feat(#510): enforce thesis confidence rules

atris/MAP.md

@@ -206,12 +206,13 @@ rg "export class Memory|getMemory|getMemoryAsync" src/memory/unified.ts  # Unifi
 
 ### Feature: Investing Thesis Ledger
 **Purpose:** Persist canonical thesis records, sync valuation context, and append versioned thesis revisions from thesis-refresh workflows.
-- **Thesis draft + snapshot builder:** `src/domain/investing/thesis.ts:320`
-- **Record sync + revision store:** `src/domain/investing/thesis.ts:358`, `src/domain/investing/thesis.ts:409`
+- **Confidence rule + thesis draft builder:** `src/domain/investing/thesis.ts:293`, `src/domain/investing/thesis.ts:409`
+- **Record sync + revision store:** `src/domain/investing/thesis.ts:476`, `src/domain/investing/thesis.ts:528`
 - **Executor thesis-refresh integration:** `src/domain/investing/executor.ts:384`, `src/domain/investing/executor.ts:563`
 - **Valuation packet sync hook:** `src/domain/investing/valuation-packet.ts:280`
 - **CLI surface (`zee investing thesis status`):** `packages/zee/src/cli/cmd/investing.ts:320`
 - **Operator doc:** `docs/architecture/investing-thesis-ledger.md:1`
+- **Confidence rule doc:** `docs/architecture/investing-thesis-confidence.md:1`
 
 ### Feature: Memory (Qdrant + Hybrid Search + Markdown Sync)
 **Purpose:** Store and retrieve semantic/keyword/hybrid memories with local Qdrant.

docs/architecture/investing-thesis-confidence.md

@@ -0,0 +1,68 @@
+# Investing Thesis Confidence Rules
+
+This slice closes `#510`.
+
+The thesis ledger now requires evidence links for every persisted thesis revision and applies a deterministic confidence rule before any conviction change is accepted.
+
+## Rule contract
+
+Rule ID:
+
+- `thesis-confidence.v1`
+
+Each revision now carries a `confidence` block with:
+
+- `requestedConviction`
+  - the conviction requested by the caller or carried forward from the prior thesis state
+- `appliedConviction`
+  - the conviction actually written after the rule runs
+- `maxAllowedConviction`
+  - the highest conviction the linked evidence bundle is allowed to support
+- `score`
+  - rule score derived from evidence count, tool diversity, and linked valuation context
+- `evidenceCount`
+  - number of linked evidence references on the revision
+- `uniqueTools[]`
+  - distinct tool paths represented by the evidence
+- `reasons[]`
+  - operator-readable explanation for the resulting conviction
+
+## Current rules
+
+`thesis-confidence.v1` applies these checks:
+
+1. A thesis revision must include at least one evidence reference.
+2. Evidence count contributes to the confidence score.
+3. Distinct tool-path coverage contributes to the confidence score.
+4. Linked valuation context contributes to the confidence score.
+5. A `balanced` valuation signal caps conviction at `medium` even when evidence is otherwise strong.
+6. If the requested conviction is stronger than the rule allows, Zee downshifts it and records the reason.
+
+The rule is intentionally simple and deterministic. It gives operators an explicit audit trail now, while leaving room for richer scoring and policy later.
+
+## Execution integration
+
+The `thesis-refresh` path now does two things before it writes a revision:
+
+- converts completed research evidence into thesis evidence references
+- runs `thesis-confidence.v1` and stores the result on both the revision and the current thesis record
+
+The thesis snapshot appended to synthesis output now also shows the applied confidence rule and reasons so operators can audit the conviction before reading the persisted change log.
+
+## Telemetry
+
+This slice emits:
+
+- `investing.thesis.confidence`
+  - one event per thesis revision confidence evaluation
+- `investing.thesis.revision`
+  - now includes requested and applied conviction metadata
+
+## Operator checks
+
+Use the thesis ledger record or revision payload to inspect:
+
+- whether the revision had evidence links
+- which tools backed the change
+- whether the requested conviction was downgraded
+- why the rule accepted the final conviction level

docs/architecture/investing-thesis-ledger.md

@@ -32,6 +32,8 @@ Each record stores:
   - next monitoring items that should trigger a refresh
 - `valuation`
   - latest linked valuation case, packet, run, and signal metadata
+- `confidence`
+  - latest applied thesis confidence assessment
 - `revisions[]`
   - append-only change log for the thesis
 
@@ -57,6 +59,8 @@ Each revision stores:
   - linked valuation snapshot for later diffing
 - `evidence[]`
   - references to persisted evidence or valuation packets
+- `confidence`
+  - applied confidence rule, capped conviction, and operator-readable reasons
 - `source`
   - workflow/task/execution/artifact pointers when the revision came from automation
 
@@ -83,6 +87,8 @@ zee investing thesis status --json
 
 `zee investing thesis status` reports total theses, total revisions, and current counts by status and conviction.
 
