Aware Graph Partitioning	2026-02-07	Show Graph-structured data is ubiquitous in the real world, and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have become increasingly popular in various fields due to their ability to process such irregular data directly. However, as data scale, GNNs become inefficient. Although parallel training offers performance improvements, increased communication costs often offset these advantages. To address this, this paper introduces CaPGNN, a novel parallel full-batch GNN training framework on single-server with multi-GPU. Firstly, considering the fact that the number of remote vertices in a partition is often greater than or equal to the number of local vertices and there may exist many duplicate vertices, we propose a joint adaptive caching algorithm that leverages both CPU and GPU memory, integrating lightweight cache update and prefetch techniques to effectively reduce redundant communication costs. Furthermore, taking into account the varying computational and communication capabilities among GPUs, we propose a communication- and computation-aware heuristic graph partitioning algorithm inspired by graph sparsification. Additionally, we implement a pipeline to overlap computation and communication. Extensive experiments show that CaPGNN improves training efficiency by up to 18.98x and reduces communication costs by up to 99%, with minimal accuracy loss or even accuracy improvement in some cases. Finally, we extend CaPGNN to multi-machine multi-GPU environments. The code is available at https://github.com/songxf1024/CaPGNN.
FEM-Informed Hypergraph Neural Networks for Efficient Elastoplasticity	2026-02-07	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) naturally align with sparse operators and unstructured discretizations, making them a promising paradigm for physics-informed machine learning in computational mechanics. Motivated by discrete physics losses and Hierarchical Deep Learning Neural Network (HiDeNN) constructions, we embed finite-element (FEM) computations at nodes and Gauss points directly into message-passing layers and propose a numerically consistent FEM-Informed Hypergraph Neural Networks (FHGNN). Similar to conventional physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), training is purely physics-driven and requires no labeled data: the input is a node element hypergraph whose edges encode mesh connectivity. Guided by empirical results and condition-number analysis, we adopt an efficient variational loss. Validated on 3D benchmarks, including cyclic loading with isotropic/kinematic hardening, the proposed method delivers substantially improved accuracy and efficiency over recent, competitive PINN variants. By leveraging GPU-parallel tensor operations and the discrete representation, it scales effectively to large elastoplastic problems and can be competitive with, or faster than, multi-core FEM implementations at comparable accuracy. This work establishes a foundation for scalable, physics-embedded learning in nonlinear solid mechanics.	43 pa... 43 pages, 26 figures, 8tables
GRAND: Guidance, Rebalancing, and Assignment for Networked Dispatch in Multi-Agent Path Finding	2026-02-07	Show Large robot fleets are now common in warehouses and other logistics settings, where small control gains translate into large operational impacts. In this article, we address task scheduling for lifelong Multi-Agent Pickup-and-Delivery (MAPD) and propose a hybrid method that couples learning-based global guidance with lightweight optimization. A graph neural network policy trained via reinforcement learning outputs a desired distribution of free agents over an aggregated warehouse graph. This signal is converted into region-to-region rebalancing through a minimum-cost flow, and finalized by small, local assignment problems, preserving accuracy while keeping per-step latency within a 1 s compute budget. On congested warehouse benchmarks from the League of Robot Runners (LoRR) with up to 500 agents, our approach improves throughput by up to 10% over the 2024 winning scheduler while maintaining real-time execution. The results indicate that coupling graph-structured learned guidance with tractable solvers reduces congestion and yields a practical, scalable blueprint for high-throughput scheduling in large fleets.