+Confidence rules and downgrade behavior are documented in `docs/architecture/investing-thesis-confidence.md`.
+
 ## Telemetry
 
 Flux events emitted for this slice:
@@ -91,3 +97,5 @@ Flux events emitted for this slice:
   - emitted whenever a thesis record is created, updated, or advanced by a revision
 - `investing.thesis.revision`
   - emitted whenever a new thesis revision is appended to the change log
+- `investing.thesis.confidence`
+  - emitted whenever Zee evaluates the confidence rule for a thesis revision

packages/zee/src/flux/types.ts

@@ -68,6 +68,7 @@ export type FluxKind =
   | "investing.valuation.packet.export"
   | "investing.thesis.record"
   | "investing.thesis.revision"
+  | "investing.thesis.confidence"
   | "agent.legacy_tools_alias.used"
   | "gateway.fallback.invoked"
   | "provider.fallback.used"

packages/zee/test/investing/thesis-ledger.test.ts

@@ -72,6 +72,22 @@ describe("investing thesis ledger", () => {
           currentPrice: 100,
           upsidePercent: 40,
         },
+        evidence: [
+          {
+            kind: "research-evidence",
+            id: "evidence-1",
+            label: "[E1] Research endpoint",
+            link: "evidence:execution-1:E1",
+            toolId: "zee:invest-research",
+          },
+          {
+            kind: "valuation-packet",
+            id: "valuation-packet-1",
+            label: "Valuation packet for NVDA",
+            link: "valuation-packet:valuation-packet-1",
+            toolId: "zee:invest-valuation",
+          },
+        ],
       })
 
       const updated = recordInvestingThesisRevision({
@@ -80,7 +96,7 @@ describe("investing thesis ledger", () => {
         changeType: "refresh",
         summary: "NVDA thesis moved back to a neutral stance after estimate volatility.",
         thesis: "The setup is intact, but the margin of safety is narrower than the prior refresh.",
-        conviction: "medium",
+        conviction: "high",
         posture: "neutral",
         watchpoints: ["Monitor estimate volatility before increasing exposure."],
         valuation: {
@@ -92,6 +108,15 @@ describe("investing thesis ledger", () => {
           currentPrice: 105,
           upsidePercent: 6.7,
         },
+        evidence: [
+          {
+            kind: "research-evidence",
+            id: "evidence-2",
+            label: "[E1] Analyst estimates",
+            link: "evidence:execution-2:E1",
+            toolId: "zee:invest-estimates",
+          },
+        ],
       })
 
       expect(updated.currentVersion).toBe(2)
@@ -110,6 +135,24 @@ describe("investing thesis ledger", () => {
       expect(await Bun.file(getInvestingThesisStateFile()).exists()).toBe(true)
       expect(recordSpy.mock.calls.some((call) => call[0]?.kind === "investing.thesis.record")).toBe(true)
       expect(recordSpy.mock.calls.some((call) => call[0]?.kind === "investing.thesis.revision")).toBe(true)
+      expect(recordSpy.mock.calls.some((call) => call[0]?.kind === "investing.thesis.confidence")).toBe(true)
+      expect(updated.confidence?.appliedConviction).toBe("medium")
+      expect(updated.revisions[0]?.confidence.appliedConviction).toBe("medium")
+      expect(updated.revisions[0]?.confidence.reasons.some((reason) => reason.includes("downshifted"))).toBe(true)
+    })
+  })
+
+  test("rejects thesis revisions that do not carry evidence links", async () => {
+    await withThesisState(async () => {
+      expect(() =>
+        recordInvestingThesisRevision({
+          thesisKey: thesisKeyForSymbol("MSFT"),
+          symbol: "MSFT",
+          changeType: "initialize",
+          summary: "MSFT thesis without evidence.",
+          thesis: "This should fail because no evidence references were provided.",
+        }),
+      ).toThrow("Thesis revisions require at least one evidence link.")
     })
   })
 
@@ -214,9 +257,12 @@ describe("investing thesis ledger", () => {
       expect(thesis?.currentVersion).toBe(1)
       expect(thesis?.summary).toContain("NVDA thesis")
       expect(thesis?.valuation?.valuationCaseId).toContain("valuation_case:equity:nvda:")
+      expect(thesis?.confidence?.ruleVersion).toBe("thesis-confidence.v1")
       expect(thesis?.revisions[0]?.source.executionId).toBe(thesisExecution.id)
       expect(thesis?.revisions[0]?.source.artifactId).toBe(thesisExecution.artifactId)
       expect(thesis?.revisions[0]?.evidence.some((item) => item.kind === "valuation-packet")).toBe(true)
+      expect(thesis?.revisions[0]?.confidence.evidenceCount).toBeGreaterThan(0)
+      expect(thesisExecution.synthesis).toContain("confidenceRule=thesis-confidence.v1")
     })
   })
 })

src/domain/investing/executor.ts

@@ -383,7 +383,7 @@ async function buildSynthesis(input: {
 
   if (input.plan.workflow === "thesis-refresh") {
     const primarySymbol = normalizeSymbol(input.plan.symbols[0]);
-    if (primarySymbol) {
+    if (primarySymbol && input.evidence.some((item) => item.status === "completed")) {
       const thesisDraft = buildInvestingThesisDraft({
         symbol: primarySymbol,
         evidence: input.evidence,