Report for NSF Workshop on AI for Electronic Design Automation	2026-02-06	Show This report distills the discussions and recommendations from the NSF Workshop on AI for Electronic Design Automation (EDA), held on December 10, 2024 in Vancouver alongside NeurIPS 2024. Bringing together experts across machine learning and EDA, the workshop examined how AI-spanning large language models (LLMs), graph neural networks (GNNs), reinforcement learning (RL), neurosymbolic methods, etc.-can facilitate EDA and shorten design turnaround. The workshop includes four themes: (1) AI for physical synthesis and design for manufacturing (DFM), discussing challenges in physical manufacturing process and potential AI applications; (2) AI for high-level and logic-level synthesis (HLS/LLS), covering pragma insertion, program transformation, RTL code generation, etc.; (3) AI toolbox for optimization and design, discussing frontier AI developments that could potentially be applied to EDA tasks; and (4) AI for test and verification, including LLM-assisted verification tools, ML-augmented SAT solving, security/reliability challenges, etc. The report recommends NSF to foster AI/EDA collaboration, invest in foundational AI for EDA, develop robust data infrastructures, promote scalable compute infrastructure, and invest in workforce development to democratize hardware design and enable next-generation hardware systems. The workshop information can be found on the website https://ai4eda-workshop.github.io/.	Accep... Accepted by IEEE Circuits and Systems Magazine (2026)
Graph homophily booster: Reimagining the role of discrete features in heterophilic graph learning	2026-02-06	Show Graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged as a powerful tool for modeling graph-structured data. However, existing GNNs often struggle with heterophilic graphs, where connected nodes tend to have dissimilar features or labels. While numerous methods have been proposed to address this challenge, they primarily focus on architectural designs without directly targeting the root cause of the heterophily problem. These approaches still perform even worse than the simplest MLPs on challenging heterophilic datasets. For instance, our experiments show that 21 latest GNNs still fall behind the MLP on the Actor dataset. This critical challenge calls for an innovative approach to addressing graph heterophily beyond architectural designs. To bridge this gap, we propose and study a new and unexplored paradigm: directly increasing the graph homophily via a carefully designed graph transformation. In this work, we present a simple yet effective framework called GRAPHITE to address graph heterophily. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first method that explicitly transforms the graph to directly improve the graph homophily. Stemmed from the exact definition of homophily, our proposed GRAPHITE creates feature nodes to facilitate homophilic message passing between nodes that share similar features. Furthermore, we both theoretically and empirically show that our proposed GRAPHITE significantly increases the homophily of originally heterophilic graphs, with only a slight increase in the graph size. Extensive experiments on challenging datasets demonstrate that our proposed GRAPHITE significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on heterophilic graphs while achieving comparable accuracy with state-of-the-art methods on homophilic graphs.	ICLR 2026
Finding Connections: Membership Inference Attacks for the Multi-Table Synthetic Data Setting	2026-02-06	Show Synthetic tabular data has gained attention for enabling privacy-preserving data sharing. While substantial progress has been made in single-table synthetic generation where data are modeled at the row or item level, most real-world data exists in relational databases where a user's information spans items across multiple interconnected tables. Recent advances in synthetic relational data generation have emerged to address this complexity, yet release of these data introduce unique privacy challenges as information can be leaked not only from individual items but also through the relationships that comprise a complete user entity. To address this, we propose a novel Membership Inference Attack (MIA) setting to audit the empirical user-level privacy of synthetic relational data and show that single-table MIAs that audit at an item level underestimate user-level privacy leakage. We then propose Multi-Table Membership Inference Attack (MT-MIA), a novel adversarial attack under a No-Box threat model that targets learned representations of user entities via Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks. By incorporating all connected items for a user, MT-MIA better targets user-level vulnerabilities induced by inter-tabular relationships than existing attacks. We evaluate MT-MIA on a range of real-world multi-table datasets and demonstrate that this vulnerability exists in state-of-the-art relational synthetic data generators, employing MT-MIA to additionally study where this leakage occurs.
Interpreting Manifolds and Graph Neural Embeddings from Internet of Things Traffic Flows	2026-02-06	Show The rapid expansion of Internet of Things (IoT) ecosystems has led to increasingly complex and heterogeneous network topologies. Traditional network monitoring and visualization tools rely on aggregated metrics or static representations, which fail to capture the evolving relationships and structural dependencies between devices. Although Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) offer a powerful way to learn from relational data, their internal representations often remain opaque and difficult to interpret for security-critical operations. Consequently, this work introduces an interpretable pipeline that generates directly visualizable low-dimensional representations by mapping high-dimensional embeddings onto a latent manifold. This projection enables the interpretable monitoring and interoperability of evolving network states, while integrated feature attribution techniques decode the specific characteristics shaping the manifold structure. The framework achieves a classification F1-score of 0.830 for intrusion detection while also highlighting phenomena such as concept drift. Ultimately, the presented approach bridges the gap between high-dimensional GNN embeddings and human-understandable network behavior, offering new insights for network administrators and security analysts.